AP 2.0 So much negativity!

[vip gts]

What's the point of full autonomy in a performance model? Not sure it will decide to go 0-60 in 2.5 seconds very often

I also recently traded for a p100d. I knew at some point AP 2 was coming. I bight the car to drive so I really don't mind missing out.
Using autopilot in my car makes it identical to the cheapest models and really is a waste of the extra 70 grand we paid.
I only use it on long boring trips.

 

[supratachophobia]

I think what you're seeing is people not buying into the hype anymore based on past experience.

Exactly. It took 3 years to get a "shuffle" button on the media player, 2 years to get backup lines on the rear camera, and we still don't have POI on NAV or even a working media player for that matter. I get it that Tesla wants to pioneer autonomous driving. But let's take care of the little loose ends first so that your existing owner base doesn't start to become disenchanted. Because that's what's happening with us not being into the hype anymore.

 

[ohmman]

Exactly. It took 3 years to get a "shuffle" button on the media player, 2 years to get backup lines on the rear camera, and we still don't have POI on NAV or even a working media player for that matter. I get it that Tesla wants to pioneer autonomous driving. But let's take care of the little loose ends first so that your existing owner base doesn't start to become disenchanted. Because that's what's happening with us not being into the hype anymore.

I'd gladly forfeit POI and waypoints for falcon wing doors that don't crack and pop when they open, or ones that don't make contact with my surroundings.

 

[supratachophobia]

I'd gladly forfeit POI and waypoints for falcon wing doors that don't crack and pop when they open, or ones that don't make contact with my surroundings.

I guess we all have our priorities, so I certainly understand that your issues are your priority. My frustration comes from the fact that the infotainment shortcomings are 99% software based. Therefore they *can* be fixed, and *could* be fixed rather quickly at that. The FWD issues might be an hardware engineering issue and if that's the case, I would be unpleasantly resigned on that one. But I would still expect Tesla to fix it with re-engineered doohickeys or something.

So it looks like both hardware and software resources were sacrificed on the AP alter so that both our issues go unresolved.

 

[Canuck]

I think what you're seeing is people not buying into the hype anymore based on past experience.

Past experience: Long range EV that goes 0-60 in 2.7 seconds, superchargers for long distance travel, best AP of any automaker and a US automaker outselling Mercedes, BMW, Audi, And Porsche In US.

Sorry it took longer than expected for some, but calling it hype is ridiculous. Not too many years ago, posting the above as a reality would be called ludicrous (pun intended) but Tesla made it a reality.

If that's hype, please keep it coming!

 

[RocketGoBoom]

Hype leads to lawsuits and trouble for the company. I have no problem with them working on autonomous driving. People seem to want it, so Tesla should work on it. But I do have a problem with the expectations they are leading people into. People who speak much as you do may well be suing Tesla in a few years when things don't go as swiftly and seamlessly as they expected.

Tesla has promised a lot of amazing features in writing with full AP2.
The way it is described now on the ordering webpage, it will be full blown 100% auto pilot capable and even a Tesla sharing network to make revenue off of your car.

If they are charging $3,000 extra for all of those features and later we find out it actually requires more hardware in AP 3.0 to make it all work .... some pissed of lawyer / Tesla AP 2.0 owner is going to have a field day in court with a class action lawsuit.

Tesla cannot make all of those written claims on their ordering page, charge $3,000 extra for the option of FSDC, then not deliver on it.

If it turns out that $3,000 doesn't get you everything they are claiming, then I suspect a $3,000 refund will be easy to get.
We still have consumer protection laws in the USA.

 

[supratachophobia]

Past experience: Long range EV that goes 0-60 in 2.7 seconds, superchargers for long distance travel, best AP of any automaker and a US automaker outselling Mercedes, BMW, Audi, And Porsche In US.

Sorry it took longer than expected for some, but calling it hype is ridiculous. Not too many years ago, posting the above as a reality would be called ludicrous (pun intended) but Tesla made it a reality.

If that's hype, please keep it coming!

From the performance aspect, you are right, Tesla deserves all the credit for that. But coming from using the car 3hrs a day, the interface is severely lacking. There is no hype to be found in the latter.

 

[trils0n]

and we still don't have POI on NAV

I thought we've had POI since day 1. Can search for anything in Nav, tacos, gas stations, restaurants, Starbucks, and the car will show a list and map with dozens of pins just like a Google search (IIRC Nav uses google search for POI, so it is much more accurate, up to date and flexible than any built in (read: out of date) POI database I've used). Or am I misunderstanding what points of interest are?

