Fair enough. How about this. There are more (in terms of total number) of Prius out there with >200k miles on the original motor+battery then Teslas. We won’t know with Tesla until the model 3 hits 10-12 years old.Really? my dad's Prius had to have its battery replaced at 180k. Then he bought another one. After a while I thought the battery gives out,but you can still drive it. Kind of like a PHEV, but never plugging it in. So yeah it's a car, but it's not the original prius.
Yeah I'm not seeing tons of them. What I'm seeing is they die at about 150 to 200,000 mi. You never know on the internet.
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So how do we reconcile it has been since Nov of 2019 since the announcement? Yet Tesla isn't close to the goal post at all. Cannot be ignored.
Many industries you can't make such outlandish proclamations and not get close to delivering. I think the lack of transparency through this time period is concerning.
All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational. -Charlie Munger
“Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked.” Again that guy Charlie Munger
Some people are upset. Just know what your dealing with, and that way you will never be let down. Goes for Tesla and life.
I got a crappy 2017 early 3. Kind of expected it. Got upset. Then accepted it. Will still buy an early Cybertruck, but I will be more realisitic about my expectations this time. Maybe be a little kinder to the SC, and just enjoy my Cybertruck and enjoy the others getting 20% markdowns in a year.
I suspect that Tesla underestimated the complexity of battery cell and pack manufacturing more than anything. Tesla thought they could improve on what Panasonic and others have done, and save some monies in the process, by doing it in house. In hindsight, it's taken them a lot longer than they expected. There was a really good video by The Limiting Factor last year that basically showed that what Tesla is trying to do with the 4680 packs - isn't going to come to full fruition until 2026. Musk has mentioned several times over the past year or so that battery manufacturing is not unlike BEV manufacturing. Building a BEV isn't hard. Mass producing BEVs at scale and at a profit, is actually very hard. Building a better battery cell and pack with higher density isn't all that hard in the labs. Figuring out a way to scale manufacturing of a better cell with better chemistry, into an entire battery pack, is very hard. Musk tends to underestimate the time required to do things like this as a general rule. He's an eternal optimist in this regard.
That’s… one way to put it. Another way is he’s just a liar.
Reconcile? Reconcile what? Concerning? What can you possibly do?
Cannot be ignored? What are you planning to do about it?
One option is to keep your blood pressure down concerning things you can't do anything about.
I believe the battery pack could have been physically larger - thereby producing 500 miles.
As it has been stated 10,000 times. Pack size - price size. 4 years ago, there was a prediction on the price of batteries coming down dramatically. Tesla's board stated that. It hasn't happened as dramatically as described.
The value of the dollar has dropped thereby raising the price of things.
Let me ask people out there - if the value of the dollar drops by 15%...what would the price of the CT be? <----This has NOTHING to do with Tesla. Can Tesla just ignore that? Absolutely NOT.
Reconcile that nothing was said along the way about us not even being close. Hey folks would you like your $100 back? Nope. Battery day could have said something. Nope. Maybe if you read the tea leaves.
What am I going to do about it? Buy my Cybertruck. Take my medicine
.Remember people vote with their dollars and feet.
Many people forget how fickle the consumer is and the consequences of those who push their luck too long. They get the whammy. Be careful Tesla.
Reconcile that nothing was said along the way about us not even being close. Hey folks would you like your $100 back? Nope. Battery day could have said something. Nope. Maybe if you read the tea leaves.
What am I going to do about it? Buy my Cybertruck. Take my medicine
Remember people vote with their dollars and feet.
Many people forget how fickle the consumer is and the consequences of those who push their luck too long. They get the whammy. Be careful Tesla.
Battery day said a TON. They spoke about the value of the dollar affecting cost - thereby affecting range and everything that people have ignored since. Question: Is the Model 3 the same price now than it was when it first came out? Crap no. Why is it so much cheaper now?
Indeed, people vote with their dollars and feet and right now they will sell EVERY Cybertruck they make for the next 2 years at current prices. I can guarantee that.
