E90alex
Active Member
The advanced setting has been claimed to just be a placebo. Mines always been on advanced and never got 2024.8.x branch. Went from 2024.2.7 to 2024.3.10 with FSDS v12.3.3
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All US Cars capable of FSD will be enabled for one month trial this week
- Thread starter Ron97062
- Start date
I know of a family with two Model 3's. One is on advanced, one is on standard.
The advanced one got 3.X and the FSD trial. The standard one is on 8.9 now and no FSD trial.
It's a placebo: Software Update Standard vs Advanced
BitJam
Active Member
This is very silly but I will try to explain it to you because it is also very simple. I am skeptical of Elon's precise predictions about the future, particularly release dates and FSD predictions. For example, I am completely underwhelmed by the announcement of an 8/8 robotaxi unveil even though the hopium addicts are using it to get high on their own supply. Likewise, I don't trust Elon when it comes to his politics and his personal insults.
OTOH, he is usually much more reliable when it comes to making verifiable statements about the past. If his track record about the past were as bad as his delivery date and FSD predictions then he would no longer be CEO of any company and he would probably be in jail due to being called out for lying by the SEC and others.
You seem to have taken the opposite approach, giving zero credence to his verifiable statements about the past while making a big deal of your faux Charlie Brown football flops when Elon's predictions about delivery dates or FSD don't come true. Much worse, you use that as a cockamamie excuse to disbelieve anything else Elon says as it suits you.
For example, do you think Elon's claims that they are spending billions of dollars on FSD compute are also a pack of lies? Your faux total distrust of whatever Elon says makes a reasonable discussion with you on these topics impossible. I politely categorize this as "being silly."
This is ridiculous! On Wall Street "short-term" means quarter by quarter, or at most one year out. For example, Mary Barra gets most of her money from short term movements of the GM stock price so she has focused on short-term profits to the detriment of the long-term health of the company. Elon's compensation package was based on long-term results over a number of years, putting the company on a successful and healthy trajectory.
Reality is the exact opposite of what you claim it to be.
Elon saying Tesla is worth basically zero without FSD is exactly in accord with what I've been saying. They are investing heavily in solving FSD with massive investment in training computers and now with a wide release of FSD to gather more data. This is a long-term investment that only pays off if they actually solve FSD.
The idea that Elon lied about not being compute constrained and then squandered the golden data-gathering opportunity provided by the free trial is beyond absurd. There is no clear evidence it lifted the stock, and even if it did, a small bump in the stock price does not help Elon at all. The idea that Elon squandered billions of dollars in investment and opportunity to get a blip in the stock price makes zero sense.
Again, what you say is the opposite of reality. Unlike Mary Barra and many/most other CEOs, Elon does not get paid with stock options. He doesn't benefit or lose from short term stock movements. His previous compensation package had only long-term multi-year milestones.
Perhaps you conveniently forgot, but back in 2022, Elon tanked the Tesla stock price by selling off a bunch of shares in order to buy Twitter. If you insist on continuing to push this nonsense of yours then you need to explain the mechanism by which Elon substantially benefits from short term movements in the stock price. He doesn't.
Spending $10B to get massively more compute and then opening the data floodgates once enough of that compute comes online makes perfect sense to me. These being mere shams to jiggle the stock prices makes no sense.
The data centers being able to handle much more data is independent of how quickly they can port v12 to all branches of their firmware. Again, you make the error of conflating Elon's verifiable statements about the past with him being off the mark in a prediction about the future.
OTOH, Elon's announcement of an 8/8 robotaxi announcement does seem like a song and dance to jiggle the stock price. It is a vague prediction about the future that costs him almost nothing to make.
Tesla has been massively ramping up their training compute for over a year. If they were only able to catch up with the data from their current set of testers recently then they were massively compute constrained for a long time. Which means they didn't need a lot more testers.
Compute constrained ==> we don't need more testers
No longer constrained ==> we need more testers ASAP!
Also, a year ago Elon told us they would give a free trial or a nearly free trial to everyone once FSD was safe enough and smooth enough.
