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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014
Thanks for your great synopsis DaveT. I'm just beyond words how GS could release a research note the day after GF announcement and not mention the concept and how it affects TSLA's future value?!?
If I paid money for access to that report I'd demand a refund. If I were a GS client I'd give them some real sour feedback. Thankfully I'm neither!
Thanks for your great synopsis DaveT. I'm just beyond words how GS could release a research note the day after GF announcement and not mention the concept and how it affects TSLA's future value?!?
If I paid money for access to that report I'd demand a refund. If I were a GS client I'd give them some real sour feedback. Thankfully I'm neither!
This might sound really cynical, but I think some clients pay for research they "want" to read rather than anything that necessarily makes sense. Not that I'm accusing anyone of anything here
This is where things go a little crazy. There is no convention to bring ordinary stock investors into pricing an earnings ramp that goes out to, in this case, 2018. If autos rarely trade over 15X forward year earnings, and don't deserve Tesla's valuation (for a host of reasons I am all-in with), that does not mean we should price F, GM, etc, at 10X 2018 earnings in six months. These analysts are dialing the bull/bear of their pitch. The trend is up with them, but even with this sauce, they’re landing on $170. FWIW, I agree 170k-200k units, in ’18, sounds low.
Tesla deserves a whole lot, but Musk said a while ago the price is unjustified/lofty. I’d expect him to drop the conversion price from the Barron’s rumored $348-360, down to $300 or lower if he thought his shareholders would stick around for it. He has capital to raise, and it’s either that, or pay a high enough interest rate on the notes so that a 1.8bb borrowing can find enough investors.
Beyond the 35,000 unit target, I think growth away from autos is definitely explaining much of the recent leg up. But that raises the bar in that sector. I can see “second life” use for auto batteries, as home backup. Not major. More importantly, with CA’s 1.3GW storage mandate being the first of what may be many, the question of what chemistry is most competitive should’ve been evaluated by Jonas. Did he? (I’d love to get his report, if a kind sole would PM). If you say these auto analysts don’t get it, does that mean that CA’s 00.7% of statewide electric generation (EIA 2012) coming from solar needs to find a battery, in 6 years? One thing CPUC will probably stand by is enough net metering economics to keep folks from wanting to go behind the meter (needing batteries). It isn’t just PG&E and SCE who depend on those revenues. All kinds of publics push 5-10% of them to local government. You’re right, this valuation needs to price in something past the auto-analysts.
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In response to the GS report...
After watching Inside Job about the 2008 financial crisis (worth a watch for anybody who has not seen in) I was left with disbelief at just how much these big investment firms push their own agenda (making $$$$) even at the expense of their clients. I do not feel things have changed in the last 6 years at all. I do not trust anyone's report, even Morgan Stanley. A few folks on here pointed out that MS's price target was autonomous of their underwriting part of the share/notes offering, as there are laws saying how analysts cannot correspond/share info with 'traders' and vice versa. Personally I very, very, very highly doubt there was no collusion. It is plainly obvious from the huge revelations that that keep unfolding (housing market crash, libor rate scandal, etc. ) that greed is the prime motivating factor on wall street. There is a notable lack of ethics, and accountability, making these reports in my opinion, worthless.
After watching Inside Job about the 2008 financial crisis (worth a watch for anybody who has not seen in) I was left with disbelief at just how much these big investment firms push their own agenda (making $$$$) even at the expense of their clients. I do not feel things have changed in the last 6 years at all. I do not trust anyone's report, even Morgan Stanley. A few folks on here pointed out that MS's price target was autonomous of their underwriting part of the share/notes offering, as there are laws saying how analysts cannot correspond/share info with 'traders' and vice versa. Personally I very, very, very highly doubt there was no collusion. It is plainly obvious from the huge revelations that that keep unfolding (housing market crash, libor rate scandal, etc. ) that greed is the prime motivating factor on wall street. There is a notable lack of ethics, and accountability, making these reports in my opinion, worthless.
Can you please deliver this quote, in context?
I think you will find that he did not say that. He said the company would have to grow into it. What do you think the gigafactory is about? That's exactly what "growing into it" is. People are trading this stock on a few years from now, not now. Now is relevant only in that it increases or decreases the likelihood of the future being positive.
