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Long term Tesla will probably want a "full-size" Suburban/Sequia/Expedition/Armada competitor but the volume of these models is a fraction of the pickup market. It's not the same sales volume gain as expanding a sedan platform to sedan + CUV. So I'd guess that's a long ways out.

In terms of having a large addressable market Model X is at the upper end of the size sweet spot (aka "mid-size"). You might even do best if you were going to do a pickup+SUV of making the new SUV a similar size as the X. Products would be differentiated with X = sporty and the new one = rugged.
 
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If there is an $85k Tesla SUV, (in the range 58-110), what is the reason to have an X (beyond falcon doors)? To make X compelling, the SUV would need to nerfed on seating or range.

The biggest reason is that the Chinese love Model X and falcon wing doors.

The second reason is the same reason Cadillac has Escalade and XT6 and Lincoln has Navigator and Aviator.

Some want a car like 7 passenger vehicle that is not the length and width of a full size truck. Some do with bonafide towing and/or off roading capability.


Dictating?? Seriously? Just because Tesla was the only company taking electrification seriously and the only company with products in their class hardly means they were dictating.

Seriously. Tesla tells customers that can't have leather. Tesla tells people they don't need grab handles or sunglass holders. They still tell Model S buyers they don't need door bins.

They offer then take away things like ventilated seats, sun roofs and alcantara headliners. Features that are offered by all or almost all competitors in the price class.

And their most annoying dictation to customers is you can only choose from 5 colors. Most direct competitors offer a dozen colors or so. Some offer custom colors.

Elon never planned to be the only EV producer. If anything, staying out of the SUV space might encourage others to enter it. Whether people buy what they are selling is a seperate issue.

Elon did plan to be a full line car manufacture. That means selling a full lineup of SUV and Crossovers. The hottest biggest sellers in the industry. Others don't need encouraging in 2020. See Rivian Bollinger and GM. It should be a no brainer to enter the biggest and most profitable segment in the USA for a US manufacture.
 
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Long term Tesla will probably want a "full-size" Suburban/Sequia/Expedition/Armada competitor but the volume of these models is a fraction of the pickup market. It's not the same sales volume gain as expanding a sedan platform to sedan + CUV. So I'd guess that's a long ways out.

In terms of having a large addressable market Model X is at the upper end of the size sweet spot (aka "mid-size"). You might even do best if you were going to do a pickup+SUV of making the new SUV a similar size as the X. Products would be differentiated with X = sporty and the new one = rugged.

Most full size SUVs are on backorder and are sold without discount, at least not a very large one.

The reason they don't sell in bigger numbers is because OEMs don't manufacture them in bigger numbers. Because that would bust their CAFE targets.

Tesla has no such worries.
 
As much as *I* personally want a large SUV, I'd rather Tesla focused their "variant" efforts on making two pickups - a smaller lifestyle one and a larger workhorse, a la F150/350.

F150 is a quarter ton truck and F350 is three quarter ton truck.

You can get either in various cab configurations and bed lengths.

F150 ranges in length from 209"-250"

F350 ranges in length from 232"-266" because you can't get a standard cab with F350.

The F Series is a stream of trucks of various cabs, frames, and powertrains.

Elon already said one feature in the truck will be automatic load leveling. Which suggest heavy duty applications. I think Tesla will be able to manufacture a Truck with F250 capability, the everyday comfort of an F150, and with lower TCO than an F150.

So no need to offer as many options as Ford.
 
Seriously. Tesla tells customers that can't have leather. Tesla tells people they don't need grab handles or sunglass holders. They still tell Model S buyers they don't need door bins.

They offer then take away things like ventilated seats, sun roofs and alcantara headliners. Features that are offered by all or almost all competitors in the price class.

And their most annoying dictation to customers is you can only choose from 5 colors. Most direct competitors offer a dozen colors or so. Some offer custom colors.

Again, Tesla being the only maker of EVs does not means they are dictating what an EV should be. Tesla does not say you cannot wrap your car to get any color you want. Not offering options (with your product) is different from saying you can't have options (from any product).

Apple has 0 phones with stylus, however there are other players in the game so I can get a Note for my oversized hands to use. If you want an Apple, you get no stylus.

