ALL CyberTruck discussion

[gilscales]

ED If people purchased trucks rationally the Honda Ridgeline would be a top seller instead of a bottom dweller.

Well let's see, 14,000 lb. gross dump trailer for work and a Ridgeline, nope, 40 4' x 8' sheets of 1/2' drywall or plywood in a Ridgeline, not really to easy, 3,000 lbs. of porcelain tile in a Ridgeline, nope, an Entire kitchen full of cabinets in a Ridgeline, nope, I guess you better call me irrational then.

 

[gilscales]

People who are using a pickup for actual work will mainly look at the how well it suits their tasks and TCO. I know one mason (not urban, central California) who is interested in the Tesla pickup for his work truck.

I am a general contractor and if this truck will take the place of my rapidly aging 2008 f-250 then I want one for sure, just need to tow 20,000 plus or minus which is a little outside the f-150 comfort zone, hell if it was rated at 15,000 and at least 3,000 payload it would be close enough to a heavy duty truck for me to make the switch, I am excited about the reveal!

 

[RobStark]

Well let's see, 14,000 lb. gross dump trailer for work and a Ridgeline, nope, 40 4' x 8' sheets of 1/2' drywall or plywood in a Ridgeline, not really to easy, 3,000 lbs. of porcelain tile in a Ridgeline, nope, an Entire kitchen full of cabinets in a Ridgeline, nope, I guess you better call me irrational then.

There are at least 500k pickup buyers per year that use their pickup to commute to their office job and go to Costco runs on the weekend and will never put drywall or plywood in the bed.

If those people bought rationally Honda would have sold 500k Ridgelines in 2018 instead of 30k.

If you are a tradesman or weekend warrior that actually uses F250s and Silverado 350s for their intended use then great you are buying rationally.

 

[gilscales]

There are at least 500k pickup buyers per year that use their pickup to commute to their office job and go to Costco runs on the weekend and will never put drywall or plywood in the bed.

Yes I would think at least that many considering that almost 2.5 million full size trucks were sold last year.
I read an earlier post of yours in this thread about Tesla making the pickup at least as capable as a F-250 and that is why I am holding out for the reveal, this is my hope as well that they have one very capable model that can span 1/2 ton, 3/4 ton and 1 ton buyers needs.

 

[RobStark]

Good point. Maybe a more aerodynamic version of the InsideEVs render.

The most aerodynamic version of that InsideEVs render would not be more aerodynamic than a 2019 Dodge Ram. Not even close.

 

[printf42]

OT:
Seems we need to manage the expectations for Pickup for a few weeks.

Let me start:
Elon himself said in a few different occasions that the design is so unusual, he absolutely love it but think it’s possible very few people agree with him.
But that’s ok, because pickup is a toy project of Tesla.

So, I say 99% people would say it’s too ugly to be seen in, and the rest 1% can’t afford it.

 

[CaliBear1]

Well, he did say APC. And I bet you can get some pretty interesting renders if you stuck that through an evolutionary design software, optimizing for aerodynamics.

Go Elon!

I know, it's an "Aliens" APC
and does not reflect "Bladerunner" style. But still...

Google Image Result for https://66.media.tumblr.com/210d88bdfc086b0a950250dfcf0d02db/tumblr_oby548Yqpw1qjsc4fo1_500.gifv

 

[RobStark]

Well, he did say APC. And I bet you can get some pretty interesting renders if you stuck that through an evolutionary design software, optimizing for aerodynamics.

That may just mean it will carry 6 people comfortably and safely.

With All Terrain Capability.

 

[JRP3]

My bet is on this being the closest render.

I'd agree except it doesn't look much like an APC.

 

[davepsilon]

The aesthetic design could be almost anything based on all the public comments. Technical features are perhaps easier to guess at. I'll guess a cab forward truck with multi-inch range active suspension, super long wheelbase, four wheel steering, and double stacked battery.

I've previously guessed a cab forward design makes sense for an EV truck as it maximizes bed length and passenger volume for a given overall length and you don't need an engine bay.

I'll further guess that the truck will feature an active suspension with a large range of travel. Jeep uses 3" of travel in their grand Cherokee air suspension between highway and off road. So I'd guess slightly more. Such a suspension can load balance but also can create high efficiency for highway driving and still have high clearance for rough roads. The recent raven model s has some ride height adjustment but for the pickup I expect it to be turned up to 11.

I'll guess a very long wheelbase with wheels placed near the front and back of the body. In order to get a reasonable turning radius this would need to be paired with four wheel steering - at least some range of motion on the rear, you don't need the same range as the front. I'm not a big fan of the cost implications for such a complex design. But cost can't control completely if you want to be the best truck on the market. The rear wheels being close to the hitch and being able to steer would make a great towing vehicle.

I think they'll be an option for a double stacked battery. The model 3 LR pack size seems like it just won't have the range for truck-duty use.

Looking forward to seeing what Tesla has put together!

