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Another Model X crash, driver says autopilot was engaged

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..........Musk is openly challenging a journalist to check his statistics, which is not a very wise thing for a very public figure to do UNLESS he was confident in his assertion, right? So again, my question to you is why do you think Musk would be so foolhardy?

I think you have a certain opinion of the man, so why not state it outright? You appear to be making a claim about Musk. Are you?

Back to the numbers: others here have pointed out that even if Musk was exaggerating by an order of magnitude, any decrease in fatalities should be considered desirable. I'm supportive of that, but I still maintain that perhaps Musk and his team have digged deeper in the data than we have, and has some insight on those 1.25 million fatalities in order to make his claim. For what it's worth, I'm no statistician, nor safety expert, nor am I particularly motivated to wade any further into the WHO data for the sake of this meaningless internet dialogue.

Perhaps Musk has a nice, peer-reviewed study on the potential impact of Autopilot on global traffic fatalities lying about his office. He's obviously kindly invited to share it, but he doesn't seem to be willing to do so.

In fact, it appears as if his reasoning works as such: There's been one fatality with a Tesla after 130 million miles of using AP. The global average of traffic related fatalities is one fatality every 60 million miles. Therefore, if everyone had Autopilot, then global fatalities would be halved.
This is so crude, so wrong in its methodology, that it's unbelievable.
Perhaps we should apply this kind of reasoning to other problems as well? For example, people with Japanese passports have the highest live expectancy. Therefore, give everyone a Japanese passport and you've raised global live expectancy massively. Fabulous!

No high school student would get away with this kind of reasoning. Musk should be glad that for whatever reason statements by celebrity CEOs aren't as rigorously fact checked as those by politicians.
 
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That's all you can say? You've practiced securities law for 20 years and you can't provide us with a case (or law review article) the ratio of which supports your statement that:

Canuck - unless I missed the part of the discussion where eclectic took a nasty tone with you and you are now simply reacting by adopting the same tone in return (and I did go back and search the thread) then you're out of line with the way you're speaking. The substance of your argument is getting lost in the personal aggression. "That's all you can say?" is a statement which connotes inadequacy in your conversation partner. "You've practiced securities law for 20 years. . ." as well as what you said in your prior post implies professional incompetence.

Both statements are uncalled for, unbecoming of a professional - and mean. It's cruel to attempt to publicly humiliate someone else by implying incompetence.

Between the two of you, Eclectic seems to be the one who has enough self control to be able to dispassionately write what he thinks without getting personal about it.
 
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Canuck - unless I missed the part of the discussion where eclectic took a nasty tone with you and you are now simply reacting by adopting the same tone in return (and I did go back and search the thread) then you're out of line with the way you're speaking. The substance of your argument is getting lost in the personal aggression. "That's all you can say?" is a statement which connotes inadequacy in your conversation partner. "You've practiced securities law for 20 years. . ." as well as what you said in your prior post implies professional incompetence.

Both statements are uncalled for, unbecoming of a professional - and mean. It's cruel to attempt to publicly humiliate someone else by implying incompetence.

Between the two of you, Eclectic seems to be the one who has enough self control to be able to dispassionately write what he thinks without getting personal about it.

Point taken. I apology and I am sorry for my tone, Eclectic. Being a lawyer in an adversarial system for 1/4 of a century has an effect on a person but that's no excuse. I will try to tone it down in the future.
 
Airplane autopilot can land planes and otherwise avoid crashing into terrain without human input.

Airplane pilots read newspapers and watch DVDs while on "autopilot."

"Autopilot" is not the best term to use.

Uh, not really true. Airline AP's can't avoid terrain. They can only fully land if they are the most advanced type and if the airport is suitably equipped. A CAT1 system will generally only take you down to within 200' of the runway. There are CAT2 and CAT 2 systems but not all airliners are equipped with them. The term autopilot as used in aviation covers a wide range of capabilities form wing levelers to CAT3 systems. The pilot id expected to know the difference and the capabilities.
 
