75 to be replace by 80?

[vigge50]

I just read on the Swedish Tesla forum that someone who had been in one of the stores had been told that the 75 kWh battery is on it's way out and that it will be replaced by 80 kWh battery. He wasn't told anything about the timeline so it could be tomorrow as they take away 90 kWh battery or it will be later this year when 2170 batteries starts to come to Model S and Model X.

This also maid me think about the 2170 cells, as I remember it was going to start deliver to Model S and X 6-9 month after the production had started but then I started to search after the article I found that I remember wrong, this Electrek write last July.

At the Gigafactory event yesterday, Elon Musk said that the first vehicle battery packs will come out of the factory in about 6 months and will be used as development battery pack for the Model 3.

In 8 to 9 months, battery packs for the Model S and X will also rollout for validation and for production in the following months.

Tesla’s plan for Gigafactory vehicle battery pack rollout and why it matters

This should mean that Tesla have already started to test 2170 cells in Model S and Model X if they manage to keep there timeline and maybe soon is ready to start selling them with 2170 cells.

Of course this is speculation and I won't take it for granted until I see it in the design studio, the people at Tesla stores have been misinform before.

 

[jelloslug]

Who knows with Tesla. I would assume that it would not be with the 2170 cells though since they are physically a different size. What they could do is package the same number of modules that the current 75 battery has with the newer design of the 100 and squeeze in a few more cells.

 

[kev1n]

the battery technology is only going to get better and better until they hit a soft wall.

 

[whitex]

75 and 90 used old design modules (14 and 16 respectively). 100 uses a newer design (better cooling, more robust bonding, etc) so it would make sense that once out of the old modules, 14 new module batteries would make up an 80. It would also add a distinction between Model S and a Model 3 which will be 75 at first.

 

[Saghost]

75 and 90 used old design modules (14 and 16 respectively). 100 uses a newer design (better cooling, more robust bonding, etc) so it would make sense that once out of the old modules, 14 new module batteries would make up an 80. It would also add a distinction between Model S and a Model 3 which will be 75 at first.

That's exactly what I am expecting in a few months, unless the 2170 switch flips things around. The only problem with that logic as applied to this rumor is that 14/16th of a 100 pack is an 87.5 pack. I've been expecting it to be branded as a new 85 or possibly a new 90.

It's certainly much to big to be an "80" unless they also software limit it....

 

[xyeahtony]

i think eventually a couple years down the road all S(s) will have 100Kwh batteries that Tesla will software limit to set the price points.

 

[HankLloydRight]

It'll be 85kWh.

 

[vigge50]

i think eventually a couple years down the road all S(s) will have 100Kwh batteries that Tesla will software limit to set the price points.

They have done that mistake before and I have hard to believe that they will do it again, they send out a lot of batteries that they never get paid for, I don't believe that the lower cost they have change it to now represent the extra cost, they just think it's better then nothing and didn't want all the 60 customers to be angry then they lower the price of 75.

 

[whitex]

i think eventually a couple years down the road all S(s) will have 100Kwh batteries that Tesla will software limit to set the price points.

That experiment did not work with 60/75, why would it work with a different configuration? The problem is that it is hard to monetize the additional capacity very well because it is the top 10% which most people never use (it takes forever to charge to 100% as charging slows down to a crawl even at supercharger, it disables regen, Tesla says it's not healthy for the battery anyways, and most people don't need the extra range in daily driving, so why would one pay significant money for it?). 60-75 was priced at $9K, didn't sell, then $7K, still didn't sell. It took lowering the price to $2K to get a significant number of people to upgrade. I upgraded mostly because I figured the software limiting was not going to get a lot of attention from Tesla QA testing and possibly limits the software from doing something useful like cell balancing - $2K was right on the edge or worth it. If I was buying a 100D, I would gladly take $10K+ to lock it down to 90% max charge - I've been driving Models S's since 2013, local and long distance driving including a coast-to-coast trip, and gotta tell you, the number of times I charged to 100% is probably ~5, and probably never really needed it, it was "just in case" overnight charging before leaving on a long trip (tried a few times at a SC but never had the patience to wait that long).

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

i think eventually a couple years down the road all S(s) will have 100Kwh batteries that Tesla will software limit to set the price points.

They did the software-limited 60s because they were desperate to keep demand up before the Model 3 ramp and because making it a software-only change was a cheap temporary measure.

It obviously didn't work out well for them, else they'd have continued longer.

The batteries are modular so it's no big deal for Tesla to make a different battery as long as there's the volume and margin to support the additional testing.

After the 3's ramped, they won't want to upsell and then give away margin like that. They'll rather you buy a loaded 3.

 

[EfficientWatts]

That's exactly what I am expecting in a few months, unless the 2170 switch flips things around. The only problem with that logic as applied to this rumor is that 14/16th of a 100 pack is an 87.5 pack. I've been expecting it to be branded as a new 85 or possibly a new 90.

It's certainly much to big to be an "80" unless they also software limit it....

I don't know much about battery tech (I assume there's a reason for even modules numbers), but could they do 13/16? That's 81.25kWh.

 

[whitex]

I don't know much about battery tech (I assume there's a reason for even modules numbers), but could they do 13/16? That's 81.25kWh.

Even number of modules is likely mechanical (symmetrical battery design, cooling, thermal dispersion, weight distribution, etc), rather than electrical. There is however a minimum voltage/current required to drive current design dual motors, which with current module design appears to be 14. We know this because the original 60 battery was deemed not able to drive dual motors (Tesla announced and took 60D orders for about 2 weeks, then cancelled the product, then while later came out with 70D instead, implying that the original modules used in the 60 lacked the power to drive dual motors).

 

[Saghost]

I don't know much about battery tech (I assume there's a reason for even modules numbers), but could they do 13/16? That's 81.25kWh.

The modules the the S/X battery are all in series, so 13 would be a 325 V nominal, lower than they've ever done before. Might work with all the hardware, might not.

Currently, small battery cars have seven modules running along each side of the pack, while large battery cars add two stacked at the front. How would thirteen be arranged? Seven on one side, six on the other? Six on each side, skip an empty space, and put one at the front center?

I'm sure Tesla could come up with a way, but it seems unnatural.

 

[pwwuk]

75 & 100 are only options in the UK DS.

I'm holding out for 2170.

 

[R.S]

75 & 100 are only options in the UK DS.

I'm holding out for 2170.

I don't know if my Model S will make it till 2170...

 

[jelloslug]

I don't know if my Model S will make it till 2170...

It might need a new battery by then...

 

[jbcarioca]

It might need a new battery by then...

I'd need much more than a new battery to make it to 2170. I'd need to change my name to methuselah.

 

[freeewilly]

If 2170 battery pack (not just cells) turn out to be more cost efficient to make than 18650. It will speed up the process for Model S to switch to 2170 pack.

 

[R.S]

Essentially all the waiting doesn't make sense. If you wait just for the new cells, you might miss out the new motors, if you wait just for them you might miss out the new interior, if you wait for the new interior, there might be new packs coming. In the end you will be really waiting for 2170.

The Model S, for better or worse, improves rather continuously, at least compared to cars from other brands. So you will always miss out something and you could always wait a little longer to get something better. It is easier with other cars, because they only change every 3 years, or less.

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

if the "new" 85D has the acceleration of the old one, I'm in.

I want a new one in the worst way, but the 70 felt small (coming from a 85) and the 90/100 felt like a lot of money.

I could totally live with a new 70D, but I'm not replacing my car with one that does 0-60 the same. I want faster dammit!