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4 months left in 2020 to make a Tesla FSD on city streets

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LKA should not be compared to Tesla's EAD. The lane keep assist systems just assist you, they don't drive the highway for you. They all bounce around because that's how they work. They sense a line on the right, they steer left and then the same thing on the other side.

Supercruise would be a better comparison.

Well LKA on the eniro I quoted did not bounce in the lane for me and was perfectly able to drive most of the journey on motorways and country roads, it was smooth. The Tesla is smooth but it just tries to do more but cant quite get it right yet.
 
Stating Tesla’s FSD system is “capable of learning and making decisions on the fly” isn’t the same as saying one’s car is “learning on the fly”.

Behavioral (thinking) changes from the learning of the FSD are limited to discrete updates, currently. Applications of 5G should change this.

On what basis do you conclude 5G is going to be relevant? 0 teslas today have the HW for it, I've seen no mention in any bit of code related to it among those with access to said code (Green for example), and having cars that individually learn would be a nightmare for troubleshooting anything.



Right, which needs people to use its system Ike the poster said.

Except, no, it doesn't.

You can drive around in a base SR that doesn't even have autopilot (let alone FSD) and it can still collect all that campaign data just as easily.
 
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So, we're at in inflection in the Tesla trust curve?

I've always treated FSD as an assist, which I find very helpful in NOA on freeways where I need it most. And now it's gradually doing more on city streets, not always for the better. For whatever reason, I've not been plagued with "phantom breaking" - the phantoms haven't broken my car into pieces, or even slammed the brakes.

I chose to be involved with this revolutionary moving target AI - Robotics project. People who expect final solutions shouldn't. The automation in a Tesla isn't just AP, and I like all of it. Elon is right to keep his eyes on long term objectives that haven't been done yet.

The unpredictability of dense city driving makes L5 autonomy so difficult that it may never be practical at a near-zero kill rate with 2020 technology.

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But I've seen it handle really messy multi-lane 1 MPH freeway entrance merges surprisingly well.

The value to Tesla of autonomous "RoboTaxis" would be huge. But for me? Not much at all.
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I tell people to save their money and dont buy.
Its not worth it. I bought AP when it was 3k last year before they started including it.
I wasted my money. Without auto lane change AP sucks imo. I hardly use it.
Yet many still believe in the dream coming real in a few months.
 
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We are in that same position now as I was buying my 2019 Model 3 from the Tesla website last year. Knowing that as stated by Elon that the car would self drive by the end of 2019. How confident does everyone feel? You see if I look overall at what my car could do then in terms of AP FSD and now it displays road cones, dust bins and traffic lights. It still phantom breaks, tries to sometimes steer off the road in AP for no good reason, doesn't recognise speed limit signs and at motorway speeds suddenly slows when it loses the speed limit. All of these are smoother with basic lane keeping assist and traffic aware cruise control methods in other cars currently. (Also experienced in an eniro it has smoother AP currently) It also parks worse than a 2017 ford focus. All of these things are from actual experience and are the reality of my ownership. But will my full self driving computer model 3 be able to drive across London on its own this year? I place the marker now in the sand and await the fiction to turn to real fact. Because I am on the edge of bailing out here if I am honest because reality with AP for me is that it has not improved much in almost a calendar year making the same mistakes.
Theres a better chance that $TSLA goes back to $200.
 
Theres a better chance that $TSLA goes back to $200.

Well I am not a shareholder just an owner of a model 3. I have my doubts at a large drop as Tesla are on the up on multiple technology fronts, cars, solar, storage and soon it seems maybe electricity supplier and insurance??. I suppose if they were to let this kind of quality control with the cars go on and went another year with no FSD fruit maybe. But overall the cars are well received it just depends on how much tolerance you have. I mean on this 2020 subject it seems most don't believe in it by years end but believe it will be achieved in the coming years. Constant retro fitting of hardware would probably be needed for which I suppose FSD customers have pre paid for if the software is worth less. Evidence is there with AP2 to AP3 upgrades, Tesla are trying not to leave long term owners behind. So there is a lot of good will in there. I think as testers AP should not be put further out of reach making it more expensive when clearly its not as good as other cars in some area's. Like with auto parking, very limited summon its more expensive now and has been left for years. Granted in the EU its been hurt / limited but did they do that because it wasnt ready for prime time? Damn this is a hard choice to make personally right now. Especially when my complaint has been upheld and I can part ways with mine and reset with no loss. Honestly in the EV space its not exactly like you can get a better overall car. All other cars turn up on the market atm with a OK that is good. Not a full on battery day epic show where the world tunes in and says hell yea for 1 hour, the internet goes nuts, super car records are broken and actually makes EV's popular. I have that faith with SpaceX they are going to mars and make things there with such quality an vision like I have never seen. Model 3 probably costs as much as a grid fin there though lol.