Nothing that Tesla has is uniques as far as driver assistance goes. When it comes to crash avoidance it is better to consider it crash mitigation and realize that it is aimed at frontal crashes i.e. where the driver in front slams on his brakes. This is a big area and the insurance industry is pushing to have all cars implement technology to reduce these crashes. For example read this article:

Front crash prevention cuts rear-enders

The key point is:

Systems with automatic braking reduce rear-end crashes by about 40 percent on average, while forward collision warning alone cuts them by 23 percent, the study found. The autobrake systems also greatly reduce injury crashes.

Note that the systems do not eliminate these crashes and this is restricted to frontal crashes only. Still even a 23% reduction is a big deal.
 
How Tesla Can Fix This Whole Mess

1. Rename it Co-Pilot
Co-Pilot = it's my HELPER
Autopilot = it's my REPLACEMENT

2. SHOW me where Autopilot fails, not where it works.
Where do we learn of Autopilot fails?
www.teslamotorsclub.com, YouTube.com and the media

Where SHOULD we learn where Autopilot fails?
www.teslamotors.com

(contrast the vagarities and generalities of Tesla's documentation vs the Distronic+ documentation. Mercedes may have a crappier system than Tesla but they are extremely clear about driving scenarios where it will fail.)
 
I'm a GA pilot and I concur - the use of the term "autopilot" by Tesla is, in my opinion, entirely consistent with the way GA pilots use autopilots. No pilot in his right mind would close his eyes and take a nap while his brand new $900,000 Cirrus SR22 single engine piston plane with the latest GA technology - flight director, latest autopilot - flew by itself.

Private/instrument rated single pilot cockpits use autopilots to ease the mental workload while we monitor systems. It may be the case that commercial pilots up in the flight levels (IE - very very high, above the weather systems) go to sleep while the copilot stays awake and listens to ATC.

But currently - "autopilot" as used by Tesla is a perfect metaphor. Even in the world of GA the very best autopilots still need a pilot to monitor them AND there are autopilots of varying degrees of capability flying around the skies - some do more than others. It isn't the case that Tesla needs Autopilot to become more advanced before it should be called "autopilot" - it's already far more intelligent and capable than many GA airplane autopilots.

Uh, not really true. Airline AP's can't avoid terrain. They can only fully land if they are the most advanced type and if the airport is suitably equipped. A CAT1 system will generally only take you down to within 200' of the runway. There are CAT2 and CAT 2 systems but not all airliners are equipped with them. The term autopilot as used in aviation covers a wide range of capabilities form wing levelers to CAT3 systems. The pilot id expected to know the difference and the capabilities.


Which part of what I said was not really true? Airline APs can land planes, therefore they "can avoid crashing into terrain." Yes I know the AP on a Cessna or SR22 won't land, but lots of other APs do. They just do. Yes CAT1 CAT2 blah blah detail. So what.

APs land planes. pilots read newspapers, watch DVDs and chat up flt attendants while on AP.
Using the phrase "Autopilot" probably won't invite legal trouble from FTC or NHTSA but it simply does suggest to many people more capabilities that the system has. You can say they are wrong or confused, or they are ignorant of CAT1 CAT2 etc., but it doesn't matter -- that is how it is interpreted.

Consumer education is a complicated process, and doesn't start and end with putting never read instructions in the manual. A big part is marketing and labeling and the simple things. Calling it something else that is more likely, as a simple empirical matter, to suggest a more accurate/limited functionality, and encourages/nudges appropriate attentiveness while using it, will probably result in less risk taking and dangerous behavior and ultimately less bad PR.
 
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You didn't ask where my comments came from. So I didn't provide them.

I have yet to see an HUD that is attractive as I have seen and experienced many. To me...they are distracting and unnecessary. The ones I have owned fogged up when the front windshield fogged up, they didn't work in direct sunlight and they were incredibly dim compared to dashboards. That's including the bmw HUD. Do I have a right to state my opinion? Answer = yes.

You certainly have a right to state your opinion. I can't speak to your comment about films from smoking obscuring the HUD, but I can categorically state that mine (a modern 5-series HUD) works very well, including in the sunlight. And I find it less distracting than glancing at a central screen and my standard multi-info display. So that's my (diametrically opposed) opinion. And I'm guessing two or three Air Force pilots might agree that HUDs aren't the worst thing ever.
 