 

[David_Cary]

Why should we have negativity? Because Elon has again promised something he can't deliver. And he is charging a lot of money for it.

Don't get me wrong, $8k is a bargain for level 5 autonomy. But it is a lot for promised level 5 that will never materialize. I've always thought AP was important and worth it for the overall mission. I've been okay without waypoints for nav. The media interface is fine. But I'm starting to think that all of this is becoming a distraction. I mean, I think full autonomy is a paradigm shift that most people haven't really imagined. More than smartphones, more than internet. A truly huge disruptive force (in the US at least).

But it isn't going to happen with these cameras and 40 times the processing power. Of course, what do I know? But I do extrapolate from 1.0 and I think it is more like 1000 times the processing power. Ultrasonic sensors? - the best we can hope for is decent blind spot monitoring and hopefully not driving under trailers. Those things move way too slowly to be helpful. I'm glad they will have more range and resolution, but how about speed?

Just listen to this sentence "...we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver." I am in the top 1% of autonomy believers and proponents. But you do no get regulatory approval for anything at twice as good as average driver. 10 times would be the minimum. That simple statement of irrational exuberance shows how out of touch Tesla (Elon) is looking.

I'll eat my shirt of course (hemp cut in small pieces I would think). Be happy to. The first level 5 will cost $100k extra and is 5 years away. Getting down to plebs like us is 5 more years away - defined at $10k extra.

 

[Just a Reader]

Hype leads to lawsuits and trouble for the company. I have no problem with them working on autonomous driving. People seem to want it, so Tesla should work on it. But I do have a problem with the expectations they are leading people into. People who speak much as you do may well be suing Tesla in a few years when things don't go as swiftly and seamlessly as they expected. If the backlash gets too great, it could doom the company when previously excited people start grabbing their pitchforks and torches. People are fickle and they can turn on you when overly ambitious expectations aren't met.

Exactly.

Right now we are still seeing Teslas on AP drift into the lanes of other vehicles, smash into stationary cars on the road or even hit parked cars when auto-parking. Yet we are supposed to believe that AP will progress so fast as to allow for full autonomy within such a short period?

Even if we assume that all that is being promised by Musk will be achievable within the promised time-frame, then I would still be exceedingly surprised if the legal and regulatory framework were ready for fully autonomous cars within the next years. Some people here seem to ignore that they don't have exclusive use of the roads. Teslas share the roads with the general public and therefore fully autonomous cars are everyone's business, not just the business of Tesla owners. If you believe that Tesla got negative press as regards AP now, then wait for what will happen when the first Tesla in fully autonomous mode will cause a fatal accident with the victims not being the Tesla "driver".
Does Musk realize that he or members of Tesla's engineering team may even face criminal charges if prosecutors decide that a fatal accident was caused by software that is considered as being defective or that didn't have the correct regulatory approval?

 

[msnow]

Past experience: Long range EV that goes 0-60 in 2.7 seconds, superchargers for long distance travel, best AP of any automaker and a US automaker outselling Mercedes, BMW, Audi, And Porsche In US.

Sorry it took longer than expected for some, but calling it hype is ridiculous. Not too many years ago, posting the above as a reality would be called ludicrous (pun intended) but Tesla made it a reality.

If that's hype, please keep it coming!

Past: P90DL's will do 10.9 second quarter miles (never achieved by anyone except Motor Trend). Months later after thousands of cars are sold Tesla changes that statement on their website. Hype.
Past: Tesla's HP claim for "P" car's debunked and months later they change their website to reflect a new interpretation. Hype.
Past: Each version post 6.2 promises Nav and Media Player fixes. Hype (or just lack of prioritization or lack of technical knowledge).
Current Hype: Level 4 and 5 autonomy and Elon says "by the end of 2017 cars will be able to drive itself from Los Angeles to New York drop off the "driver" in Times Square and then go park itself in a garage" (Car and Driver). All of this with automatic charging ("the driver will never have to get out of the car"). That's some major hype right there but if you believe it I have a bridge to sell you. Also he has the "subject to regularly approval" caveat which could put this out several years at best. Hype.
Current Hype: Passengers to Mars by 2024. Great optimistic thinking but hype nonetheless.

I could go on and on but despite his honest and self deprecating demeanor Elon is Salesman in Chief and it took a lot of us a while to catch on. I love his optimistic goals but he wants people to pay now for something they may get later and delivery time is vague or exaggerated. So hardly ridiculous.

