Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Jonas has seriously lost his game. What's his nick here on TMC? I'm sure he or his assistants follow our threads for info and "rumors".
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Remember the issues around the Model S retracting handles? These were a complete engineering nightmare, increased costs, and were flaky, at least originally. But they were Elon's signature touch on the Model S; there was no doubt they were going to be part of the final design.
I see the falcon-wing doors on the Model X as equivalent. It's what Elon has been touting about the Model X; it is central to his vision of making a great cross-over. I refuse to believe that the Model X will be released without falcon wings.
I see the falcon-wing doors on the Model X as equivalent. It's what Elon has been touting about the Model X; it is central to his vision of making a great cross-over. I refuse to believe that the Model X will be released without falcon wings.
Anyone who believes that the X will go into production without the Falcon Wing doors is delusional.
Not crazy at all and the likely explanation for the delay, at least in part. But certainly it is a solvable engineering challenge.
I have no particular inside knowledge of the situation with the X or it's doors, but from my outside perspective, I tend to think the 'delay' is more of a business decision than an engineering decision. In other words, it seems like Tesla doesn't really need the revenue from the Model X to get to Gen III. There is much more cash flow available to them sooner if they focus on continuing to ramp up the Model S production and increase the efficiency of production on the S. This gives Tesla more money so they can fulfill Elon's directive to spend as much money as possibly as quickly as possible without wasting it. Also it's easier for them to iterate and improve the S as it's an existing product with many of the larger engineering hurdles and challenges overcome. Now they are in a refinement phase with the Model S and continuing to use it to get real world data from tens of thousands of real world drivers. It's a smart business decision to slow down the release of the X in my opinion. But Tesla has to have a fine balance between disappointing it's customers by slowing down the X release and improving it's financial strength and it's business operations. Delay the X too much and it's reputation and brand equity could take a significant hit.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk (2014) - YouTube
In this video, Elon says that Model X is inspired by Mercedes Gull-wing door car at the mark 33:00. The video was released on Nov 5. X may be delayed, but the falcon wing doors are here to stay.
In this video, Elon says that Model X is inspired by Mercedes Gull-wing door car at the mark 33:00. The video was released on Nov 5. X may be delayed, but the falcon wing doors are here to stay.
I remember in the 3Q ER when Elon was asked if the delay with Model X was due to any particular issues. Elon replied that the delay is just ironing out the details in many different areas, in getting the vehicle just right. I will take him at his word on this matter.
Nonetheless, when Jonas said Model X would be delayed, and it was again, he attributed this statement to a lack of Model X vehicles being tested on the open roads. I'm rather inclined to believe he has someone at Tesla sharing information. For this reason, I cannot entirely rule out a gull-wing door issue.
Nonetheless, when Jonas said Model X would be delayed, and it was again, he attributed this statement to a lack of Model X vehicles being tested on the open roads. I'm rather inclined to believe he has someone at Tesla sharing information. For this reason, I cannot entirely rule out a gull-wing door issue.
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^^This^^, ....and, TM did set the bar very high with the S. Yes, some glitches with the door handles, 12v bats but all those were overlooked because the car was unique and compelling. Production ramp of the S was slow and early adopters would be more forgiving. Any problems could be identified and fixed on a small number of cars. The X will not be granted the 'glitches'. They will ramp quickly and can't afford a large number of them on the road with them needing to be called in to fix the glitches.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Getting back to the topic of analysts, I think when Jonas speculates about a potential engineering fail, he is coming close to peddling uncertainty and doubt, just an F away from FUD.
Meanwhile, Tesla's pride now hangs on whether if it can pull off an F wing door. So if they back down now they lose face.
Honestly, I don't think it mattered much to customers or shareholder. There are so many other innovations and refinements that will make a much bigger impact on the world. Why should the reputation of Tesla hang on this? Vanity.
Meanwhile, Tesla's pride now hangs on whether if it can pull off an F wing door. So if they back down now they lose face.
Honestly, I don't think it mattered much to customers or shareholder. There are so many other innovations and refinements that will make a much bigger impact on the world. Why should the reputation of Tesla hang on this? Vanity.
But (same for the rearview cameras in the Model X that need updated laws etc.) at some point a decision has to be made because of lost revenue and slipping timelines.
It's not like Tesla has dozens of other car models on sale, the X slipping into late 2015 will likely delay the even more important Model 3 as well (I doubt the design and engineering is 100% separate on these two cars and all of the work can be done in parallel, that's not even the case for huge car companies).
It remains to be seen if analysts have done scenarios where the Model X slips intoearly 2016 for (meaningful) volume deliveries and the Model 3 back to 2018-2019.
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I don't think there's a bigger TSLA bull out there than Jonas among the well-known street analysts (besides maybe Andrea James).
No doubt. He has lost his edge.
And to TFTF I would love to see analyst model what 100k Model S and 100k Model X Before Gen 3 hits looks like on the balance sheet.
Add storage solutions that are hitting the market next year and we are in for exciting times.
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He is a Tesla bull but not really as much of a TSLA bull anymore since he thinks that all cars will shortly be autodriving and at that point no one will want to drive Tesla's anymore.
chickensevil
Active Member
Just wanted to point out that according to the company they don't need to make the Model X in order to be successful or to get the Model 3 on the road. Keeping in mind that originally the company was projecting only about 20k a year demand for the Model S and that has been steadily increasing to about 50k a year now, they have already gotten all the added demand they felt they needed from the X in the S. So I think they are inclined to focus on getting this right since I really don't think the industry is going to be as forgiving of the minor issues with their second model as they were with the Model S.
It should also be noted that with the Roadster (although they didn't make the whole car in house) they had so many issues with even just the first few hundred that it was almost to the point where they didn't actually have a marketable product. The Model S was 100x better executed and it still had its share of issues and glitches. While I expect there to be some issues with the X for the first few thousand, I am not going to complain about them pushing the product back just because I want the X release to be essentially 100x better than the S release, because they are going to need that more than anything to continue to be successful.
If the falcon wing doors are indeed problematic, and they end up not being in the production version of the car I, for one, will be very disappointed as both a shareholder and potential buyer. I surely won't be purchasing a Model X if it doesn't have falcon wing doors (I already have a Model S though)...
Morgan Stanley reports that Tesla Motors has reputed the conjecture about falcon wing doors being abandoned and confirmed that the Model X will have those doors: Tesla clarifies Morgan Stanley’s concerns on Model X doors | Tumblr Photoset - Yahoo Finance
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Inspired by the Haiku thread and our fine tradition of poetry here on the Investor's subforum:
Once Adam Jonas on Wall Street
was erranously tweaking his spreadsheat
his ill-researched note
was recieved as moat
and his opinions became obsolete
Good night to you sirs and madams.
Once Adam Jonas on Wall Street
was erranously tweaking his spreadsheat
his ill-researched note
was recieved as moat
and his opinions became obsolete
Good night to you sirs and madams.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yes, it come with an optional trailer hitch. Customers who want a tow vehicle will want a larger capacity battery. The will also want P and D. So I anticipate a P110D version will be popular for towing. Power outlets would be a nice touch. RVers, for example, will want to plug in their trailers.
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