5K/week pushed back to Q2

[Barklikeadog]

5k/week pushed by a quarter? Much ado about nothing. Sure folks have to wait longer and some will jump ship, but in the end if they ramp up by a few weeks later, it will mean nothing in the long run.

I think it is a big deal.
If Apple forecasted building and selling 50m iPhones in 2018... But only produced 25 million. It would be a catastrophe.
Musk predicted 300 to 400k model 3s in 2018... If the weekly avg in 2018 is 4000... That is 200k cars for the year. So multiply that 150,000 gap by $45,000 per unit sold...

People here like to say that analysts assume this and therefore it is baked into the stock price. But this cake is gonna get badly burnt

 

[Moderatefan]

5k/week pushed by a quarter? Much ado about nothing. Sure folks have to wait longer and some will jump ship, but in the end if they ramp up by a few weeks later, it will mean nothing in the long run.

In the long run the competition will catch up. So, if they delay for too long, many will be jumping the ship to get a car quicker. Cmon, we're already waiting almost 2 years. I don't think I can wait 5.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

I think it is a big deal.
If Apple forecasted building and selling 50m iPhones in 2018... But only produced 25 million. It would be a catastrophe.
Musk predicted 300 to 400k model 3s in 2018... If the weekly avg in 2018 is 4000... That is 200k cars for the year. So multiply that 150,000 gap by $45,000 per unit sold...

People here like to say that analysts assume this and therefore it is baked into the stock price. But this cake is gonna get badly burnt

That surprisingly enough matches up pretty well with the launch of the original iPhone. Apple sold about 6 million over the course of a year, for about $2 billion in profit.

iPhone Weekend One: 700,000 Sold, $200million+ Profit For Apple

If Tesla sells 200k Model 3s in 2018 with an average 20% margin, that would also be about $2 billion in profits.

If you're comparing Apple now to Tesla now, that's.... interesting, because Apple's been around for almost three decades longer than Tesla.

 

[Flekoun]

Ok, here goes plans for EU deliveries in Late 2018 out of window If no more delays ( joke?) people who reserved online on 31th will see their TM3 in January 2019....

 

[Dragon]

Yeah, it's really bad for us european people. Most of us will have waited 3 years for the car since online reservation. In 2019 there should be plenty of electric cars from the competition avalaible.

 

[Garlan Garner]

”Tesla Motors Club” is pro-Tesla? I’m shocked

You haven't been here long enough to see just how infuriating it is when the truth is not positive.

 

[dsvick]

I don't believe that the number of SC's will have to keep up with production as Tesla is now charging Model 3 owners to use them @ a rate higher than their home rates.

Pretty sure the SuperCharger rates they will charge M3 owners will be the same exact rates they would pay at home, so it does not exactly drive them away. Also, it is likely there will still be the 400 kWh free per year.

My rate, in Ohio, is actually less than my normal electric cost (After I figure in delivery, taxes, fees, and other stupid stuff). But Garlan is essentially right, since model 3 owners have to pay for all (there is no free 400kWh) SC use, there should be less incentive for people to use them when their home is more convenient.

 

[9erDog]

Yeah, don't spend that 400kW all in one place. At best, and it won't be, that's one way from Los Angeles to Portland, if you pretend that Mount Shasta isn't there. Plus it appears that unlike what was put forth to us as fact a year ago now only applies to 2nd owners of cars ordered after 1/15/2017 (a per kW charge). The 400kW bone does not apply to the Model 3 afaik.

What Model 3 owners are going to find out to their chagrin is that while it's absolutely possible to get all the range as advertised when traveling from one SC to another along a nice flat highway with mild weather at moderate speed, there's as much as a 50% hit during a week's worth of short urban trips. Meaning that their $12 (60kW * $0.20/kW in CA else e.g., $0.16/peak minute in, e.g., AZ)) doesn't get them full range. It gets them half range unless they're road tripping. Not a huge deal but it does negate their fuel savings relative to an efficient alternative vehicle.

So they'll just have to settle for a great driving experience and a safe car that looks, dare I say, really good from most angles.

What will be interesting to see in practice is the cost structure associated with the 12,500 L2 & L3 chargers from the utilities in CA combined with the tens of thousands of L2 & L3 chargers coming to CA alone from the Dieselgate money. Make them competitive with SC pricing and get municipalities off the schneid so that chargers more effectively penetrate residential MDU/MFD neighborhoods, and Good Things will happen.