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You certainly have a right to state your opinion. I can't speak to your comment about films from smoking obscuring the HUD, but I can categorically state that mine (a modern 5-series HUD) works very well, including in the sunlight. And I find it less distracting than glancing at a central screen and my standard multi-info display. So that's my (diametrically opposed) opinion. And I'm guessing two or three Air Force pilots might agree that HUDs aren't the worst thing ever.
There are no more HUD's going into new planes. Pilots were complaining about the same issue I'm stating. Now there are screens superimposed in helmets. Kind of like Google glass. I don't particularly care for google glass either. I've tried it. Its distracting.
 
You certainly have a right to state your opinion. I can't speak to your comment about films from smoking obscuring the HUD, but I can categorically state that mine (a modern 5-series HUD) works very well, including in the sunlight. And I find it less distracting than glancing at a central screen and my standard multi-info display. So that's my (diametrically opposed) opinion. And I'm guessing two or three Air Force pilots might agree that HUDs aren't the worst thing ever.
 
Which part of what I said was not really true? Airline APs can land planes, therefore they "can avoid crashing into terrain." Yes I know the AP on a Cessna or SR22 won't land, but lots of other APs do. They just do. Yes CAT1 CAT2 blah blah detail. So what.

APs land planes. pilots read newspapers, watch DVDs and chat up flt attendants while on AP.
Using the phrase "Autopilot" probably won't invite legal trouble from FTC or NHTSA but it simply does suggest to many people more capabilities that the system has. You can say they are wrong or confused, or they are ignorant of CAT1 CAT2 etc., but it doesn't matter -- that is how it is interpreted.

Consumer education is a complicated process, and doesn't start and end with putting never read instructions in the manual. A big part is marketing and labeling and the simple things. Calling it something else that is more likely, as a simple empirical matter, to suggest a more accurate/limited functionality, and encourages/nudges appropriate attentiveness while using it, will probably result in less risk taking and dangerous behavior and ultimately less bad PR.

First, you want to take the fact that some, not even most, devices of some type can perform an action to imply that the name implies that all devices can do that. I strongly disagree. It is like saying that some cars have sensors that will beep before you back into something there for calling something a car implies it has backup sensors.

Ok, so how about this. Some autopilots can land planes IF there is lots of expensive guidance equipment at the airport i.e. not on the plane. So, if a road is designed expressly for AP then the car can be guided. I think the Tesla AP does more than fine under that restriction. An AP will not prevent crashing into a mountain. So many comments on this thread veer towards the idea that if it can't prevent ALL crashes then it is useless. There is no AP on commercial aircraft that I know of that will prevent all crashes.

Being single I do like chatting up fit attendants if they are female and single. Advice taken.

As for your blah, blah, blah snippy comment I guess you don't want facts to get in the way.
 
Which part of what I said was not really true? Airline APs can land planes, therefore they "can avoid crashing into terrain." Yes I know the AP on a Cessna or SR22 won't land, but lots of other APs do. They just do. Yes CAT1 CAT2 blah blah detail. So what.

APs land planes. pilots read newspapers, watch DVDs and chat up flt attendants while on AP.
Using the phrase "Autopilot" probably won't invite legal trouble from FTC or NHTSA but it simply does suggest to many people more capabilities that the system has. You can say they are wrong or confused, or they are ignorant of CAT1 CAT2 etc., but it doesn't matter -- that is how it is interpreted.

Consumer education is a complicated process, and doesn't start and end with putting never read instructions in the manual. A big part is marketing and labeling and the simple things. Calling it something else that is more likely, as a simple empirical matter, to suggest a more accurate/limited functionality, and encourages/nudges appropriate attentiveness while using it, will probably result in less risk taking and dangerous behavior and ultimately less bad PR.

Concerning the term Autopilot, here is what Elon Musk had to say two days ago on Twitter.

Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk Jul 6
@disinformatico @Eddy_Jahn Tesla Tesla Autopilot is named after aircraft autopilot, as it is always expected that a pilot must stay alert.