In addition, as you probably know, there seems to be a delay in porting v12 to the 2024.8 branch. Perhaps a delay that Elon did not foresee. It seems reasonable to assume they are still planning give a free trial to those on the 2024.8 branch. But I would not be terribly surprised if they are waiting to get results from the first free trial release before they make the second one.
No. Of course not. Their plan is to actually get FSD to work and then use it as a major source of income. Releasing the free trial now gets them lots of new data now without cutting off future income.
The world is not black and white. Elon doesn't always lie or always tell the truth. The amount of data Tesla needs for FSD changes over time. The data they are collecting this month will help them figure out what data and how much data they are going to want next month.
Of all Tesla's data gathering strategies, the one you propose is probably one of their worst options. They don't get the data right away; they don't get as much data right away; and they cut off a major chuck of their potential FSD income.
Investing $10 billion in compute is not hype. Embarking on one of the largest data gathering operations in the history of mankind is not hype. Also, what friggin' bump? There may have bene a small bump from the robotaxi announcement announcement but that didn't cost them $10 billion.
Like you, I'm on the 2024.8 branch so I don't have v12 yet. When I tried v11 last year I have evidence it uploaded 18 Gig after only 3 hours of driving. There are not many Teslas around here. Even fewer with FSD. I went on a winding moutain road into the Gila National Forest outside of cell coverage. After about 3 hours of driving, FSD stopped working even though I did nothing wrong and it only started to work again after the car had cell coverage. One explanation is they filled their internal storage with data and once it was full they stopped collecting more data by turning off FSD.
The amount of data needed to train neural nets is mind-boggling. A few years ago it was discovered that the more non-redundant data you give them the better they get with no clear limit in sight. Unfortunately, improvements become slower and you need more and more data to make the same sized improvements.
As mentioned before, the data Tesla has been getting from their beta testers may have been becoming redundant so improvements in FSD were getting even smaller when they turned the same data crank with new data from the same testers. It makes perfect sense that they would now want to get data from a more diverse set of drivers from more diverse regions of the country. Which is exactly what the free trial gives them.
zoomer0056
Active Member
If the car is set to Standard it will get more stable software that has bern run on many cars before your car gets it. If it's set to Advanced it is likely to be new software that has some bugs yo work out.
As it is, my car is set to Standard and my car got the 2024.3.10 with v12.3.3 just like everyone else.
So I don't think software preference has anything to do with who got the free FSD (Supervised).
"Funding secured"
"All cars this week"
"Faster than a Porsche 911 in a quarter mile"
"The driver is only here for legal reasons"
"These windows won't break when you throw a metal ball at them"
All lies, all not future looking. And this is ignoring all the craziness around what he's said about COVID and Twitter.
And one would notice that he's been fined by the SEC multiple times for lying and fraud. Billionaires don't go to jail though.
Perhaps you conveniently forgot that this was mandated by a court of law after he spent a huge amount to get out of his legally binding contract.
What compensation are you discussing? His $56B pay package that was invalidated because he LIED about the board being independent was based on hitting a milestone market cap for even one day. That comp package started in 2019, so it's only existed for 5 years, and it paid out fully in just a few years. There were no long term goals in there.
Like I said before, being of the belief that of course Elon lies about all sorts of future stuff, but anything he's said about something that has supposedly already happened like "we're no longer compute constrained" must be true is just not a dissonance I can pull off. Guy isn't even informed enough to know if it's possible to put all cars on a FSD SW version within a week. Why should I trust him that what was limiting AP development before was compute, but no worries, now they aren't compute constrained? Isn't the very theory that compute was their constraint just another unproven Elon hope and dream? Who cares if they were compute constrained if that wasn't the fundamental issue to getting to FSD? I've been hearing for 7 years what their limits are to getting FSD actually working, and yet here we are with "FSD" that requires constant human monitoring and disables itself if it doesn't have cell coverage.
Tesla is screaming that they have gotten 1 Billion miles on FSD from paying customers. There's only 4M miles of roads in the USA. There's no reason to believe that paying for FSD was self selecting for the area of the USA you live in, and we already know dense cities are the hardest places to drive, so it's good we get more data there. This idea that the free FSD trial is a way to get more coverage in low coverage areas just doesn't statistically pan out.