 

[msnow]

I'd gladly forfeit POI and waypoints for falcon wing doors that don't crack and pop when they open, or ones that don't make contact with my surroundings.

I know it's a little off topic but they haven't solved the FWD issues yet?

 

[Chopr147]

Hype is Tesla's way. The engineers must roll their eyes every time Elon promises some impossible goal by an impossible date. Tesla has done some amazing things we all thought not possible in such a short time. And pushing workers harder and harder has some merit but we all know these dates are never met. I don't mean to knock Tesla because despite all this they are so far ahead of all other car companies. Not too long ago Audi and Volvo were talking about "advanced" autonomy better than anything Tesla has on the road. But "on the road" is the key words. Mercedes and Lexus , the 2 "lane assist" cars I have driven are like a drunken driver at 4:00 A.M. that has been drinking since happy hour.

IDK how this turned into an ageism dispute but hey! I'm 52 and solidly in the Tesla demographic. calisnow at 39 driving a Tesla: good for you. At 39 I was raising a family, making good money but could not have afforded one then. Same as a high percentage of Tesla owners enjoying the ride. Man, chin up dude the best is yet to come

 

[ecarfan]

Why should we have negativity? Because Elon has again promised something he can't deliver. And he is charging a lot of money for it... But it isn't going to happen with these cameras and 40 times the processing power. Of course, what do I know?

Please post your professional qualifications relating to automotive engineering, autonomous vehicle design, and neural net processing software so that I can evaluate your opinion on whether or not Tesla can achieve Level 5 autonomy with the newly released AP hardware suite. Then I can decide how much weight to give to your opinion vs. the announced objective of Elon and the engineering team at Tesla.

Right now we are still seeing Teslas on AP drift into the lanes of other vehicles, smash into stationary cars on the road or even hit parked cars when auto-parking. Yet we are supposed to believe that AP will progress so fast as to allow for full autonomy within such a short period?

I could ask you the same thing I asked @David_Cary. You and David are of course welcome to your opinions as to the likelihood of Tesla achieving Level 5 autonomy in the timeframe Elon has stated. But I suggest that you both consider carefully the fact that Tesla will be using the accumulated data of tens of thousands of vehicles driving millions and millions of miles in a relatively short timeframe ("Fleet Learning") to achieve its objective. No other automotive manufacturer or autonomous driving system company (such as Google) have anything like that capability.

I am not an automotive engineer, autonomous vehicle expert, or neural net software coder. So I do not make hard and fast judgements about those areas of knowledge. I have closely observed Tesla Motors for about four years now. I have seen the company achieve amazing things and I have seen it fall short on some features and certainly fail to meet announced timeframes, but I have often seen it achieve objectives just later than it anticipated it would. That is the nature of things when tackling very hard engineering challenges.

I do think it rather ballsy that Tesla is asking people to pay $3K now for "Full Self Driving Capability" while clearly stating when you receive your car that capability will not be available, it will be available at some unspecified point in the future (unspecified in official company documentation or even by Elon). I don't think that Tesla is expecting a high percentage of buyers to pay for that option right now. I think it is Elon's way of saying "We are absolutely going to achieve this capability in the near future using the sensor suite we are building into every car right now". It's a statement of confidence, not a statement that Full Self Driving will be functional in a few months.

Agree or disagree with Elon, but don't act like an expert and state with certainty that it can't be done unless you are in fact an expert in the field.

 

[msnow]

Hype is Tesla's way. The engineers must roll their eyes every time Elon promises some impossible goal by an impossible date. Tesla has done some amazing things we all thought not possible in such a short time. And pushing workers harder and harder has some merit but we all know these dates are never met. I don't mean to knock Tesla because despite all this they are so far ahead of all other car companies. Not too long ago Audi and Volvo were talking about "advanced" autonomy better than anything Tesla has on the road. But "on the road" is the key words. Mercedes and Lexus , the 2 "lane assist" cars I have driven are like a drunken driver at 4:00 A.M. that has been drinking since happy hour.

IDK how this turned into an ageism dispute but hey! I'm 52 and solidly in the Tesla demographic. calisnow at 39 driving a Tesla: good for you. At 39 I was raising a family, making good money but could not have afforded one then. Same as a high percentage of Tesla owners enjoying the ride. Man, chin up dude the best is yet to come

Agree. I think it's pretty sad if you think your life is on the downhill when you approach 40 as he does. Like you my income went up significantly, as did my travel, enjoyment, expertise and knowledge in my field after 40. I sit on a couple of Boards now and while I'm a step or two slower playing tennis than when I was 20 I'm a much better player now. To me, living healthy is life changing, establishing relationships is life changing, buying a house, raising your kids all life changing events. Putting AutoPilot in that category, I mean really?