Keep in mind Musk holds Instrument - Multi-Engine Land Airplane ratings. As a thirty year ATP, I concur with his definition. Why don't we just keep the logical name and continue educating the public.
 
Concerning the term Autopilot, here is what Elon Musk had to say two days ago on Twitter.

Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk Jul 6
@disinformatico @Eddy_Jahn Tesla Tesla Autopilot is named after aircraft autopilot, as it is always expected that a pilot must stay alert.

Keep in mind Musk holds Instrument - Multi-Engine Land Airplane ratings. As a thirty year ATP, I concur with his definition. Why don't we just keep the logical name and continue educating the public.

The big difference is aircraft autopilot systems allow the pilot to remove his/her hands.

Tesla AutoPilot "requires" the driver to "always" have his/her hands on the steering wheel.

Why name a system that requires the operator to always keep their hands on the wheel after a system that's most basic attribute is being able to remove your hands?
 
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There are no more HUD's going into new planes. Pilots were complaining about the same issue I'm stating. Now there are screens superimposed in helmets. Kind of like Google glass. I don't particularly care for google glass either. I've tried it. Its distracting.

I honestly wonder where you get your facts. Boeing's most advanced plane, the 787, has dual HUDs standard:

Innovative 787 Flight Deck Designed for Efficiency, Comfort, and Commonality

And Airbus is also outfitting A340s and A380s with them now. And they describe the advantages here:

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/med...ons/FAST_magazine/fast46-7-headup-display.pdf

It's clear you don't like them, but I think plenty of others see their advantages.
 
First, you want to take the fact that some, not even most, devices of some type can perform an action to imply that the name implies that all devices can do that. I strongly disagree. It is like saying that some cars have sensors that will beep before you back into something there for calling something a car implies it has backup sensors.

Ok, so how about this. Some autopilots can land planes IF there is lots of expensive guidance equipment at the airport i.e. not on the plane. So, if a road is designed expressly for AP then the car can be guided. I think the Tesla AP does more than fine under that restriction. An AP will not prevent crashing into a mountain. So many comments on this thread veer towards the idea that if it can't prevent ALL crashes then it is useless. There is no AP on commercial aircraft that I know of that will prevent all crashes.

Being single I do like chatting up fit attendants if they are female and single. Advice taken.

As for your blah, blah, blah snippy comment I guess you don't want facts to get in the way.

I'm saying the details about true airplane technology doesn't matter! blah blah just means it doesn't matter. Don't take it as snippy.

Whether using the term "Autopilot" is a good or bad thing is just about what potential (500k of them!) Tesla buyers think the term means. Not what you or other pilots think it means. (including, by the way, even the pilots who read newspapers and watch DVDs while their plane is on AP). It doesn't matter what how deeply you dig into the details of how airline AP really truly works. They dont know and don't care. In fact the deeper you dig the farther you are from the reality of how people interpret the term.
 
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Which part of what I said was not really true? Airline APs can land planes
[etc]

The part where you said "Airplane autopilot can land planes and otherwise avoid crashing into terrain without human input", without using the qualifying adjective "Airline". Your comment as written applies to all airplanes, and as such is not true.

Edit to add: I see your reply #297 where you essentially say you don't care it isn't true, that wasn't your point. OK. But it isn't true.

How Tesla Can Fix This Whole Mess

1. Rename it Co-Pilot
Co-Pilot = it's my HELPER
Autopilot = it's my REPLACEMENT

I admire but do not share your optimism that by changing their branding Tesla can bring confused reporters, not to mention Tesla-haters, to rationality. (See the subthread above for why Autopilot is technically accurate, by the way, which is not to say it is or isn't good branding.)

Edit to add: The term co-pilot has independently been proposed repeatedly. One of the common replies is that in the aviation world you really can expect the co-pilot to be able to fly the plane independently so it's OK to take a nap. Which would make the term worse, not better. If you want to avoid "giving people the wrong idea" then choose some milquetoast but carefully accurate branding like "Driver Assistance" instead of relying on a metaphor, which will always trip you up eventually.