Even better, all of this "we're giving a free trial to get data" is all an assumption. Even he didn't bother to say that. Elon, ever the hype man, couldn't be bothered to say "Since we're no longer compute constrained, we need data, so everyone is greeting a free trial, and this is going to hyper accelerate." But yeah, let's actually add to they hype and make up reasons for why the free trial is happening in week one of a financial quarter that also happens to include FSD transfers. It's because they are finally ready for an extra 250M* miles this month. Bring it**!
** For 1M cars to collect 1B miles in 1 month would require 1K miles on every car on FSD, which is every mile driven that month. Given maybe 50% of cars are going to get/use FSD, and if they are lucky they get 50% of those miles on FSD, one month of 'all" US cars is going to be about a quarter as much data as they already had.
*Just maybe not THAT much? Maybe 50%?
Right...so you didn't get 2024.8.4 or 8.7 which was the latest and more buggy software (now onto 8.8 and 8.9 to iron out those bugs). Instead you were likely still on the stable 2.6 or 2.7 which most of us were still on. Then you got the 3.10 which Elon thought was stable and good enough to release to the masses.
I'm on advanced and I hadn't got 8.X before I got the 3.10. My friend on advance got 8.4 before 3.10 was released so he will keep on waiting for the next FSD release and hope it comes on a build higher than 8.9 (which he just got pushed today).
The only reason software preference might have had an effect (unless it is all placebo and means nothing) is because the people on the latest, less stable release (8.4 and 8.7) didn't get the FSD beta because they didn't have a build on those most recent base versions.
Luckily most of us whether we were set to Standard or Advanced were still on 2.6 or 2.7 and therefore we got the trial. Only 10-20% had already got the 8.4 or 8.7 updates. Overall it is pretty random. My friend an I always compare when we get updates. On average he gets updates earlier than I do. But sometimes I get them before him. No rhyme or reason to why which I think is pretty much the accepted truth. We are both on Advanced if that even matters.
BitJam
Active Member
He spent a small amount in legal fees compared to what he had to spend to buy Twitter. Committing to buy Twitter put the Tesla stock price at risk. This flies in the face of your claims that he is obsessed with the short term Tesla stock price.
Having the stock 10x and getting the production lines on a firm footing were the long term goals. For Wall Street, looking ahead 5 years is an eternity. Elon meeting those long-term goals earlier than expected does not make them less long term.
The judge in the Delaware case was overtly biased against Elon, even in her ruling. That ruling is being appealed and may well be overturned. It is premature to say Elon lied. In fact, if Elon had actually lied before the court then it would have been perjury which not even the biased judge is claiming. The world is filled with disagreements that don't involve lies.
But more importantly, unless you are claiming Elon has magical precognition, the ruling in Delaware had nothing to do with Elon working on long term goals under the compensation package.
Your claim that goals set 5 years in the future are not long term is ridiculous. If you want to show that Elon benefits from short term stock movements then you will have to show us stock options or something like that. Which don't exist.
That is not what I said at all! I didn't say or imply we should trust ever verifiable thing he has said about the past. In addition, Tesla recently invested over $10 billion in FSD computing so finally having enough compute power for the current streams of data is no big surprise.
Yes, quite a puzzle that the CEO has his eyes on the big picture but is not hung up on the minutia of all their firmware branches. Your repeated reliance on false equivalence is tiresome.
I trust the $10+ billion dollars they've invested in FSD compute. Are you claiming that is a sham too?
I would not (and did not) say "no worries". But a massive (and successful) investment in compute power combined with a massive influx of relevant data and an end-to-end neural net are the best ways I know of to actually solve FSD.
To me, Elon's statement about not being compute constrained meant they were able to get a lot of their new hardware wired up and working. A monumental task. It bodes well for them to continue wiring up new hardware and getting more compute online. I didn't think Dojo was going to outpace Nvidia and I wasn't sure they would be able to get enough compute online in a timely manner. So for me, Elon's announcement combined with the free trial was very exciting news.
Getting relevant and non-redundant data is key. You constantly ignoring this fact does not make it less true.
