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2022 Shipping Movements

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Confirmed yes, but optimistically, we know that some RHD made it onto the last ship THEBEN so they have switched to RHD output.

1 ship has recently departed RCC Europe heading to Southhampton which could be all RHD and another 1 if not 2 are loading. Optimistically there could be around 8k RHD incoming, if not slightly more. We can only hope and will find out by Friday.

You would also hope that MIG MYLR would be scheduled to pick up some slack for the EU in Q3 too so Shanghai can focus on local markets and RHD in APAC and UK. You would also hope they would plan for this and pick up pace for RHD. This post was sponsored by hope.
We don’t know if there was RHD on TheBen. A higher res photo come out after that showed all LHD, the same section of cars where people thought they were RHD cars.

We don’t know if RCC Europe is coming to the UK before it’s next voyage, yet.

As of right now, we don’t know if any cars are out at sea coming to the UK. Time, updated shipping ports and VINs will let us know. There is certainly still time to get 8k cars to the UK, but we have no facts yet.
 
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No but it makes sense that the first VINs to appear relate to the first ship.
Since that ship is heading to Koper, it also makes sense that customers in S Europe are getting them.
Rumor was that 300 cars are allocated to Romania (fingers crossed to that, but I highly doubt it). In this scenario, I was told by my consultant that even orders from February 22 will be fulfilled (I have a personal interest in that). In order for you to see the general order status in our country, there are about 160 unfulfilled orders from 21 and about 100 unfulfilled orders from January to February 22. Situation does not look as bad as in other countries. I think Glovis Splendor will make many Romanians very happy.
 
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Mr M : FWIW there is an article on Electrek May. 23rd 2022 7:00 am PT :

"Tesla is back to ramping up production at Gigafactory Shanghai. The automaker could reportedly be back to pre-shutdown level as soon as tomorrow and plans to ramp up to new records later this week.
...
Now in a new memo, the automaker says that it will ramp up daily output to 2,600 units as soon as Tuesday (via Reuters):




"
The article confirms that Tesla last week aimed to increase production to 2600 cars/day on 23 May by introducing a second shift. However it now says this will happen on Tuesday, which is 24 May. This is in comparison to the 2000 cars it was producing with 3 shifts pre-lockdown. The flurry of shipping activity over the last 10 days gave me hope that production had already ramped up.
I was full of confidence that Tesla would achieve the new target but I received an email from a correspondent in Shanghai earlier today which was totally disheartening when he described the realities of a Shanghai lockdown. It continues to be really bad there with forced removal to quarantine of entire families if even a single neighbour tests positive. Apartments are being 'disinfected' internally by teams liberally spraying chemicals over all surfaces whether that be bedding or a TV or even foodstuffs left exposed in a kitchen. Getting a permit to travel to work that is regarded as essential requires hours of queuing and the permit has limited validity. There is a real fear of contracting the virus because of the draconian quarantine which is imposed on not only the individual but family and work colleagues and their families. It has got to the stage where it is regarded as shameful to catch it. Closed-loop factory arrangements are not widely available.
I cannot see Tesla getting a regular supply chain with the current disruptive situation in Shanghai and I don't think the closed-loop lockdown is sustainable. I would like to know the contingency plan should a single closed-loop worker test positive. In any case I think the production ramp-up will have missed the main Euro export window (another ship to Koper is possible) and so the bulk of increased production will go to satisfy local markets. MORNING CLARA which should load Teslas for E Australia will commence loading late tomorrow night.
 
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Confirmed yes, but optimistically, we know that some RHD made it onto the last ship THEBEN so they have switched to RHD output.

1 ship has recently departed RCC Europe heading to Southhampton which could be all RHD and another 1 if not 2 are loading. Optimistically there could be around 8k RHD incoming, if not slightly more. We can only hope and will find out by Friday.

You would also hope that MIG MYLR would be scheduled to pick up some slack for the EU in Q3 too so Shanghai can focus on local markets and RHD in APAC and UK. You would also hope they would plan for this and pick up pace for RHD. This post was sponsored by N
Not really answering my questions about order numbers in the UK but ok...
Q1 in the UK was about 20,000 cars I believe. I think Q2 was going to be just as big. Obviously that number won’t be hit now. But Q3 will be massive.
 
