2021 MS 19” Tempest Delivery Tracking

[MarcG]

You raise a good point - I felt like the rug was pulled out when they cancelled the Plaid+ - I would have gladly waited for the 4680, <9s version of the car. If they do decide they've got 4680 production in good enough shape to launch an actual Plaid+ at the end of 2022, I'll be super pissed.

I would be annoyed too, having committed to getting a Plaid this year. However, signs are pointing to a "no" on the 4680-based Plaid+ for the foreseeable future, due to:

• Current state of 4680 production (still in its infancy)
• Higher-priority products that are absolutely predicated on 4680 availability (Semi, CT, Roadster 2.0, potentially Berlin-made Y, etc.)
• Low redesign effort ROI on a proved Model S chassis based on 18650 (yes, I'm keeping the extra zero in there) to create a low volume product, which will further devaluate Roadster 2.0

So I'm thinking more and more that a 4680-based Plaid+ will not exist in the near/mid-term future, if at all.

Maybe some day, when ALL Tesla products are based on 4680s (or beyond), and the S/X chassis is redesigned for 4680s.

But we're probably talking nearly a decade from now. Plus the usual Elon-time delays

 

[serendipitous]

I would be annoyed too, having committed to getting a Plaid this year. However, signs are pointing to a "no" on the 4680-based Plaid+ for the foreseeable future, due to:

• Current state of 4680 production (still in its infancy)
• Higher-priority products that are absolutely predicated on 4680 availability (Semi, CT, Roadster 2.0, potentially Berlin-made Y, etc.)
• Low redesign effort ROI on a proved Model S chassis based on 18650 (yes, I'm keeping the extra zero in there) to create a low volume product, which will further devaluate Roadster 2.0)

I agree - that's why I was OK letting my converted order go through. In the meantime, we wait...

 

[T-Racer]

The proposed EV credit change as I read it if enacted as it currently stands would apply to EVs purchased after May 24, 2021. This essentially removes the cap on number of EVs sold per manufacturer. Beginning 12/31/2021 there are additional rebates and a restriction of the MSRP being under $80K for any rebate. Please comment if anyone has a different read on this:

Text - S.2118 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Clean Energy for America Act

Text for S.2118 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Clean Energy for America Act

www.congress.gov

A minor update to the EV credit as the infrastructure bills move along. There is some conflicting reporting that R Senator Deb Fisher of NE introduced an amendment to the larger infrastructure bill last night. The amendment passed 51-48 with 3, Ds joining 48 Rs restricts the credit to cars priced under $40K and only to those with incomes under $100K. Obviously they must think of this as a program for the poor rather than an incentive to reduce greenhouse gases and harm to the environment.

What is missing from some versions of the article is that the amendment is non-binding. According to Ars Technica, it is very unlikely to be included in the house bill. So at the end of the day, the credit seems to still be surviving.

No EV tax credit if you earn more than $100,000, says US Senate

The amendment would also limit the tax credit to EVs that cost less than $40,000.

arstechnica.com

 

[RobK]

A minor update to the EV credit as the infrastructure bills move along. There is some conflicting reporting that R Senator Deb Fisher of NE introduced an amendment to the larger infrastructure bill last night. The amendment passed 51-48 with 3, Ds joining 48 Rs restricts the credit to cars priced under $40K and only to those with incomes under $100K. Obviously they must think of this as a program for the poor rather than an incentive to reduce greenhouse gases and harm to the environment.

What is missing from some versions of the article is that the amendment is non-binding. According to Ars Technica, it is very unlikely to be included in the house bill. So at the end of the day, the credit seems to still be surviving.

No EV tax credit if you earn more than $100,000, says US Senate

The amendment would also limit the tax credit to EVs that cost less than $40,000.

arstechnica.com

$7,500 tax credit is good but to most of the people buying MS LR or MS Plaid it would not move the needle much or sway their decision, IMHO

 

[Drew-MS]

You raise a good point - I felt like the rug was pulled out when they cancelled the Plaid+ - I would have gladly waited for the 4680, <9s version of the car. If they do decide they've got 4680 production in good enough shape to launch an actual Plaid+ at the end of 2022, I'll be super pissed.

I initially ordered the plaid+ as well. Since Tesla is having a hard time filling orders now, we would have been waiting a very long time for the plaid+. Late 2022 might not have been realistic tbh.

 

[jebinc]

Got a “439” VIN assigned this afternoon. At the very same time, my long standing, and solid EDD range of 8/14-8/21 changed to January, when the VIN was assigned. What to believe?! Did anyone have this happen to them and it ends up being a positive experience?!

 

[Danlbrau]

$7,500 tax credit is good but to most of the people buying MS LR or MS Plaid it would not move the needle much or sway their decision, IMHO

And that is one reason certain politicians want to limit it. It’s just a giveaway to the rich (as they define them), and a giveaway that won’t affect my decision whatsoever. Although I would gladly take it if offered

 

[yerEVan]

Got a “439” VIN assigned this afternoon. At the very same time, my long standing, and solid EDD range of 8/14-8/21 changed to January, when the VIN was assigned. What to believe?! Did anyone have this happen to them and it ends up being a positive experience?!