I also wonder why there's so much carping about the name "Autopilot" but virtually nobody is talking about the "Beta" designation. I find it quite odd that the feature is "beta" but has no disclosed criteria for when or how it will get out of beta. Not to mention they charge full retail for it (not unheard-of for a beta in these degenerate times, of course). AFAICT they're using "beta" to mean "hey be careful", which is not really a very productive use of the terminology -- it's red meat to haters and they could caution drivers just as effectively (or ineffectively) with clear documentation, on-screen disclaimers, and so on.
 
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Take it easy, I'm not attacking you or your qualifications (I don't even know what your expertise on this is). The reason why I brought up his credentials was precisely because he's an expert in the field (and yes U.S. Courts recognize credentialed subject matter expertise in testimony so what he says has weight). More importantly his opinion exactly mapped to my own professional experience in dealing with SEC filings. Lawyers are the ones who certify the verbiage and yes they are sometimes overly cautious and inclusive w/r/t materiality but that's because there are serious ramifications for doing otherwise and they have a fiduciary responsibility in this regard. That is a good thing.
I didn't prove your point by saying I wouldn't have dumped my TSLA shares even if this had been disclosed because I got in at $21 so no amount of bad news would cause me to do that. Others have different circumstances and have a right to know about a material fact. Ultimately it's up to others to decide on this.

Thank you for helping to clarify this. The best example I can give of why materiality isn't determined by the immediate stock market reaction to the disclosure of the omitted fact would be this...

Let's say that in a few months, the government completes its investigation into autopilot and orders Tesla to either hobble AP or utterly eliminate it (and either disable it on existing vehicles or buy back those vehicles). That obviously is going to have a VERY significant impact on Tesla's business and financial condition, and future outlook.

Right now, some people think that there is a good chance that the government will do something like this. Many people don't have such concerns. If you were one of those people with the concern, though, and you bought the stock in the May 18 offering,
Canuck - unless I missed the part of the discussion where eclectic took a nasty tone with you and you are now simply reacting by adopting the same tone in return (and I did go back and search the thread) then you're out of line with the way you're speaking. The substance of your argument is getting lost in the personal aggression. "That's all you can say?" is a statement which connotes inadequacy in your conversation partner. "You've practiced securities law for 20 years. . ." as well as what you said in your prior post implies professional incompetence.

Both statements are uncalled for, unbecoming of a professional - and mean. It's cruel to attempt to publicly humiliate someone else by implying incompetence.

Between the two of you, Eclectic seems to be the one who has enough self control to be able to dispassionately write what he thinks without getting personal about it.

I have no beef with Canuck. I believe that he or she missed my original post(s) where I set out the definition of materiality and instead has focused on a thing that I presented as EVIDENCE of materiality. Nowhere did I say that people talking about a fact is the definition of materiality. I put the Basic v. Levinson definition of materiality into layman's term in my original post(s).

This is for the edification of people interested in understanding the topic, rather than nitpicking...once you define a test, you have to show what facts can prove that the test has been met. And that's where I brought up the fact that there is so much public discussion of the event. To wit:

"The fact that so many people are talking about this, and that the government and others are talking about the need to look into more regulations for autonomous cars, and the uncertainty of how that may affect Tesla's sales, profits, market outlook, etc., all indicate that this is material information."

Had Canuck read what I wrote, carefully, he'd see that I wrote that the fact stated indicates that the test has been met

10b-5 cases are VERY fact and circumstance specific. The fact that the market moved a certain way is NEVER dispositive, because there a thousands of factors that move markets at any particular moment. It may be a piece of evidence, but it's very weak. However, if you're asking a jury whether something should be deemed material, and you show them facts that the investment community was heatedly discussing the fact that was not disclosed in a timely manner, that weighs heavily towards showing that it was a material fact.

It has nothing to do with whether there were damages suffered. That's a separate element of a 10b-5 claim. It may well be that no one suffered a damage. But first you must establish materiality of the omitted information, and I'm fairly confident that this was material information. The remedy may be that the SEC censures Tesla, disqualifies them from using certain (easier) filing techniques or requires new, more detailed disclosure in their risk factors.

And I think that is where Canuck got crossed up with my statements. He/she may have construed my discussion of materiality with the question of whether damages exist. I have not said a thing about the damages element of the claim.