This is almost the IDENTICAL conversation in the Model Y section before the Model Y came out.
Peoples dollars are voting and voting loudly.
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And Ford will sell all the ICE-150s and lightnings.
I am a great Tesla fan, but the cybertrytobetruck has some shortcomings. Completely happy if it becomes the Pontiac Aztec as I live remotely and want this style.
@israndy here is your dream or it seemed in a post I saw recently. Paxton, NE. I did that all over the US and Canda for about 15 years. Airstream is now in retirement. Check my other threads.
That Suburban gets 532 miles on a tank and can tow that trailer 300 miles with a 7 inch lift and winches all gussied up. I think many hoped for something like that. What we got was much less at any price.
The big word I think everyone wants to know is volume and conversion rate.
Sometimes I look at things if I had a dollar in my pocket today. What would I with it? Other than buying something material. Tesla is really making it hard these days.
Edit add:
It's a toy vehicle. Can't yet with cells replace the Suburban for what it does. I don't use it for that anymore.
The idea of putting cells up higher in bed try is out as mentioned by others.
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Well, Ford might sell every lightning NOW. lol
Ford tells suppliers it’s halving F-150 Lightning production
Perhaps setting expectations of a $40,000 electric truck was a mistake.
arstechnica.com
Back to batteries
Only Tesla has the guts, after they stole, we sold battery tech/patents to China, NCA/NCM and LFP, to do it in the USA
Different form factor
Custom chem
Anode and cathode
And next, refining
Don’t attack, don’t be a hater
GM, Ford, Rivian, Lucid don’t have the guts
Battery tech is hard
So far only Panasonic, CATL, SAIC, LG and BYD (some minor one) are manuf
Fords needs CATL
GM uses LG
EV batteries owned and build by USA in the USA
Impressive
Only Tesla has the guts, after they stole, we sold battery tech/patents to China, NCA/NCM and LFP, to do it in the USA
Different form factor
Custom chem
Anode and cathode
And next, refining
Don’t attack, don’t be a hater
GM, Ford, Rivian, Lucid don’t have the guts
Battery tech is hard
So far only Panasonic, CATL, SAIC, LG and BYD (some minor one) are manuf
Fords needs CATL
GM uses LG
EV batteries owned and build by USA in the USA
Impressive
You are exactly right.
Although the wining and complaining is dying down faster than I thought it would. There are only 2 threads - each of which have lower number than I thought they would by now. I call that a victory.
It's all good.
Ford - like Tesla - will balance supply/demand.Well, Ford might sell every lightning NOW. lol
Ford tells suppliers it’s halving F-150 Lightning production
Perhaps setting expectations of a $40,000 electric truck was a mistake.
this: "they will sell every vehicle they make" is the most simplistic take... especially as Ford still projects 60-70k Lightnings produced in 2024 whereas I'd be surprised if Tesla does more than 40k....
Are you kidding? Tesla doesn't even have a fully functional production line yet.
Tesla is ramping up. (increasing production of a brand-new product) <- demand increasing
Ford is ramping down (decreasing production of a product that is not NEW) <- demand decreasing.
My original point is - certainly Ford is going to sell every Lightning - they are making HALF of what they used to.
Garlan. Welcome back to the forums. New user name. Did they un-ban you? Glad to see the 3 is holding up well.
I don't know what they did. I'm glad I'm back also. Thanks.
Do you have a name of a system I can try?
You do know that in 2025 Ford is starting production and deliveries of the next gen F150 Lightning (project T3) as a pure EV platform ? And unlike Tesla the unveil and deliveries are spaced out typically in under 6 months.... in addition to that the Ford Ranger EV is also starting in 2025...
Mrbrock
Active Member
How to reconcile is to first acknowledge that Elon talks in hyperbole and to discount 30% every number they throw out in these presentations. He is the hype machine to draw investors and ratchet up the stock price.
weve gone over this but Tesla said they have installed capacity for 125k a year. That sounds like it’s ready to go, now you are waking it back saying it isn’t fully functional? Either it’s functional and they are producing cars or it’s not.