As I've typed periodically - Solve California and you solve the continent.

I’m confused by this - so how much range should I expect from 60kW on the Model 3 LR? Shouldn’t it be around 240 miles at 250Wh/mile or perhaps 200 miles at 300 Wh/mile? That”s more than 50% of 310 miles. Am I looking at this wrong? I have no experience with Teslas but my Leaf does fine in urban environments and not so great on the freeway.

 

[McHoffa]

fwiw, one thing about this delay re hitting 5K/week many will like- it looks pretty clear Tesla will not hit the 200K threshold which triggers the clock on phasing out the U.S. tax credit until Q2. Before this announcement it was looking too close to call as to whether it would be Q1 or Q2.

It's pretty much a guarantee they hit it in Q2 now. They'll be at about 180k by end of Q1. They'll probably sell 15k Model S+X in Q2. So they would only need to sell 5,000 Model 3s in Q2 to hit 200k, or 2 weeks worth assuming they make it to 2500 per week by then.

They only way they don't hit 200k in Q2 now is if something actually slows Model 3 production to less than 1000 per week for the next six months.

 

[Stoneymonster]

Yeah, don't spend that 400kW all in one place. At best, and it won't be, that's one way from Los Angeles to Portland, if you pretend that Mount Shasta isn't there. Plus it appears that unlike what was put forth to us as fact a year ago now only applies to 2nd owners of cars ordered after 1/15/2017 (a per kW charge). The 400kW bone does not apply to the Model 3 afaik.

What Model 3 owners are going to find out to their chagrin is that while it's absolutely possible to get all the range as advertised when traveling from one SC to another along a nice flat highway with mild weather at moderate speed, there's as much as a 50% hit during a week's worth of short urban trips. Meaning that their $12 (60kW * $0.20/kW in CA else e.g., $0.16/peak minute in, e.g., AZ)) doesn't get them full range. It gets them half range unless they're road tripping. Not a huge deal but it does negate their fuel savings relative to an efficient alternative vehicle.

So they'll just have to settle for a great driving experience and a safe car that looks, dare I say, really good from most angles.

What will be interesting to see in practice is the cost structure associated with the 12,500 L2 & L3 chargers from the utilities in CA combined with the tens of thousands of L2 & L3 chargers coming to CA alone from the Dieselgate money. Make them competitive with SC pricing and get municipalities off the schneid so that chargers more effectively penetrate residential MDU/MFD neighborhoods, and Good Things will happen.

As I've typed periodically - Solve California and you solve the continent.

Where are you getting the 50% hit number? That’s not been my experience after 3 Teslas. 20% mayyybe and probably much less. (90% of my driving is short urban trips).

 

[Dexterryu]

Yeah, don't spend that 400kW all in one place. At best, and it won't be, that's one way from Los Angeles to Portland, if you pretend that Mount Shasta isn't there. Plus it appears that unlike what was put forth to us as fact a year ago now only applies to 2nd owners of cars ordered after 1/15/2017 (a per kW charge). The 400kW bone does not apply to the Model 3 afaik.

What Model 3 owners are going to find out to their chagrin is that while it's absolutely possible to get all the range as advertised when traveling from one SC to another along a nice flat highway with mild weather at moderate speed, there's as much as a 50% hit during a week's worth of short urban trips. Meaning that their $12 (60kW * $0.20/kW in CA else e.g., $0.16/peak minute in, e.g., AZ)) doesn't get them full range. It gets them half range unless they're road tripping. Not a huge deal but it does negate their fuel savings relative to an efficient alternative vehicle.

So they'll just have to settle for a great driving experience and a safe car that looks, dare I say, really good from most angles.

What will be interesting to see in practice is the cost structure associated with the 12,500 L2 & L3 chargers from the utilities in CA combined with the tens of thousands of L2 & L3 chargers coming to CA alone from the Dieselgate money. Make them competitive with SC pricing and get municipalities off the schneid so that chargers more effectively penetrate residential MDU/MFD neighborhoods, and Good Things will happen.

As I've typed periodically - Solve California and you solve the continent.

As someone that lives in an area where Lake Effect snow is a thing, the biggest appeal for me about charging is that I don't have to get out of my car in below zero temperatures to pump gas. The cost savings are nice, but not having to spend time/freeze my ass off pumping gas is the biggest benefit to going EV.