I haven't had time to do any of my own in-depth analysis lately because of my new schedule but I just have to thank those who are able to do so.
I was wondering what was putting a lot of downward pressure on the stock today after the favorable gigafactory announcement yesterday and saw the mentions of BofA and Goldman. If it weren't for these two, I think TSLA would be in the 270s now.
As far as technicals and charts goes, TSLA is on the path of going back into the channel it was in between May and October of 2013. That threshold for that channel, as of today, is around 274 with roughly a 1 point rise every day it's not in the channel. In other words, 275 tomorrow, 276 Monday, and so on.
Personally, I can see a scenario where TSLA will see a massive push upward back into the May-October channel in the coming weeks then hit some resistance at 300. Other than the May-October channel, we're deep into uncharted territory with no real support and resistance levels being tested.
I was wondering what was putting a lot of downward pressure on the stock today after the favorable gigafactory announcement yesterday and saw the mentions of BofA and Goldman. If it weren't for these two, I think TSLA would be in the 270s now.
As far as technicals and charts goes, TSLA is on the path of going back into the channel it was in between May and October of 2013. That threshold for that channel, as of today, is around 274 with roughly a 1 point rise every day it's not in the channel. In other words, 275 tomorrow, 276 Monday, and so on.
Personally, I can see a scenario where TSLA will see a massive push upward back into the May-October channel in the coming weeks then hit some resistance at 300. Other than the May-October channel, we're deep into uncharted territory with no real support and resistance levels being tested.
Chickenlittle
Banned
i dont believe it was the analysts. we dont know the prices that are being shopped for the bonds. its interesting that the stock stuck around 250 range wouldnt be surprised if that is what the bonds are based on. to the general market they just are raising money for another factory without realizing the significance. i am concerned about the next report. q3 report had a warning of 1000 cars in transport but market didnt take that into account. q1 carries same warning but i suspect if its 1000 cars headed to china that will be different. i believe the PT of 320 is good but represents may not be realized for another year
Check out Lovallo getting singled out unflatteringly by CNN for this sloppy and incomplete analysis. That's some pretty mainstream media attention for this "minority of one."
Jonas's last major upgrade included a footnote that said if Tesla can sell 500,000 vehicles, and achieve 20% operating margins, the stock is worth ~$800. Now that he's recognizing the value of Tesla in the energy storage business, and as a supplier to other companies, he's basically indirectly saying the stock could easily be worth $1000-$1500.
This is a great thread. Just reading DaveT's summary of the most recent bearish report. Man, that analyst is grasping at straws. If the gigafactory reduces battery cost 30% he somehow things capital intensity will ruin the story? And to suggest that lead acid is going to compete in the energy storage market .. lead acid gets what ... 41 Wh/Kg versus something like 260 Wh/Kg for Li-Ion (on its way to 360 if Elon is right)? So you can put a Tesla battery on your wall ... or you can build a lead-filled extra room for your house to save a few bucks
Whenever I see a big bear I ask myself if the argument is the same argument that has been utterly PROVEN as wrong over the last couple of years. If it is the same argument, no need to pay any attention.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Since Lovallo gas such a low price target does anyone know his position on the stock. With that low of a price target he should gave done money on the line for his massively short position?
It would be illegal for an analyst to short a stock without disclosing it. There are a lot of amateurs (I say this as a statment of truth, not judgement or as an insult to anyone, and this is not directed at you, shadows) who see big conspiracy theories and wrongdoing everywhere in an industry (Wall Street) that they don't understand. Most analyst are honest and publish what they believe is true. This guy Lovallo has been wrong, but I doubt he's lying about his view or illegally trading around it.
If I was this analyst Lovallo and so wrong about a stock I cover for so long, more wrong than everyone else....then I might talk myself into staying on the contrarian side of all the other analysts. It would be the only way I could redeem myself, for the stock to flip back in my favor making all the other analysts more wrong than me and making me the smart one that investors should have been following all along.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Your comments are quite interesting since I am not a conspiracy theorist and I do not believe that I have ever had that tone in the hundreds of posts I have shared here. Since I do not have access to his report I was asking if in his disclosure he disclosed that he was short.
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