There are still plenty of cars on the dockside in Drammen and I suspect another load will have arrived today.
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2021 Shipping Movements
- Thread starter Mr Miserable
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Do they need to get moved from Drammen to delivery locations? I suspect yes.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
I'm not Miserable but back when they actually had any X/S to ship they shared the same ships. Of course this quarter they didn't have any of those because of the refresh. With no Y sold in Europe it seems like they've all been 3 this quarter. Possibly a couple of X/S leftovers on some ship early in the quarter.
In Q1 the UK was only supplied with Model 3s (SR+ and LR) from China.
No cars came to the UK from SFO.
Not quite true, X/S were shipped partially assembled in containers from Houston to Rotterdam whereas Model 3's were shipped complete from Pier 80 to Southampton. Clearly no X/S were shipped in Q1 and with the closure of the Tilburg assembly line I would imagine that future RHD X/S will be shipped to the UK from Pier 80 via Zeebrugge but I'm not expecting any this year.
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2021_M3P
Member
Hello Mr Miserable,
Obviously this is a very interesting situation unfolding with the Suez being blocked. If this continues on much longer, and of course suggestions are that this could go on for weeks, how much of an impact or rather how far into 2021, is this likely to impact shipping into Europe? Would Tesla and other companies consider the longer, and more expensive route? Purely from a selfish point of view (although I am interested in the bigger picture as well), is this likely to impact Tesla MIC orders destined to arrive in GB mid to late May? I know a lot of the answers would just be a ‘best guess’ at this stage, but of course this is not the first time the Suez has been blocked and I would be interested to understand from your knowledge and past experience, what the impacts could be and what options companies... particularly Tesla.. might consider?
Obviously this is a very interesting situation unfolding with the Suez being blocked. If this continues on much longer, and of course suggestions are that this could go on for weeks, how much of an impact or rather how far into 2021, is this likely to impact shipping into Europe? Would Tesla and other companies consider the longer, and more expensive route? Purely from a selfish point of view (although I am interested in the bigger picture as well), is this likely to impact Tesla MIC orders destined to arrive in GB mid to late May? I know a lot of the answers would just be a ‘best guess’ at this stage, but of course this is not the first time the Suez has been blocked and I would be interested to understand from your knowledge and past experience, what the impacts could be and what options companies... particularly Tesla.. might consider?
I'm not expecting a shipment to depart from Shanghai in the next 3 weeks. It will take just under 3 weeks for the shipments to get to Suez and so I think we have about 5-6 weeks to clear the canal and the backlog - therefore at the moment I am hopeful it will not affect. Where it may still have an affect is the delay to existing shipping schedules ie the ships will be out of position. This may cause (more) congestion within the port of Shanghai with just the 2 berths available. Fortuneately at the moment there is plenty of spare RoRo shipping capacity available to call on from S Korea to meet Tesla's target sailing dates. We had 3 shipments to the UK in Q1 and at the moment I am expecting just 2 in Q2.
If the canal is not clear by this time next week then a contingency plan may need to be produced but for 5000 cars it might be easier, cheaper and less risk to just not produce them and reallocate the production rather than risk them getting held up, incurring large costs and be undelivered by the end of Q2, but we are not anywhere near a decision point for that to happen, yet.
If the canal is not clear by this time next week then a contingency plan may need to be produced but for 5000 cars it might be easier, cheaper and less risk to just not produce them and reallocate the production rather than risk them getting held up, incurring large costs and be undelivered by the end of Q2, but we are not anywhere near a decision point for that to happen, yet.
2021_M3P
Member
Thank you Mr Miserable, that it is a really interesting insight and I really appreciate you taking the time to give your thoughts on this situation
Due to his dedication to international shipping, I’m half-expecting that’s Mr Miserable who has rocked up in his digger trying to clear the Ever Given’s bow...
(As always, great to read your informative posts sir!)
(As always, great to read your informative posts sir!)
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The situation in Suez is much more serious than I first thought and it has apparently been made worse by local efforts to get the ship moving again. Silt has been churned up by the tugs and channelled under the EVER GIVEN making more of the hull to be stuck fast. This in turn has put more stress on the hull. It looks more and more likely that the only option to refloat the ship will be to remove some (a couple of thousand) containers first. That will require careful planning to minimise stresses on the hull which will probably mean that the containers will need to be removed evenly from the entire length of the ship. Big floating cranes, barges, accommodation, etc - it's going to be a big operation and it has potential to take weeks.
The good news is that the Discovery Channel will be on site soon.
They will be making a documentary on how the world's cleverest engineers and unshaven salvage experts with a pleasing variety of different coloured helmets were flown in to get the canal open again, at any cost. As always a complex combination of levers and pulleys, that has never been tried before, might just work...
If I had a ship heading for the traffic jam I would now be ordering her to head for the Cape.
I see that some ships routing from the Far East that were heading for Suez have already made the decision to route via the Horn. If you make the decision early enough it will add about 8 days to a voyage to Europe. Most of the ships however are still heading for Suez to join the queue.
Ships routing to the Far East are still piling up in the Mediterranean with very few turning around and heading for the Horn. It seems that the priority here is to get to Port Said as quickly as possible to stake your place in the queue. Possession of an early slot may turn out to be a very valuable asset.
When the canal does open again it will be interesting to see how free market forces affect the price of a canal transit. I suspect it will take sometime for the horse trading to subside and the price return to normal.
The route from Shanghai to Southampton via the Cape will add about 8 days to the voyage overall and would normally cost about 25% more.
