@luvb2b quick question first : why do you have leasing revenue lower this quarter than Q2 and Q3? And why is interest expense also lower than Q3?
For the rest of my discussion, I am assuming no ZEV credits. After fixing an embarrasing mistake in my model (messed up x1000 and x1000000 multiplier) I have losses at $325M. The main difference is the amount of leased cars. I have it lower because of two reasons 1) higher share of sales in market that do not offer Tesla leasing (to be honest, I don't know if Norway is Tesla or 3rd party leasing) 2) higher proportion of inventory sales which I somehow convinced myself are more likely bought on a tradein or loan. A lower percentage of leases obviously translates in a higher automotive revenue stream which I have at nearly $3B. I also think you underestimate energy storage. This quarter the South Australian project drops and that alone represents easily $40M of revenue (but cost of goods too of course).
On the operational expense side, I have R&D slightly going up to account for more Grohman work shifting from external parties to internal development. Also maybe some emergency R&D costs for the battery assembly lines. For SG&A I have a modest increase. The effort to put out Model 3 starts to have its impact with new delivery structures, the current CFO isn't as focused on cash as the previous one and the rollout of superchargers continues (partially paid through SG&A as a marketing expense)
Finally I also don't have any tax provisions. They didn't do so (materially) last quarter. I suppose because enough capex spending offset liabilities (Gigafactory&Buffalo spending which grant tax breaks?). If that is true, they'll likely have the same thing this quarter.