 

[Don TLR]

So much talk about wanna-be truck owners. I live in the land of Truck Users, towing horse trailers, campers and trailers daily.
Quartzite in Arizona sees 2 Million RV's visiting each year, a large portion of those are pulled by trucks. Glamis Sand Dunes sees 50K people a weekend with well over 100K on big weekends and this data is very old using a quick search.
That's a LOT of trucks that get used regularly.

The need for real trucks that tow large loads is out there, hopefully Tesla can tap into this market.

 

[JRP3]

The need for real trucks that tow large loads is out there, hopefully Tesla can tap into this market.

The problem is of course range. Towing large loads with a heavy truck means even with a huge battery your range will be cut in half.

 

[JRP3]

I'll guess a very long wheelbase

Long wheelbase means a poor breakover angle and potential high centering when off road.

 

[Don TLR]

The problem is of course range. Towing large loads with a heavy truck means even with a huge battery your range will be cut in half.

Its going to need a lot of range before towing anything just to have a product people won't be afraid to buy.

 

[JRP3]

Depends, I've used trucks for years, taken them off road, towed, and never had to go more than 200 miles when towing something. I think a truck with 300-400 miles of range, which would equate to about 150-200 miles of towing range, would sell quite well, but not work for the type of people you're referencing. I don't think it's possible to build a truck with 600 miles of range, 300 miles towing, which seems to be the type of truck you're talking about.

 

[Skotty]

I'm going to guess it will use a power architecture that supports double the current battery standard, and that architecture will be used in both the truck and the Roadster. With current batteries, that means 200 kWh. Possibly with a short range option with 100 kWh.

Unless they have worked some magic with aerodynamics and it's sufficient to get by with less (in which case they would need a matching trailer to support efficient towing, which would be nice, but probably asking too much).

 

[Boomer19]

it’d be nice to grab 3%-5% of the market share in the US right away. i think we’re roughly 3mm pickups a year.

but, where are batteries and production lines to support that? not for at least a couple years. hopefully i’m underestimating.

but what else explains the hot/cold snippets we’ve heard so far
- best tesla product ever
- not for everyone

to me that reads,
“we’d love to sell 200k of these a year but we just aren’t there yet”

so, that granted them a little artistic freedom to reveal something more envelope- pushing.
they can’t address the more conservative percentiles yet anyway

sounds more like x and roadster then 3 and y

again, i hope i’m wrong and he was just playing coy the whole time.

because penetrating the pickup market immediately with a backlog of orders would be delightful.

 

[Don TLR]

Elon did say it might not be for everyone but he loves it. Maybe the truck for everyone comes later when they get another Gigafactory pumping out batteries.

 

[AudubonB]

“We” have been “blank-sheet” designing a dream EV pickup for...yikes...quite a few years now, and are truly eager for the 11/21 reveal.

We have been careful (we hope) not to violate design fundamentals of the space-time continuum as currently understood. That is, for example -

1. No: a long wheelbase (ie, long-bed, long cab) design cannot also have good proof against high-centering, AND the low clearance seemingly necessary for the best aerodynamics.

2. You cannot have a high departure angle AND a long tail.

And so forth. Restrictions like those are about as close to First Principles of Design as one can get.

But - for us, at least - the greatest challenge has been in suspension. Of all the various ways to hang a pickup’s body on its drivetrain - there are about a half-dozen such - we concluded that the only one that can provide both good road-handling characteristics AND the ability to raise the vehicle enough to make it a practical off-road truck is with that near-chimera, a well-designed multipoint suspension.

That is beyond our ken. But Tesla, with its computing capabilities a bit more sophisticated than our two Josephson junctions , presumably has been able to work its magic and come up with the appropriate solution.

There are two proofs to apply to this suspension pudding. First the obvious: does the truck handle well at highway speeds - all the standard cone-weaving criteria and so forth - AND have the ability to raise the truck by a minimum of 100mm? That’s ultra-easy to determine: put it through its paces.

The second one, though, is at least as important: how robust is it? A multipoint suspension is inherently more fragile than its alternatives, and given the complexity of its makeup, loaded with potentials for weak spots. Give me 12 hours with the truck on my Denali Highway and I’ll let you know the answer.

Let’s all hope for the best!

 

[Doc Brown]

ED If people purchased trucks rationally the Honda Ridgeline would be a top seller instead of a bottom dweller.

I disagree. the Ridgeline AWD gets 18/25 mpg, can only tow (max) 5,000#, and has 262 lb-ft of torque. The F-150 with the 3.5L Ecoboost will produce 470 lb-ft of torque at lower RPMs, can tow north of 10K#, and gets 17/23 mpg. If you get it with the 2.7, the mileage is on par with the Honda. Most people that tow need more than 5K# capacity, especially on a long haul (I would never want to tow anywhere near the upper limit of my vehicle).

The F-series has a full 1/3 of the overall truck market. There’s a reason.

and - in the interest of disclosure - I own a Tundra. Trouble-free for 135K miles and 7 years. terrible on gas. I was going to pull the trigger on an F-150 but am waiting for the electric trucks to roll out this year. I expect Ford’s electric F-150 to do well. The competition will be great.