Routing via the Panama Canal will take about the same amount of time from Shanghai but with the cost of the Panama Canal transit (a 6 figure sum) added to the equation it would be hard to justify.
Whatever, transportation costs between the Far East and Europe will rise significantly for the next month or so at least. Tesla will have to make a decision soon on whether it can absorb these extra costs. Would it be technically possible to supply the UK from Fremont for Q2? I doubt it. Parts would probably need to be shipped from Shanghai to Fremont and retooling would cause extra delays too for a relatively small production run. Would it be easier to decide not to supply the UK in Q2 at all and reroute the RHD production to Japan, Aus/NZ? Are the ships designated for Q2 shipments so large that the increased cost per vehicle is bearable?
The relief for Tesla is that they don't have a $130m shipment stuck in the traffic jam incurring extra costs every day. It just adds to the rationale to get Berlin up and running asap.
The good news is that the Discovery Channel will be on site soon.
They will be making a documentary on how the world's cleverest engineers and unshaven salvage experts with a pleasing variety of different coloured helmets were flown in to get the canal open again, at any cost. As always a complex combination of levers and pulleys, that has never been tried before, might just work...
If I had a ship heading for the traffic jam I would now be ordering her to head for the Cape.
I see that some ships routing from the Far East that were heading for Suez have already made the decision to route via the Horn. If you make the decision early enough it will add about 8 days to a voyage to Europe. Most of the ships however are still heading for Suez to join the queue.
Ships routing to the Far East are still piling up in the Mediterranean with very few turning around and heading for the Horn. It seems that the priority here is to get to Port Said as quickly as possible to stake your place in the queue. Possession of an early slot may turn out to be a very valuable asset.
When the canal does open again it will be interesting to see how free market forces affect the price of a canal transit. I suspect it will take sometime for the horse trading to subside and the price return to normal.
The route from Shanghai to Southampton via the Cape will add about 8 days to the voyage overall and would normally cost about 25% more.
Routing via the Panama Canal will take about the same amount of time from Shanghai but with the cost of the Panama Canal transit (a 6 figure sum) added to the equation it would be hard to justify.
Whatever, transportation costs between the Far East and Europe will rise significantly for the next month or so at least. Tesla will have to make a decision soon on whether it can absorb these extra costs. Would it be technically possible to supply the UK from Fremont for Q2? I doubt it. Parts would probably need to be shipped from Shanghai to Fremont and retooling would cause extra delays too for a relatively small production run. Would it be easier to decide not to supply the UK in Q2 at all and reroute the RHD production to Japan, Aus/NZ? Are the ships designated for Q2 shipments so large that the increased cost per vehicle is bearable?
The relief for Tesla is that they don't have a $130m shipment stuck in the traffic jam incurring extra costs every day. It just adds to the rationale to get Berlin up and running asap.
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It would appear that the UK canal system is not immune to this type of blockage either.
2021_M3P
Member
Looks like everything is on the move again in Egypt - great news for all those waiting for Q2 deliveries to U.K. and Europe. I realise there is now a knock on impact to ships, especially as many are now out of position.
I think you calculated that it would take 5/6 weeks (presumably 4/5 weeks now) for May deliveries to reach the Suez Canal. Based on the Ever Given continuing her journey (hopefully) in the next 24 hours.. in your opinion, have we now (likely) avoided any impact to May delivery dates, as a result of this situation?
Until the EVER GIVEN is moved into the Great Bitter Lake the canal will still be restricted. Damage to the canal banks will need to be repaired and dredging of the fairway will need to be conducted. There is immense pressure to just get the canal open again and dot the i's and cross the t's in due course however this attitude carries significant risk and the probability of short term closures in the near future. There is also pressure to dispense with the international team who's advice has been selectively ignored by 'the committee of no apparent skill' who seem to be making key decisions here. Quite how the ship ended up where it did has not been satisfactorily explained either.
Nevertheless, I think Tesla shipments from Shanghai should be able to be shipped on schedule and stand a minimal risk of delay at the canal when they transit in May.
2021_M3P
Member
The whole thing does seem incredible, and I am sure there is a lot more to come out over the next few days / weeks.
but most importantly, your view is that with a prevailing wind... we should all still be good for a May delivery date
I expect the first ship to pitch up at Pier 80 around 10 April or thereabouts and arrive in Zeebrugge around 7 May.
The 2021 hurricane season will kick off in mid-May just to add to the excitement. Traditionally hurricane season didn't start until 1 June however 7 out of the last 10 years have seen hurricanes develop before 1 June and last year we had 2. We are also still in a La Nina year, so hold on to your hat!
On that basis I expect the first 3 ships to have a clear run but the last few ships of Q2 will be running the gauntlet.
The Tesla ships have been very lucky over the last couple of years and have not been seriously affected by the hurricanes in the Caribbean or North Atlantic. Ships nowadays can easily outrun a hurricane but nevertheless a ship needs good captaincy and good timing to dodge the effects.
In Q1 we witnessed a string of (unusually) good decisions being made of the various bridges to avoid the worst of the Atlantic weather and so lets hope that run continues.
I hope the 1st ship is not a big one ie one that because of it's width will have to use the new locks in Panama since there is some heavy maintenance scheduled around the time the 1st ship will arrive there. Although the outage is only scheduled for 10 hours it doesn't take much to go wrong to introduce a severe delay. The trouble with the new locks is that there is no redundancy - there is only one lane unlike the old locks that have two. We have just seen in Suez the problem of not having a dual system (the bulk of the Suez canal has dual channels except for the southernmost portion which is a single channel only).
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