Anecdotal evidence that people are not giving up reservations

[ℬête Noire]

LR model is 30% profitable for them.
I believe he said the SR model will be 18%.

Keeping in mind:
1) That's gross profit, so doesn't include sales staff, distribution logistics (shipping the car...although it also won't include the $1K destination fee, either), and so on.
2) It is still something of an estimate since a teardown uses industry average estimates for labour and such. They look at the pieces, figure out the process they are using, and estimate. If Tesla isn't executing as well as that, the margin is smaller, if they are executing better there's more margin.
3) The base $35K car is even more of an estimate since they are only guessing what parts will be used in place of the glass roof, premium stereo, and whatever else gets substituted in in place of the PUP.

The 18% is still fairly respectable though, that should be enough to break even at the least even if execution is a somewhat substandard.

 

[gene]

We now have 9 Model 3's in my neighborhood here in Virginia, I swear every week I see another one, they continue to out number the S's.

I have three of them living here in my driveway!

 

[Stirfelt]

I plan to request my $1k deposit back this next week. I can see no advantage to being a reservationist now. I have not abandoned Tesla. Just the deposit.

I'm waiting for the SR battery, non-performance, non-AWD. In addition .... I do not want a black or white interior.

I had put my "cherry" BMW Z3 on the market to make way for a new Model 3. I've taken it off the market and will continue to enjoy it for the foreseeable future. I'm beginning to suspect that Tesla will not make the vehicle I'm interested in.

 

[chronopc]

I plan to request my $1k deposit back this next week. I can see no advantage to being a reservationist now. I have not abandoned Tesla. Just the deposit.

I'm waiting for the SR battery, non-performance, non-AWD. In addition .... I do not want a black or white interior.

I had put my "cherry" BMW Z3 on the market to make way for a new Model 3. I've taken it off the market and will continue to enjoy it for the foreseeable future. I'm beginning to suspect that Tesla will not make the vehicle I'm interested in.

Being a reservation holder means you'll get first dibs at SR.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Anecodotes don't mean much, facts do ... Iots more counter examples that show people canceling the reservations (1 in 4 is the "official" estimate)

Why would you say 'stick to the facts', @Trevor B, and then spout a rumour? We all know Tesla does not advertise the cancellation rate - there is no "official estimate", quotes or no quotes - so everyone is speculating, with a big portion of bias either way - yours is an example of that.

Besides, a reservation is kind of moot in North America since you can order at any time now. If I needed $1,000 this summer, I could cancel, get the money, and order a Tesla in a few months. I don't think cancellation rate is large or significant... but that's just my opinion.

 

[gene]

I plan to request my $1k deposit back this next week. I can see no advantage to being a reservationist now. I have not abandoned Tesla. Just the deposit.

I'm waiting for the SR battery, non-performance, non-AWD. In addition .... I do not want a black or white interior.

I had put my "cherry" BMW Z3 on the market to make way for a new Model 3. I've taken it off the market and will continue to enjoy it for the foreseeable future. I'm beginning to suspect that Tesla will not make the vehicle I'm interested in.

We did the configuration of our 3rd Model 3 a week or two after the ordering was opened to all people. Yet, thanks to our day one, reservation, we received our Model 3 within 10 days of configuration. I know of others who have ordered once all was opened up and still will not receive their cars for awhile. Those with reservations do receive cars sooner than those without. You might get lucky and recive your short range Model 3 on December 31st, 2018 (if you retain your reservation) saving you $3,750!!!

 

[Trevor B]

Why would you say 'stick to the facts', @Trevor B, and then spout a rumour? We all know Tesla does not advertise the cancellation rate - there is no "official estimate", quotes or no quotes - so everyone is speculating, with a big portion of bias either way - yours is an example of that.

Besides, a reservation is kind of moot in North America since you can order at any time now. If I needed $1,000 this summer, I could cancel, get the money, and order a Tesla in a few months. I don't think cancellation rate is large or significant... but that's just my opinion.

That's why I used " "

You can argue about the semantics until the cows come home, but it's undeniable that many folks would rather cancel than wait for the elusive $35k version

 

[chronopc]

That's why I used " "

You can argue about the semantics until the cows come home, but it's undeniable that many folks would rather cancel than wait for the elusive $35k version

What do you consider many?

 

[ℬête Noire]

That's why I used " "

You can argue about the semantics until the cows come home, but it's undeniable that many folks would rather cancel than wait for the elusive $35k version

Why use it at all when the last actual official word (that post-dates it, no less) is that whatever reservation cancelations they did have were more than replaced by new ones?

Keeping in mind that, to whatever level of merit, the sense that there is of "reservations don't matter" that might be lingering in the US (and Canada), it's a step even further to assume such for the rest of the world.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Human nature would indicate that over 400,000 people might be waiting quietly with their reservations firmly intact.

If a few loudly proclaim that they are cancelling their orders and demanding their deposits back it will seem like it is much more of an issue than it really is.

Proverb says that bad news travels with a shout while good news travels on a whisper.

Bet a year from now Tesla will still be having people standing in line for their cars.

Tesla has doubled production over the past year, but still can't produce them fast enough to fill the demand.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

We did the configuration of our 3rd Model 3 a week or two after the ordering was opened to all people. Yet, thanks to our day one, reservation, we received our Model 3 within 10 days of configuration. I know of others who have ordered once all was opened up and still will not receive their cars for awhile. Those with reservations do receive cars sooner than those without. You might get lucky and recive your short range Model 3 on December 31st, 2018 (if you retain your reservation) saving you $3,750!!!

