A post nobody asked for: How I'd handle the FSD problem (features, HW upgrades) for early adopters

[Az_Rael]

@diplomat33 @Mardak

Model 3 Group 1 retrofits have started:

Model 3 HW3 upgrade complete. A few additional details inside. : teslamotors

Hmm, I have a mobile service booked for my 3 next week, wonder if they will do it via mobile or if the 3 will have to be at a service center. I “should” be in group 1 like that fellow as I have a 3 bought in December 2017, delivered in Jan and am in CA (albeit farther from Fremont).

 

[am_dmd]

One comment on volumes: I of course agree HW3 retrofit volumes are abysmal and the ramp-up unconvincing. That said, there is no reason to believe this is anything other than the way Tesla intends to ramp this up — slowly and starting from the newest cars. There is nothing in the SC message or other Tesla messaging of recent times to suggest anything else.

Don't you see it's not mass retrofits . Just upgrade few social media celebs and keep the mass at bay. Leave the carrot dangling for the rest of us and just spread the rumor that mass retrofits is coming soon even though they had ~3 yrs for AP2.

 

[Mardak]

I “should” be in group 1 like that fellow as I have a 3 bought in December 2017, delivered in Jan and am in CA (albeit farther from Fremont).

If we're taking the "Model 3 Group 1" as an example of Model 3 retrofits starting, it does match up with prioritizing earlier VINs, here 004xxx, as opposed to starting from the newest cars built this year.

While the "Model S and Model X Group 1" was first reported back in September with an April 2018 build date. 2017 Q4 was around hardware 2.5 was introduced and had 28k S/X deliveries, and 2018 Q1 had 22k S/X, so maybe "Group 1" includes 50k-75k VINs. Although with those sizes, S/X Group 2 could be the remainder of 2018 S/X and early 2019 S/X VINs; whereas Model 3 delivered that many in various quarters, so there could be many more Groups.

And for those even earlier with MCU1/HW2.0, looks like Tesla is still figuring out what to do. Although some people seem to have suggested those vehicles will get MCU upgraded as part of the FSD retrofit.

Have there been any reports of Mobile Service completing a FSD computer upgrade?

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I don't understand why we're even talking about retrofits for cars already schedule for unrelated service. That's not what I'd call an official rollout. Sure it's good for informational purposes on what configurations can currently be upgraded, but it's not what I'd call a rollout.

A rollout is when they let people know that the upgrade is available, and to schedule a service appointment.

Figuring out what Tesla is going to do about AP2 is even further complicated by the fact that Tesla still hasn't upgraded an MCU/HW2.5 computer. Rumor has it that they're going to have to upgrade these people to MCU2 to get it to work.

That's pretty sweet news for HW2.5/MCU1 owners.

 

[dgatwood]

Figuring out what Tesla is going to do about AP2 is even further complicated by the fact that Tesla still hasn't upgraded an MCU/HW2.5 computer. Rumor has it that they're going to have to upgrade these people to MCU2 to get it to work.

That's pretty sweet news for HW2.5/MCU1 owners.

I seriously doubt they'll upgrade MCU1 to MCU2, unless they mass upgrade MCU1 to MCU2 to avoid having to fix the complete disaster of slowness that the MCU1 firmwares have become. I can't see any reason they would have to upgrade the MCU. They just need to roll the firmware flasher code for HW3 into the MCU1 firmware bundle... unless it is too big and won't fit on the eMMC (in which case see also the complete disaster of slowness comment, since that's the root cause).

 

[electronblue]

If we're taking the "Model 3 Group 1" as an example of Model 3 retrofits starting, it does match up with prioritizing earlier VINs, here 004xxx, as opposed to starting from the newest cars built this year.

While the "Model S and Model X Group 1" was first reported back in September with an April 2018 build date. 2017 Q4 was around hardware 2.5 was introduced and had 28k S/X deliveries, and 2018 Q1 had 22k S/X, so maybe "Group 1" includes 50k-75k VINs. Although with those sizes, S/X Group 2 could be the remainder of 2018 S/X and early 2019 S/X VINs; whereas Model 3 delivered that many in various quarters, so there could be many more Groups.

And for those even earlier with MCU1/HW2.0, looks like Tesla is still figuring out what to do. Although some people seem to have suggested those vehicles will get MCU upgraded as part of the FSD retrofit.

Have there been any reports of Mobile Service completing a FSD computer upgrade?

I agree nothing matches with prioritizing earlier VINs, so we should just forget about the misconception as I’ve said many times now.

However, to be accurate, there are two major factual errors that make your analysis inaccurate. First of all AP2.5 was introduced in the summer of 2017, not Q4/2017.