That surprisingly enough matches up pretty well with the launch of the original iPhone. Apple sold about 6 million over the course of a year, for about $2 billion in profit.

iPhone Weekend One: 700,000 Sold, $200million+ Profit For Apple

If Tesla sells 200k Model 3s in 2018 with an average 20% margin, that would also be about $2 billion in profits.

If you're comparing Apple now to Tesla now, that's.... interesting, because Apple's been around for almost three decades longer than Tesla.

Very true... this is extremely common in the electronics industry. Every new iPhone has supply & demand issue. Same thing with game consoles and top end PC components. It comes with the territory of buying something new and cutting edge. I reserved my M3 in July of last year and I'm sticking with it. A few more months with my old/current car are no big deal. Especially so as bugs are ironed out and software features added.

 

[brkaus]

Oh, I get it, you’re saying many people have been using SC for day to day use. I have only used them for long distance travel so I hadn’t considered that.

Yes. There is a certain % of the Tesla population that has upped their car purchasing budget assuming they save on electricity costs.

I even played this game for the first month of ownership.

Sales cause irrational behavior. Just look at the lines at Costco gas to save $0.10 per gallon. Free brings out even more of this behavior.

 

[shrspeedblade]

My rate, in Ohio, is actually less than my normal electric cost (After I figure in delivery, taxes, fees, and other stupid stuff). But Garlan is essentially right, since model 3 owners have to pay for all (there is no free 400kWh) SC use, there should be less incentive for people to use them when their home is more convenient.

As much as superchargers are over-used in California by people just wanting "free fuel" I for one am glad they will be pay-per-use moving forward. Less wait/no wait at all when you need one is easily worth the 5 bucks!

My reaction to the slower ramp? "BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!"

....and I'm still not cancelling my reservation.

 

[arcus]

Sales cause irrational behavior. Just look at the lines at Costco gas to save $0.10 per gallon. Free brings out even more of this behavior.

Sad but true.

 

[Barklikeadog]

That surprisingly enough matches up pretty well with the launch of the original iPhone. Apple sold about 6 million over the course of a year, for about $2 billion in profit.

iPhone Weekend One: 700,000 Sold, $200million+ Profit For Apple

If Tesla sells 200k Model 3s in 2018 with an average 20% margin, that would also be about $2 billion in profits.

If you're comparing Apple now to Tesla now, that's.... interesting, because Apple's been around for almost three decades longer than Tesla.

If a company named Make Believe informed the shareholders that they would sell 400,000 widgets next year, and they only sold 200,000, that would be a catastrophe.

better?

 

[EV-lutioin]

Yes. There is a certain % of the Tesla population that has upped their car purchasing budget assuming they save on electricity costs.

I even played this game for the first month of ownership.

Sales cause irrational behavior. Just look at the lines at Costco gas to save $0.10 per gallon. Free brings out even more of this behavior.

Yep, definitely irrational behavior.

 

[Garlan Garner]

If a company named Make Believe informed the shareholders that they would sell 400,000 widgets next year, and they only sold 200,000, that would be a catastrophe.

better?

That would indeed not be good for the shareholders ( the little guys ).

 

[Carl]

If a company named Make Believe informed the shareholders that they would sell 400,000 widgets next year, and they only sold 200,000, that would be a catastrophe.

better?

Better at getting your point across, for sure. But unlike Make Believe, Tesla did not make 400,000 M3's and only manage to sell half of them. More to the contrary, Tesla most probably has 400,000 willing and able buyers for the M3, and simply cannot not make M3's fast enough. That, I think, is a very different situation, and one which as a manufacturer I would much prefer to the situation of your Make Believe company

 

[ggies07]

Cmon, we're already waiting almost 2 years. I don't think I can wait 5.

Here's some perspective: I've been waiting since 2012 when I found out about the company and became a shareholder, but didn't have enough money to buy one - so 6 years for me. I should be getting my 3 in 3 to 4 months when I should have had it this month. But hey, what's a few more months when you've been waiting years.....

 

[apacheguy]

It’s $0.20 a kWh in California. That’s way more than I pay on my time of use plan. The 400 kWh is not included for the 3.

SDGE charges over $0.20 per kWh even for off peak TOU plans.

EV Rates | San Diego Gas & Electric