(if you take delivery 12/31/2018, you'll get the full $7500. It drops the next day)

 

[UKayla]

I doubt Tesla will make model 3. Expert auto manufacturers say Tesla will lose $3500.00 on each car if model 3 is build-Tesla has to make money badly

You mean all of these pictures are fake?!

 

[jkirkwood001]

That's why I used " "

You can argue about the semantics until the cows come home, but it's undeniable that many folks would rather cancel than wait for the elusive $35k version

It's absolutely deniable. I deny it. There.

OK, I'm being argumentative, it's some, but neither of us can point to any facts, right? Is it 1%? is it 5%? is it 25%? is it 50%? You made an assertion, @Trevor B, I wish you'd provide quantifiable evidence. And I could argue as strongly as you that there are more new orders than cancellations. Don't believe me? ...Oh wait, neither of us have any facts.

 

[M109Rider]

That's why I used " "

You can argue about the semantics until the cows come home, but it's undeniable that many folks would rather cancel than wait for the elusive $35k version

No disrespect to those (and I don’t think there are many) that cancel claiming they don’t feel there will be a $35k car, but I believe that’s just an excuse.
I suspect most cancel because they can’t afford the car or options they want.
Again, no disrespect to anyone who can’t afford the car.
I just think the blame is being shifted to Tesla instead.

 

[mspohr]

That's why I used " "

You can argue about the semantics until the cows come home, but it's undeniable that many folks would rather cancel than wait for the elusive $35k version

It's undeniable that wild baseless speculation is rampant.
"Officially" Bankwupt now!

 

[aronth5]

Model 3 is quickly becoming the next “Prius” in my area. Seeing more and more every day.

Have had my Model 3 for 4 months and have only seen 3 others in that time. 50% highway driving. Shows you the difference between the greater Boston area and California. Have had many people stop to look and almost all said it was the first Model 3 they have seen.

Did a 7 day charity bicycle ride thru northern New England last week and saw maybe 10 (S/X's) all week and I was looking for them.

 

[Lasairfion]

I don't think the cheaper short-range model is elusive. It's going to turn up, it just isn't going to happen quickly. Tesla is busy ramping production, sorting out profitability and streamlining production, all while expanding the factory capabilities. Now is definitely the time for selling the more expensive variants (and this can be seen by the sudden promotion of the All-wheel Drive and Performance models) and not the time for adding another less profitable variant.

The point is moot here though because there are none in Right Hand Drive yet anyway. By the time a RHD model is available, the standard short range will likely be out too; but if not: that's fine. One can choose to pay for a pricier variant or stick with your current vehicle until they do turn up.

 

[jkirkwood001]

I don't think the cheaper short-range model is elusive. It's going to turn up, it just isn't going to happen quickly. Tesla is busy ramping production, sorting out profitability and streamlining production, all while expanding the factory capabilities. Now is definitely the time for selling the more expensive variants (and this can be seen by the sudden promotion of the All-wheel Drive and Performance models) and not the time for adding another less profitable variant.

The point is moot here though because there are none in Right Hand Drive yet anyway. By the time a RHD model is available, the standard short range will likely be out too; but if not: that's fine. One can choose to pay for a pricier variant or stick with your current vehicle until they do turn up.

It'll be interesting to see if Tesla immediately releases lower-margin models abroad vs. duplicating the high-margin models first released in the US, then North America.

What did they do with S and X? Any steering towards more expensive configurations?

 

[Lasairfion]

It's an interesting thought certainly. It may seem a little unfair if they do release the lower-margin model straight away in the UK but the requirement for the capital they needed from the higher-margin models may by then be no longer an issue. A good continuous high level production of Model 3s over the next year could put Tesla in a nice secure position where they will feel comfortable in allowing Brits to go straight for a low-spec version.

As for the S and X over here, they're still very uncommon and to be honest I'm a bit late to the party with regards Tesla so I wasn't taking a huge amount of notice. I don't recall seeing any push for higher spec models over base models, but considering the price those vehicles start at anyway, perhaps there was no need.

The UK Tesla website does have the S/3 comparison on the Model 3 page though, so they do try and push you towards buying an S rather than reserving a 3. It was only a week or two back that Tesla even showed a Model 3 off to the public at Goodwood (and that was a US model).

 

[Revelate]

I think people are giving up the reservation. Now that they have dropped the reserve I wouldn’t sit on it. Delivery at this point is going to be 90% logistics. It might get you a few days ahead of other people that order the same day and are in the same area. The 35k config is going to be on the website available to all as soon as production starts. The reserves has nothing to do with sales all that matters is orders.

Based on the AWD deliveries (P and NP both), that's going to come back to bite them.

At least till now, nobody but Day 1 and *one* single Day 2 person on the Tesla forums in their waiting rooms has gotten a VIN yet. That's it, and it goes without saying that current deliveries have been line waiters.

I'm sitting way back in the line at 1/30/17 and unlike others I've had absolutely no change in my Tesla account... and probably won't for months at this rate.

The fact is Tesla absolutely appears to be honoring reservation date once they got the majority of the RWD stockpile delivered, and the difference between early SR reservation and no reservation at this point is likely going to be at least $3750 when talking rebate, and depending how many reservations converted to the various LR options it might even be the full $7500.

Just bad math, if you want a Tesla Model 3, hold the reservation.