Second, you forgot MCU2 which was introduced in (around) March 2018. All cars so far retrofitted for Model S/X are the latest: AP2.5 and MCU2. So from March 2018 onwards.

 

[electronblue]

I don't understand why we're even talking about retrofits for cars already schedule for unrelated service. That's not what I'd call an official rollout. Sure it's good for informational purposes on what configurations can currently be upgraded, but it's not what I'd call a rollout.

A rollout is when they let people know that the upgrade is available, and to schedule a service appointment.

Figuring out what Tesla is going to do about AP2 is even further complicated by the fact that Tesla still hasn't upgraded an MCU/HW2.5 computer. Rumor has it that they're going to have to upgrade these people to MCU2 to get it to work.

That's pretty sweet news for HW2.5/MCU1 owners.

There is also at least one word from SC saying the engineers are trying to figure out a way to do it without retrofitting MCU2.

I actually have a new(ish) concern about this.

Tesla is framing the cones as a rendering issue and not an FSD issue.

Is Tesla preparing to limit AP2/2.5 MCU1 customer’s Autopilot displays due performance or similar issues, by saying they are not FSD features?

Hopefully not.

 

[Mardak]

All cars so far retrofitted for Model S/X are the latest: AP2.5 and MCU2. So from March 2018 onwards.

Ah right, so that makes "Model S and Model X Group 1" much smaller as the initial retrofit report back from September would be a low VIN MCU2+AP2.5. Both reports seem to be within the earliest 10k Model 3 and S/X that have MCU2+AP2.5.

Tesla has done mixed prioritized rollout before with the Model 3 launch. Earlier reservation holders on the west coast could order sooner if they wanted LR, and while production was still ramping up, the reservation line position had more effect on when one received a Model 3. As production increased and opening up of AWD/Performance then MR then SR, the reservation still mattered but not as much.

So Tesla does try to give preference to those who have waited longer while practically starting deploy of what's available. With the Model 3 launch, early reservation holders were temporarily skipped if they didn't want the only-available LR, and here FSD computers are starting with early owners of the currently-available MCU2+AP2.5 retrofit process.

Yes, arguably Tesla should have figured out how to do MCU1/AP2.0 -> FSD computer upgrades first, and there are others who think Tesla should have started Model 3 production with SR too, but Tesla gets to choose how they prioritize and spend their money.

 

[dgatwood]

Tesla is framing the cones as a rendering issue and not an FSD issue.

That's probably correct. MCU1 uses a separate computer for painting the dashboard display, and there's probably a lot of divergence between the code running on that and the equivalent code that runs on MCU2, because the CPU/GPU capabilities of the former are probably much lower. So changes to the dashboard display on MCU1 will probably require a lot more work to optimize them for that hardware.

 

[electronblue]

That's probably correct. MCU1 uses a separate computer for painting the dashboard display, and there's probably a lot of divergence between the code running on that and the equivalent code that runs on MCU2, because the CPU/GPU capabilities of the former are probably much lower. So changes to the dashboard display on MCU1 will probably require a lot more work to optimize them for that hardware.

Yep. That did cross my mind. It is not quite that simple, though, because AP2.5 MCU2 cars are not getting cone display yet either.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

There is also at least one word from SC saying the engineers are trying to figure out a way to do it without retrofitting MCU2.

I actually have a new(ish) concern about this.

Tesla is framing the cones as a rendering issue and not an FSD issue.

Is Tesla preparing to limit AP2/2.5 MCU1 customer’s Autopilot displays due performance or similar issues, by saying they are not FSD features?

Hopefully not.

Yeah, that's a good clarification. The engineers are trying to figure out a way to do it without retrofitting the MCU2. But, if they're already running into a problem this early then if I was them I'd be concerned about future SW changes. That by sticking with MCU1 they might be simply stalling the inevitable.

Tesla can't frame the cone detection as a rendering issue because HW2.5+MCU2 cars DON'T have cone detection.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I seriously doubt they'll upgrade MCU1 to MCU2, unless they mass upgrade MCU1 to MCU2 to avoid having to fix the complete disaster of slowness that the MCU1 firmwares have become. I can't see any reason they would have to upgrade the MCU. They just need to roll the firmware flasher code for HW3 into the MCU1 firmware bundle... unless it is too big and won't fit on the eMMC (in which case see also the complete disaster of slowness comment, since that's the root cause).

It would be interesting to see what exactly the problem is with HW3+MCU1.

The MCU handles all the visualizations, and the visualizations with HW3 are substantially improved. Now sure you can say that won't impact FSD, but it significantly changes the perception of it.

All the dashcam, and sentry mode storage is also handled by the MCU. Sure it's not important for FSD, but it is very important to the customer. You can't give them FSD, but then take away features they used to have.