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The article confirms that Tesla last week aimed to increase production to 2600 cars/day on 23 May by introducing a second shift. However it now says this will happen on Tuesday, which is 24 May. This is in comparison to the 2000 cars it was producing with 3 shifts pre-lockdown. The flurry of shipping activity over the last 10 days gave me hope that production had already ramped up.
I was full of confidence that Tesla would achieve the new target but I received an email from a correspondent in Shanghai earlier today which was totally disheartening when he described the realities of a Shanghai lockdown. It continues to be really bad there with forced removal to quarantine of entire families if even a single neighbour tests positive. Apartments are being 'disinfected' internally by teams liberally spraying chemicals over all surfaces whether that be bedding or a TV or even foodstuffs left exposed in a kitchen. Getting a permit to travel to work that is regarded as essential requires hours of queuing and the permit has limited validity. There is a real fear of contracting the virus because of the draconian quarantine which is imposed on not only the individual but family and work colleagues and their families. It has got to the stage where it is regarded as shameful to catch it. Closed-loop factory arrangements are not widely available.
I cannot see Tesla getting a regular supply chain with the current disruptive situation in Shanghai and I don't think the closed-loop lockdown is sustainable. I would like to know the contingency plan should a single closed-loop worker test positive. In any case I think the production ramp-up will have missed the main Euro export window (another ship to Koper is possible) and so the bulk of increased production will go to satisfy local markets. MORNING CLARA which should load Teslas for E Australia will commence loading late tomorrow night.
No details on protocols. But it does look like it’s ramping.

 
about 60000 in Europe for Q1 but we have Berlin starting slowly, so perhaps 50000 to deliver in all Europe so about 12 ships minimum

Q1 in the UK was about 20,000 cars I believe. I think Q2 was going to be just as big. Obviously that number won’t be hit now. But Q3 will be massive.

Sorry, not to be negative, but why do you think UK will receive a third of all EU? No idea how they actually prioritize..

The UK was just over 30% of all of Europe sales last quarter.
Thanks! Yes, reconciling all above numbers make sense. So hopefully every 3rd ship leaving Shanghai should be UK bound to continue to even things out...
 
GLOVIS SPLENDOR is now confirmed to arrive in Koper on 01 Jun and it would appear that order matching and the VIN allocation process for this shipment is underway. I would expect deliveries to be limited to southern Europe but who knows? This is Tesla. I expect the ship to unload completely at Koper. Anyway, the ship remains on schedule and should enter the calm waters of the Gulf of Aden tomorrow morning.

Glovis Splendor Leg 2.png


THEBEN is bound for Zeebrugge and will arrive there on 14 Jun. She will pass Banda Aceh tomorrow morning and enter a very choppy Bay of Bengal. It's not bad weather per se, it's just a little uncomfortable and as a result she may have a reduced speed for a couple of days. She's making 17 kts at the moment which will give her some time in the bank and in any case her ETA of 04 Jun for Suez remains easily achievable.

The THEBEN competition remains open! It's free and so don't miss out. Click HERE to enter. Thanks for those who entered after my plea last night! We have 77 entries so far which is much lower than I would expect for the first competition of the quarter, and so I assume some folk are keeping their powder dry. Remember though it is the first person who claims the winning minor square who will win and so I wouldn't wait too long!

Theben leg 2.png


RCC EUROPE Just a reminder about this ship. We don't actually know for sure that she is carrying Teslas, however my money says she is. We also don't actually know where she is headed, but we do know it is likely to be to NW Europe based on her next scheduled voyage. So she could be heading to Southampton, or Zeebrugge, or both. I think the latter in all probability but we won't know for sure until she departs Suez. Before then of course we should have an idea because of order matching and VIN activity. If she is heading to Southampton I would expect her to arrive around 17 Jun. For the moment though she's heading to Singapore.

RCC Eur Leg 1.png


HORIZON LEADER remains offshore waiting for the call to dock at Shanghai South. Since these are the last few days we can expect to see a departure to NW Europe this quarter I'm hoping that is where she will head to, however time is running out....

VENUS LEADER was on my watch list for a possible shipment to Dubai however that looks less likely now. She's heading to Oman initially which means she will probably end up calling at Jebel Ali in due course but she's not what I'm looking for. There is still plenty of time for a Dubai shipment. I was interested to note the factory gate dates of 16/17 May for the Singapore cars posted earlier. It's a 6 day voyage to Singapore and so I can't see how they can have arrived in Singapore already. RCC EUROPE was the first ship to depart after that date otherwise THEMIS LEADER, arr SIN on Sunday, after a very slow voyage, is a suspect.

It's a little disappointing to note that MORNING CLARA has had her itinerary changed. Her first stop is now S Korea which may indicate a smaller shipment to Australia (Brisbane 09 Jun, PK 13 Jun and Melbourne on 17 Jun). She's due to load at the Haitong terminal tomorrow night. I know that Tesla Australia quoshed all hopes for this quarter but let's hope that some cars make it onboard this vessel.

Finally a big thank you to @Frizzy for making the Google map happen- great skills and far more accurate than others out there! I will refer to it from now on!
 
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