Tesla's $10+ billion investment in FSD compute says otherwise. So do all the AI experts. All of them. There were previous bottlenecks with the team of 2000 human labelers and the 300K lines of human written code in the cars. But those are in the past. Currently FSD progress is limited by compute and high quality non-redundant data. Will those be enough to get them to a robotaxi level of FSD? I don't know. It will be very interesting to find out and to see what happens next.
IMO assuming everything Elon says is wrong is just as bad as assuming everything he says is right. People who think he can do nothing right are just as off-track as people who think he can do nothing wrong.
We are all imperfect beings living in an imperfect world.
Clearly you hate Elon but those were not all lies just more examples of an excurburant
Let me just pick on one point... Funding secured.. it turned out he had funding secured at higher than he tweeted... Did you short sell or something?
What seems likely is he should’ve said supervised FSD on all purchases of new vehicles. But he didn’t, so they had to scramble to get it out to as many people as possible. Still waiting here, two updates since he said that, still no free trial of FSD.
zoomer0056
Active Member
Tesla was already giving new owners one month of free FSD.
2024.8.9
Still waiting. Going on two and soon to be three weeks since the announcement.
For those on 2024.8.x with no FSD v12: there is a post on X from Tesla saying that we should get the v12, and therefore, the one-month free FSD trial, next week. According to Reddit. Last name of the dude posting this was Patel. Which means 100% guaranteed
BitJam
Active Member
@paulchou posted a picture of Patel's tweet in a different thread:
Tesla is no longer slow-walking FSD. They just cut the subscription price in half. They want everyone to try v12. There was a minor technical snag porting v12 to one of the firmware branches. Not a big deal and certainly not the end of the friggin' world as some have portrayed.
I've worked in software for many year. Tesla getting these changes done so quickly in mission critical software where lives and the company's reputation are on the line is absolutely amazing.
Have you missed every single time Tesla has been sued or had NHTSA come after them? Their argument every single time is that this is L2, and is NOT "critical" software and that it cannot injure anyone. Only bad drivers not paying attention can be injured.
I am so confused how you think this is quick. They have had years to plan for this, yet when their CEO says "this week" they are wholly unprepared. The fact they are having to react quickly to a marketing tweet is exactly NOT how safety critical software is done. Plus, the 12% number is complete BS according to TeslaFi which shows more like 30% are still on an 8.X version. An 8.X version that they have had years to plan on how to move people off of when they need to move to FSD.
For some people. For those with EAP, FSD is still the same subscription price as it ever was, even though buying it is cheaper than if you don't own EAP. Everything hear smells of having to do quick, uncoordinated responses to a manic CEO than some sort of 4D chess plan
BitJam
Active Member
Have you missed the number of times that the people who sue Tesla lose (which is pretty much every time)? It's not because Tesla has a great legal team, it is because it always comes out that it was a user error.
You can't have "user error" against a "safety critical" system.
You're proving my point. FSD is L2. Tesla can (and has) released complete trash FSD software. It's not "amazing how fast Tesla is getting life critical software out". This flat out isn't life critical software, it's a R&D toy, where the user is always blamed for "error" if something goes wrong. Of course you can get that software out fast. (I mean, if figuring out how to release existing software to cars in 3+ weeks can be called "fast" when you've been releasing software to cars for 12 years!?)
...Which I agree with. FSD is just an expensive toy right now. Which is why we shouldn't say breathless things like "It's amazing how quick Tesla is at safety critical software." The FSD team hasn't been tasked with safety critical software at all in 2016-2024, and nobody is saying 12.X is anything beyond L2 either.
But just like some people are always skeptical about FSD, some will support it no matter what happens, and say that every delay, mis-behavior, or cost reduction is a GOOD THING that Tesla is doing because they are so far ahead!
You know, like free FSD trials and reduced subscription costs clearly being about DATA COLLECTION because the data is SOOOO valuable. It for sure isn't a last minute attempt at revenue in a quarter when Tesla is laying off 10% of their staff due to sagging sales.
Still waiting for FSD trial on either of my cars that was promised on all cars 2 weeks ago. Sure is amazing how "quick" Tesla is in handling this "minor technical snag in porting."
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