My bet is they're not having FSD related issues with HW3/MCU1, but they're having issues duplicating the exact customer experience with it. Probably some SW compatibility issue that can be fixed.

My biggest concern with MCU1, and HW3 is navigation. The entire navigation stack runs on the MCU, and that has to store all the navigation data. I know there is a lot of talk about how FSD won't use high definition maps, and I do believe that's correct. But, you can't rule out that the navigation data will need to be bigger.

My bet is there won't be a MCU1+HW3 for exactly the reason you stated. That what needs to go on it is just too big, and it's complete disaster anyways. MCU1 bricks itself over time, and the #1 reason MCU1 owners need an extended warranty.

 

[dgatwood]

My biggest concern with MCU1, and HW3 is navigation. The entire navigation stack runs on the MCU, and that has to store all the navigation data. I know there is a lot of talk about how FSD won't use high definition maps, and I do believe that's correct. But, you can't rule out that the navigation data will need to be bigger.

That actually is a plausible concern. The storage available to the maps app on HW1 is already so inadequate that it doesn't seem to be caching map tiles, so the experience is the single worst mapping experience I've ever experienced on any platform.

Waiting up to a minute after you change zoom settings for the map tiles to slowly reload over horribly slow LTE service is obnoxious, and doubly so when it has to wait for the tiles to load before loading traffic data, so if you zoom out to see traffic while it is navigating, it reliably fails to render traffic before it changes the zoom settings back unless you literally hold your finger down on the map to force it to not zoom....

So I absolutely do hope that they end up replacing all the MCU1 hardware with MCU2. But I'm not holding my breath.

 

[timewasted]

Speaking as a relatively early Model S owner on the west coast who literally just had my retrofit appointment cancelled today, you’ll have to forgive me if I don’t put much faith in this. I maintain that there’s a good chance you’ll be getting your upgrade before me.

@diplomat33 I saw in another thread that you have your upgrade scheduled for Friday. I had an opportunity to talk to my service center not too long ago and they confirmed that my car still isn’t eligible for the upgrade. My new prediction is that I will continue to not be eligible until I grease the wheels with a $2500 MCU upgrade, which for anyone keeping track at home would put me over $10k into FSD (still with no features to show for it).

 

[run-the-joules]

@diplomat33 I saw in another thread that you have your upgrade scheduled for Friday. I had an opportunity to talk to my service center not too long ago and they confirmed that my car still isn’t eligible for the upgrade. My new prediction is that I will continue to not be eligible until I grease the wheels with a $2500 MCU upgrade, which for anyone keeping track at home would put me over $10k into FSD (still with no features to show for it).

I've privately expressed to a couple of friends that I think Tesla is offering the MCU upgrade to try and get as many people to pay for that as possible, and then they'll begrudgingly do it for free for everyone who paid for FSD already, infuriating the people who already paid for FSD and then paid for the MCU upgrade.

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33 I saw in another thread that you have your upgrade scheduled for Friday. I had an opportunity to talk to my service center not too long ago and they confirmed that my car still isn’t eligible for the upgrade. My new prediction is that I will continue to not be eligible until I grease the wheels with a $2500 MCU upgrade, which for anyone keeping track at home would put me over $10k into FSD (still with no features to show for it).

Just my take but I suspect that Tesla is starting with the newer cars first. So Model 3's get the upgrade first, Model S with AP2.5 and MCU2 get the upgrade. Model S with AP2 and MCU1 will get the upgrade last. So if you wait long enough, you might get it for free. But yes, it is entirely possible that paying for the MCU upgrade which Tesla promises comes with the FSD upgrade, will get you the upgrade sooner. Money talks after all.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I've privately expressed to a couple of friends that I think Tesla is offering the MCU upgrade to try and get as many people to pay for that as possible, and then they'll begrudgingly do it for free for everyone who paid for FSD already, infuriating the people who already paid for FSD and then paid for the MCU upgrade.

Nah they're going to push an update to fry the eMMC even faster and then insist on having a working MCU to do the upgrade.
And obviously they're going to refuse to work on cars that have had their eMMC replaced.

 

[run-the-joules]

Nah they're going to push an update to fry the eMMC even faster and then insist on having a working MCU to do the upgrade.
And obviously they're going to refuse to work on cars that have had their eMMC replaced.

Oh man… don't give them ideas.

 

[tmoz]

The chip shortage might be affecting this too.
When I bought in 2015, the salesman talked about an autonomous drive from NY to LA. Sure gave the impression that it would do more than just stay in the lane and not crash into the car ahead of it.
I'm not about to jump into the pool again for a refresh just for another partially finished product. I may buy a cybertruck or a Model Y along the way, but not because I think it will be able to drive from NY to LA.

But if I had bought 1 or 2 yrs ago, my expectations would certainly be higher, as many in this thread's are.