I think the share price probably will go up again. As long as the service centres keep good coffee stocks.
 
Why do these threads always devolve into 90% of the posts saying "FSD is a waste of money" and the "horse and buggy I drove last week performed better"?

There are plenty of other threads where you can go complain about FSD. The subject of this one is if FSD will be feature complete in 4 months. Based on Elon's definition, feature complete basically means a car that can perform the following at least some of the time:

1) Navigate out of a parking spot
2) Turn on city roads
3) Lane keep on city roads and highways
4) Navigate highway entrance/exit ramps
4) Stop at stop signs and lights
5) Park itself

All of these items except #2 are already feature complete. It's not perfect and doesn't work 100% of the time, but it does work most of the time. And yes, it still requires driver monitoring.

So if all the FSD team needs to do is accurately make turns at intersections >0% of the time, then I could see that happening by the end of the year.
 
full FSD in 2020?!?... I needed a good laugh, thanks!

I purchased FSD and as time goes on, the further I believe FSD (Level 5) is from reality. If they ever do figure it out, Tesla is going to need to retrofit a lot of cars with whatever upgraded tech is necessary.
 
Why do these threads always devolve into 90% of the posts saying "FSD is a waste of money" and the "horse and buggy I drove last week performed better"?

Because the majority of Tesla owners 1) like their cars and 2) have better things to do than find threads to bitch and ruminate in. What we get here are the scholastics, the literalists, the residual buyer's remorse cases, the doubters. And even some chronic malcontents :)
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We are in that same position now as I was buying my 2019 Model 3 from the Tesla website last year. Knowing that as stated by Elon that the car would self drive by the end of 2019. How confident does everyone feel? You see if I look overall at what my car could do then in terms of AP FSD and now it displays road cones, dust bins and traffic lights. It still phantom breaks, tries to sometimes steer off the road in AP for no good reason, doesn't recognise speed limit signs and at motorway speeds suddenly slows when it loses the speed limit. All of these are smoother with basic lane keeping assist and traffic aware cruise control methods in other cars currently. (Also experienced in an eniro it has smoother AP currently) It also parks worse than a 2017 ford focus. All of these things are from actual experience and are the reality of my ownership. But will my full self driving computer model 3 be able to drive across London on its own this year? I place the marker now in the sand and await the fiction to turn to real fact. Because I am on the edge of bailing out here if I am honest because reality with AP for me is that it has not improved much in almost a calendar year making the same mistakes.

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Why do these threads always devolve into 90% of the posts saying "FSD is a waste of money" and the "horse and buggy I drove last week performed better"?

There are plenty of other threads where you can go complain about FSD. The subject of this one is if FSD will be feature complete in 4 months. Based on Elon's definition, feature complete basically means a car that can perform the following at least some of the time:

1) Navigate out of a parking spot
2) Turn on city roads
3) Lane keep on city roads and highways
4) Navigate highway entrance/exit ramps
4) Stop at stop signs and lights
5) Park itself

All of these items except #2 are already feature complete. It's not perfect and doesn't work 100% of the time, but it does work most of the time. And yes, it still requires driver monitoring.

So if all the FSD team needs to do is accurately make turns at intersections >0% of the time, then I could see that happening by the end of the year.

I have never questioned the ability of the car to achieve this list. It's a waste of money to me because the government isn't going to sign off on this stuff. Heck even in Germany right now they're cracking down on Tesla for how we operate our windshield wipers.
Don't underestimate the government. They won't allow it, but if somehow they do, one accident will put us back at ground zero.
 
I have never questioned the ability of the car to achieve this list. It's a waste of money to me because the government isn't going to sign off on this stuff. Heck even in Germany right now they're cracking down on Tesla for how we operate our windshield wipers.
Don't underestimate the government. They won't allow it, but if somehow they do, one accident will put us back at ground zero.


Which "government"? Which "stuff"?

In the US if it's L2 it's already allowed everywhere they just haven't rolled out the last feature yet (handling turns)

If it's higher it's already allowed in a bunch of US states though certainly not all of em- just nobody actually sells a car that does it yet.

The EU is far more restrictive though