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2020 Shipping Movements

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Look who's here!
camZeebrugge20201126_045500.jpg
 
I haven't really noticed that to be honest
I suppose the secret to my accuracy is the fact that I use hours in the calculation.

However, SFO-BLB is 8 days, allow 1 day for canal transit and allow 12 days to Zeebrugge.
With those figures you won't be far out. 21 days door to door - always has been, I reckon.

Days can be gained or lost depending on the time of departure - this is where using hours makes it a little more accurate.
Of course it all depends on the cruising speed and also to a degree, the route.
I don't rely on apps or websites to calculate ETAs but use the Lat/Lon and great circle calcs (haversine formula).
I stuck all the formulas into a spreadsheet and it does the rest.

On another topic, have you had any indications of an East coast run this quarter? I haven't and I no longer have my trainspotter however I'm not sure that they will attempt one as I am sensing some oversupply, in the UK at least.

That's very interesting, thanks for sharing.

Nothing from the East coast to Europe of interest so far, from what I've gathered the last two weeks. That is of course assuming no Tesla-ships will sail straight to Southampton. I've been looking in Newark only.
Hoegh Target is sailing Newark - Southampton, but I don't think a direct-UK ship happening.
 
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If the normal time from Zeebrugge to Southampton is 2 days, there's still time for PH to carry Teslas, since her ETA in Soton is 29th at 1400, which means it has until tomorrow at 1400 to load and depart.

For newbies (like me) Planned Movements - Southampton VTS - ABP Southampton
You're right. I was getting confused by Grand Aurora's Zeebrugge departure time on the 29th and forgetting that all vehicles should have been offloaded, and potentially unloaded on to another ship, by then.
 
GRAND AURORA docked this morning in Zeebrugge.
She is not due to depart Zeebrugge until 2200 on Saturday.
She is alongside Zeebrugge long enough to unload completely and she has yet to appear on the Southampton port schedule.

TOSCANA is ahead of schedule but it looks as though Zeebrugge can handle her. She will dock at 17:00 today.
She is presently just entering the Straits of Dover.
I am expecting her to unload completely before departing on Monday night .

GLOVIS CRYSTAL passed through the Mona Passage yesterday evening and entered the Atlantic maintaining just over 17kts.
Her course however was a little surprising and it appears to me that she intends to follow the longer rhumb line course across the Atlantic.
On the chart below the blue curved line is the shorter great circle track that is the usual route and the red line is the longer rhumb line track.
She is bang on the rhumb line track.
I don’t know why she has chosen this course but it has added a little bit of spice to our competition as on Saturday 28th she will be at least 300nm away from where I would have expected her to be!
Choosing to take a more easterly track at this time of year may actually prove to be a wise choice. I shall watch with interest.
Her current scheduled ETA for Zeebrugge is 5 Dec and Southampton probably a couple of days later.

Glovis Crystal Atlantic Progress .png


TANNHAUSER arrived off Suez on schedule yesterday and has now progressed as far as the Great Bitter Lake.
She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Dec.

Tannhauser Med Prog.png


RCC AMSTERDAM is on schedule to arrive at the entrance to the Panama Canal this evening.
She is making 16kts and is currently at the southernmost part of her voyage.
I expect her to drop anchor at the entrance and wait until early tomorrow morning when she should commence her canal transit.
I will post later today some more details of the canal, webcam links etc.
I expect her in Zeebrugge around 9 Dec and Southampton on 12 Dec

The RCC AMSTERDAM competition will close when she enters the canal locks tomorrow morning. ENTER HERE

Amst Pacif.png


GLOVIS SUN is making excellent progress down the Pacific coast.
In the last 24 hours she has averaged 18.5kts and is halfway down the Baja California peninsula.
There are no immediate weather concerns
I estimate she should arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Dec.

Enter the final competition of 2020! Click HERE to enter the GLOVIS SUN competition.

Glov Sun Pacific.png



GLOVIS CAPTAIN departed yesterday to Tianjin, China and was most likely the final ship to load at Pier 80 in 2020.
 
Feeder ships to Southampton

Unloading completely in Zeebrugge is not unusual. There a couple of choices: leaving the cars on the dock until the next Tesla chartered ship arrives to take them on to Southampton or buying space on other ships to take them to Southampton.
The preferred option is to wait for the next ship which in this case would be GLOVIS CRYSTAL but that would mean a significant delay to buyers who already have been notified of their delivery date. I don't think this will happen.
The next option is to buy space on another ship.
As it happens GRAND AURORA's next voyage is to Singapore, China and South Korea and she will be loading in Zeebrugge for that trip. She will also pick up in Bremerhaven and Southampton. She was originally scheduled to load in Southampton on 1 Dec which is why I am surprised she did not appear on the port schedule when it was released earlier this morning. If this ship is still coming to Southampton it would make sense to use it.
The alternative to that is to buy space on other ships inbound to Southampton which can be expensive. Due to the quantity of cars involved there are a couple of requirements, firstly the ship should depart from the 50X or 51X quays in Zeebrugge. This may mean moving the ship from one quay to another. It is always preferable to move the ship closer to the cars than vice-versa as it shortens loading time and doesn't put mileage on the cars. Secondly, the ship must unload in the Western docks in Southampton. If the ship is operating to the Eastern docks it must move to the Western docks to unload it's Teslas.
So lets list the ships currently scheduled Zeebrugge - Southampton and whittle them down.

MANON 27-Nov-2020 03:15 35
HORIZON HIGHWAY 27-Nov-2020 06:30 40/41
GLORIOUS LEADER 28-Nov-2020 13:00 35
POLARIS HIGHWAY 29-Nov-2020 14:00 38/9
CARMEN 01-Dec-2020 05:30 44
AUTOSTAR 01-Dec-2020 06:15 25
FREEDOM 01-Dec-2020 11:00 35

We can rule out MANON and HORIZON HIGHWAY just on the timings and we can rule out GLORIOUS LEADER because it is docked on the other side in Zeebrugge. We don't know where CARMEN and FREEDOM will dock in Zeebrugge and their timings look a little suspect too. I suspect POLARIS HIGHWAY will dock on the wrong side in Zeebrugge.
It can be seen that all the ships are heading for the Eastern docks in Southampton however looking at the inter-port movements we can see that AUTOSTAR is scheduled to move to the Western Docks pier 105 at 1300 on 1 Dec. She is also scheduled to use quay 504 in Zeebrugge too.
So of all the ships currently scheduled AUTOSTAR looks the most likely suspect at the moment.
If GRAND AURORA appears on the Southampton port schedule she will go straight to the top of the list of suspects.
Maintaining an eye on where ships dock in Zeebrugge and on the Southampton port schedule which is updated every 10 minutes is order of the day.