Elon did plan to be a full line car manufacture. That means selling a full lineup of SUV and Crossovers. The hottest biggest sellers in the industry. Others don't need encouraging in 2020. See Rivian Bollinger and GM. It should be a no brainer to enter the biggest and most profitable segment in the USA for a US manufacture.

Yeah, I don't disagree with Tesla making an SUV, it just seems that would make more sense after pickup and semi. If they have the cell supply and production capacity to launch at volume sooner without restricting the production of other vehicles, then no reason not to go for it (since X shares the S GA line, even if that demand falls off a cliff, their flexibility and costs stay mostly stable).

If making the the SUV requires limiting production numbers while also cutting X sales, then it seems they should wait.
 
Tesla can't announce a new SUV now without killing X sales. Cyberpunk pickup vs. model X are pretty much at opposite ends of the potential buyers mindset.

The ROI of replacing the S/X platform is probably unattractive at this point in time. Pickup and light duty truck variants is all new business.
 
F150 is a half ton truck, F250 is a 3/4 ton truck, F350 is a 1 ton truck. Truck classification - Wikipedia
And the real world F-150 payload is around 1 ton (1,500 to 3,200 based on power train), the 250: 2 tons, and 350: 3 tons

ford_payload.PNG
 
I took the Tesla Pickup Truck teaser image from Elon's tweet:

Elon Musk on Twitter: "About a minute in, we flashed a teaser pic of Tesla cyberpunk truck"

D1vXOCdVAAA5-dm.jpeg

... and tried to make the most proportionate looking car-front from it via simple photo editing.

I changed the orientation, highlighted color details to distract from expectations of the original:

LRM_EXPORT_242222567794095_20191028_223229147-03.jpeg

I didn't add anything to the original image, other than color transformations, rotations and filling out the borders.

Gonna be pretty good looking IMHO. :D
 
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Average truck bed generator for a job-site would be 5-7 kw. If you actually needed that much power continuously for , say 5 hours per day (you would not) that is under 30kwh of power per day. Given the battery needed to give a truck a 300 mile range (probably 90 kwh) that is 30% of the charge per day. Work trucks like that typically only travel 10-50 miles per day. Should be a piece of cake.
And in reality the actual time spend discharging those tools is probably 1-2 hours total, so it gets even better.
A gas generator must run constantly in order to have the power available on demand. The Tesla truck would just supply it prn.
Come to think of it, you could pull a nice little food truck trailer and not need the stupid loud generator so I could enjoy my beers at the brewery and hear the band instead of the generator. :D
As a person who has spent some time around job site generators, getting rid of the gen noise alone would be a godsend and make it worth the cost of the truck.
 
I still think Tesla might usefully poach a couple of expert engineers to fine tune the Model 3 P's handling precision.

No doubt, it could be tuned to control the body motion better in fast transitions and over humps and bumps but it's already better than 95% of the cars on the road. And improving control of body motion would necessarily result in reductions in ride comfort, noise, vibration and harshness. Most people don't want that.

IMO, Tesla struck the perfect balance between driving dynamics and ride quality. It's not a sports car. But it's pretty close in all the right ways and none of the wrong ways. And it will embarrass a lot of them.
 
For a contractor, it needs to be 220 miles fully loaded with lots of stop and go. So 350 miles would be about right.
There is the second group of trailer pulling and camper back trucks. 350 miles probably isn't enough for them, or just barely enough in nice weather.
However, most trucks are bought in lieu of cars, my understanding, so the contractor scenario is moot.

If contractors and ranchers think your truck is a joke then poseurs want nothing to do with your truck.

Urban Cowboys want a real cowboy truck even if they never leave the City.
 
If contractors and ranchers think your truck is a joke then poseurs want nothing to do with your truck.

Urban Cowboys want a real cowboy truck even if they never leave the City.

If it seats at least 4, I am considering getting it. The contrast of a massive truck being greener than most cars is too much amusement to pass up.

I have absolutely no real use for it though. Maybe I plug in a dryer to the 220V and offer remote clothes drying services. Or a GPU stack and offer remote machine learning training (who needs AWS?)
 
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If contractors and ranchers think your truck is a joke then poseurs want nothing to do with your truck.

Urban Cowboys want a real cowboy truck even if they never leave the City.

This is part of the reason I think Tesla makes a 'Cyberpunk' truck and a 'regular truck'. (or supplies GM with powertrains for one).