I’m surprised you got that close of an EDD with such a recent order. But loco that it’s a Jan with a vin. Probably worth calling the main number to get clarification since you have a vin.

 

[jebinc]

I’m surprised you got that close of an EDD with such a recent order. But loco that it’s a Jan with a vin. Probably worth calling the main number to get clarification since you have a vin.

I figure the VIN means it left the production line today (and tracking system) and is being transferred to the transportation tracking system. The new "January" matches the original EDD when I placed the order. The VIN sequence provided makes sense for a near term delivery. I figure the August EDD range will return by morning, or when the new tracker picks it up.

 

[cwanja]

Got a “439” VIN assigned this afternoon. At the very same time, my long standing, and solid EDD range of 8/14-8/21 changed to January, when the VIN was assigned. What to believe?! Did anyone have this happen to them and it ends up being a positive experience?!

Someone got a VIN (I think @Venom) and delivery bounced to February. Not sure the current status. I doubt it is real and probably poor coding In the estimator.

 

[jebinc]

Someone got a VIN (I think @Venom) and delivery bounced to February. Not sure the current status. I doubt it is real and probably poor coding In the estimator.

I think it happens when the car leaves the production tracking system, and has yet to be picked up by the transportation tracking system. As a result, you get the first month EDD that you received when you first placed your order. For me, that was January.

 

[cwanja]

I think it happens when the car leaves the production tracking system, and has yet to be picked up by the transportation tracking system. As a result, you get the first month EDD that you received when you first placed your order. For me, that was January.

Here is another case 2021 Refresh S LR Delivery Tracking no clue what their original order date estimate was. With a 1148 RN, I doubt it was February. Seems more like a bug.

Edit @jebinc - here is some who went through this yesterday and said it updated today for them. I would suspect it will go away in the morning

2021 Refresh S LR Delivery Tracking

EDD getting pushed back daily, but Sept 2 date holding. No VIN yet. Aug 26 - Sept 2 ViN coming to you in next 1-2 days, if @jebinc theory holds true! Crossing fingers for you!

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Venom]

I think it happens when the car leaves the production tracking system, and has yet to be picked up by the transportation tracking system. As a result, you get the first month EDD that you received when you first placed your order. For me, that was January.

I ordered in January

 

[MarcG]

I think it happens when the car leaves the production tracking system, and has yet to be picked up by the transportation tracking system. As a result, you get the first month EDD that you received when you first placed your order. For me, that was January.

Yeah VIN assignments typically happens upon the vehicle being built.

This is what a Tesla Advisor wrote me regarding VIN timing and subsequent delivery timeframe at the factory:

“It normally happens when the car comes off the production line. You will have time because the vehicle needs to clear inspection.”

 

[yerEVan]

Well. Moved from 8/25-9/8 to this morning….

Estimated Delivery: September 03 - September 23.​

Went from a 2 week window to a 3 week.

@DukeofURL i wonder if yours changed as well.

 

[DukeofURL]

Well. Moved from 8/25-9/8 to this morning….

Estimated Delivery: September 03 - September 23.​

Went from a 2 week window to a 3 week.

@DukeofURL i wonder if yours changed as well.

Mine seems to change every morning, in line with something I read on one of the threads here that the "new" estimation process updates early morning EDT time (although that doesn't make much sense to use EDT for a west coast based company, but it seems to be true regardless, haha). Today it tightened back up to a 2 week window 2 weeks out again. Updated in sig and spreadsheet.
Edit: yesterday it was a 3 week window that was 3 weeks out

 

[fldude]

Went from 9/12 to 9/30 this morning :

September 06 - September 26​

 

[2101Guy]

For those not in california/west coast who get a vin close to end of quarter/delivery date showing as right before end of quarter? May want to be cautious about assuming that you will actually get your car at that time. Just based on past history, as your car/vin quite possibly will get sold to someone closer to Fremont.

 

[cwanja]

For those not in california/west coast who get a vin close to end of quarter/delivery date showing as right before end of quarter? May want to be cautious about assuming that you will actually get your car at that time. Just based on past history, as your car/vin quite possibly will get sold to someone closer to Fremont.

You must be a joy at parties. Raining on everyones parade.

Totally kidding, the sad part is that is mostly true.

 

[jebinc]

Yeah VIN assignments typically happens upon the vehicle being built.

This is what a Tesla Advisor wrote me regarding VIN timing and subsequent delivery timeframe at the factory:

“It normally happens when the car comes off the production line. You will have time because the vehicle needs to clear inspection.”

@MarcG Yep, EDD range reverted back to something that aligns with the VIN assignment yesterday ==> Today, 8/12-8/17, just as my Seattle deliveries model predicted.