 

[msnow]

Please post your professional qualifications relating to automotive engineering, autonomous vehicle design, and neural net processing software so that I can evaluate your opinion on whether or not Tesla can achieve Level 5 autonomy with the newly released AP hardware suite. Then I can decide how much weight to give to your opinion vs. the announced objective of Elon and the engineering team at Tesla.

I could ask you the same thing I asked @David_Cary. You and David are of course welcome to your opinions as to the likelihood of Tesla achieving Level 5 autonomy in the timeframe Elon has stated. But I suggest that you both consider carefully the fact that Tesla will be using the accumulated data of tens of thousands of vehicles driving millions and millions of miles in a relatively short timeframe ("Fleet Learning") to achieve its objective. No other automotive manufacturer or autonomous driving system company (such as Google) have anything like that capability.

You don't need a CV to judge if someone states a "big hairy goal" as an actual deliverable by a certain time. Goals are good hype is hype but if you're charging money for the big hairy goal that may or may not happen in the promised timeframe then it becomes problematic particularly for a public company that consistently misses its goals and commitments. I love my car as much as anyone but I no longer put Elon on a pedestal because of the propensity to exaggerate.

 

[David_Cary]

Ok sure - I am not an automotive engineer.

But we are 2 years from a similar promise - driving coast to coast. Oops the current hardware is not enough. We have an AP that still requires hands on and can't hold a lane any better than it did a year ago - 100s of million of miles later. So I an not an engineer but an historian (not really but you get the point). The collective forum opinion (not automotive engineers) always knew the sensor suite was inadequate.

I think it is pretty easy to look at all the inputs required for full autonomy and realize how big of a task it is. And the hyperbole. I mean drop you off at Times Square and then go find and pay for parking? Right.

While Tesla has done some impressive things, remember we are talking about relatively simple and old tech for most of it. Existing battery tech. I mean I love my car but come on, SpaceX is more impressive. A compelling EV took mostly the will. An autonomous car is not built on hype. Supercharging is a great plan - but high tech it is not. DC charging - not hard.

 

[EinSV]

While Tesla has done some impressive things, remember we are talking about relatively simple and old tech for most of it. Existing battery tech. I mean I love my car but come on, SpaceX is more impressive. A compelling EV took mostly the will. An autonomous car is not built on hype. Supercharging is a great plan - but high tech it is not. DC charging - not hard.

Top-selling large premium sedan in the U.S. by a factor of two or more (beating Mercedes, BMW, Audi) quickest production vehicle in the world, more efficient than a Prius, extensive Supercharger network, 300 plus miles of range, best autonomous driving capability in the business, huge lead on battery technology and costs, on target to have the largest battery production in the world by a large margin, first new US car company since 1925 to survive, etc. Most of which has been accomplished in the last four years, since the Model S was introduced.

Meh. Anybody could have done that if they wanted to.

Which would be a little better argument if virtually everyone in the business had not predicted exactly the opposite -- that Tesla would fail. Ironically, many of the same people who say they will fail with autonomy. They were wrong then. I believe they will be wrong now.

 

[ohmman]

I know it's a little off topic but they haven't solved the FWD issues yet?

I think new builds are fine. Q1 deliveries are a mixed bag. Mine's been at the Service Center for an aggregate of over 6 weeks, and comes back with similar problems. My falcon wing doors sound like what @calisnow thinks 50 year olds' knees sound like.

 

[msnow]

Top-selling large premium sedan in the U.S. by a factor of two or more (beating Mercedes, BMW, Audi) quickest production vehicle in the world, more efficient than a Prius, extensive Supercharger network, 300 plus miles of range, best autonomous driving capability in the business, huge lead on battery technology and costs, on target to have the largest battery production in the world by a large margin, first new US car company since 1925 to survive, etc. Most of which has been accomplished in the last four years, since the Model S was introduced.

Meh. Anybody could have done that if they wanted to.

Which would be a little better argument if virtually everyone in the business had not predicted exactly the opposite -- that Tesla would fail. Ironically, many of the same people who say they will fail with autonomy. They were wrong then. I believe they will be wrong now.

I think this is mostly right so why exaggerate when the truth is so good? Maybe the hype is to sell cars or get press coverage.