Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

[PeterK]

New LA Times "Column" slant piece by Michael Hiltzik, which uses 10-Q boilerplate risk language to try to say Tesla won't deliver the Model 3. Lots of references to "hype", "breathless claims", and "dose of reality".

My favorite: "Tesla's risk disclosures need to be taken seriously because they reflect the company's manufacturing experience. Its earlier luxury models, the Model S and Model X, suffered long production delays and have been beleaguered by recalls."

Beleaguered by recalls? Five in its history, mostly voluntary and none significant.

Tesla throws cold water on its own hype by admitting huge risks in building the Model 3

 

[Johan]

 

[CButterK]

Antw@t Walrus(Anton Wahlman) just posted a new article on Reeking Manure(seeking Alpha) titled, Tesla Model X: Why Didn't all deposits convert? I'm not gonna post link, as it's worthless as always, but his point is, Tesla will have to refund bunch of money to reservation holders, as they decide to buy new SUV's coming out from Jag & Mazda instead of Model X. Neither are anything out of ordinary... Just a new iteration of the same old formula...

Anyway, Antw@t is the same "Credible Automotive analyst" that said other premium brand offerings will eat Model S for lunch, as he is getting wined & dined, paid to travel, and some cases "gifted" and compensated by the "other" auto makers... Hmm...

 

[winfield100]

ok, no decimal points dropped. author assumes 20cents/kWh, which sure seems high to me. I have about given up on SA

the 20cents or higher, up to 80 cents/kWh seems quite high. any ideas on actual numbers...

 

[RiverBrick]

the 20cents or higher, up to 80 cents/kWh seems quite high. any ideas on actual numbers...

Just wait for the next hit piece on Solar City. Then they'll tell you how you never get your investment back on solar panels because kWh of five-cent per kWh rates. When you average 0.05$ and 0.20$ you are close to ladt month's average:

EIA - Electricity Data

 

[JRP3]

Ummm......

 

[Johan]

Ummm......

Australasian Skeptics Forum • View topic - Steven Greer / Disclosure Project / Sirius (the movie)

 

[winfield100]

nice article by Randy Carlson on Seeking Alpha. one of few authors there with good facts and figures

 

[JRP3]

I'm afraid Randy engaged in some fiction with his ideas about air cooled batteries and a 44kWh pack.

 

[winfield100]

I'm afraid Randy engaged in some fiction with his ideas about air cooled batteries and a 44kWh pack.

i am unsure about the wisdom of air cooled vs other method. yes. his articles are fairly decent and believable from an engineers point of view. 44kWh seems optimistic for 200 miles also. I also like the rationale for 20700 cylindrical vs prismatics for heat control.

 

[Hogfighter]

+1. I take his clear and direct comment at the start the call at face value. A "build plan" could be a plan to get to a rate, with "total unit" referring to S, X and 3, not 2018.

'total unit build plan' is a very Greenspan-esque phrase. It's basically saying, 'if all goes perfectly, we in theory could produce 500,000 cars in 2018. Our plan is to have the capacity to build 500,000 cars in 2018. However we are giving ourselves wiggle room in the highly probable event that we cannot build 500,000 cars in 2018, that we can say that we never said we would build that many cars.'

Ditto with Elon's statement on the CC.

 

[Electroman]

I'm afraid Randy engaged in some fiction with his ideas about air cooled batteries and a 44kWh pack.

I agree. No way you can go 200+ with anything less than 55kWh.

A bit skeptical on the air cooled theory also. Less effective than liquid cooled and takes more volume for the same pack energy density, although on the plus side the pack is a bit lighter.

 

[PeterK]

'total unit build plan' is a very Greenspan-esque phrase. It's basically saying, 'if all goes perfectly, we in theory could produce 500,000 cars in 2018. Our plan is to have the capacity to build 500,000 cars in 2018. However we are giving ourselves wiggle room in the highly probable event that we cannot build 500,000 cars in 2018, that we can say that we never said we would build that many cars.'

Ditto with Elon's statement on the CC.

Elon is focused on the ramp-up line, which he's discussed multiple times re the X and S, eg about hitting the 1000/week output level. On the call he was definitely committing to get to the 500,000 per year rate in 2018, not to produce 500,000 cars that year.

 

[electracity]

nice article by Randy Carlson on Seeking Alpha. one of few authors there with good facts and figures

I think the most interesting aspect of that piece is Tesla building driver controls into the M3 that will make traditional auto manufacturers uncomfortable. Tesla's goal here is likely to establish base technologies that will work well with the car driving more and more on autopilot.

The ideal is for the driver to sit back and understand what autopilot is doing by simply looking out the windshield.

So a video-game like HUD , the steering wheel becomes a game controller, and the LCD is the tablet.

Putting all the mechanical buttons in the steering wheel makes final manufacturing easy. The goal is probably making all the dash components are very modular.

 

[dc_h]

I thought this ironic in light of the LA Times TSLA 10Q review.
Oaktree Capital Throws Cold Water On Tribune Publishing's Turnaround Plan
 Forbes - 14h ago
Oaktree Capital Throws Cold Water On Tribune Publishing's Turnaround Plan

 

[winfield100]

i dont know where to ask, and google is not my friend apparently, but how many miles did Tesla's drive in the last 12 months? there is a discussion about ~90gigawatts used in super chargers last 12 months or so appx, meaning (according to author) that ~25% of miles are super charger. 90 gigawatts is 90 million kilowatts or roughly 270-300 million miles, @3m/kWh. are these numbers reasonable? where have i dropped a decimal or 3?

 

[Gerardf]

Some shorts (the usuall ones on SA and mark spiegel) are spreading news that non-gaap reporting is no longer allowed. And how this will make Tesla numbers look much worse.
There references they give are not un-convincing..


As far as I can see it is more strickt, but not forbidden
New SEC Guidance on Non-GAAP Financial Measures Will Require Changes to Many Non-GAAP Presentations | JD Supra

Another FUD story pushed by the well known shorties ?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Good conversation between Bloomberg's Matt Levine (one of the best financial journalists around) and Cory Johnson about the timing of Goldman's upgrade. Cory is convinced there is collusion between the analysts and investment bankers, Levine responds with a perfectly reasonable argument, Cory isn't convinced, as usual.

The actual conversation starts at 2:07.

 

[CButterK]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/397...96527&utoken=89357ed5bea4a336fca90ddff425303a

Not the usual short suspect, but still the same BS about tsla going to $0 eventually. Reminds me of Antw@t W. and Polo Santo...

TL;DR : b!tch, moan, grumble, cult stock, company sucks but price keep going up, then he admits he will cover his short position now, and wait to short to $0 later... Well, I'm sure he will be even more miserable as he donates more money to us longs at $250, $300, $400, etc. cause you know, Tesla will go bankrupt sooner than later, in his delusional mind...

 

[Gerasimental]

i dont know where to ask, and google is not my friend apparently, but how many miles did Tesla's drive in the last 12 months? there is a discussion about ~90gigawatts used in super chargers last 12 months or so appx, meaning (according to author) that ~25% of miles are super charger. 90 gigawatts is 90 million kilowatts or roughly 270-300 million miles, @3m/kWh. are these numbers reasonable? where have i dropped a decimal or 3?

very quick back of the envelope maths:

Assume 90k Teslas on the road on average over the past 12 months.
Assume average Distance driven: 10k miles.

Total distance covered: 900million miles.

We know that the billionth cumulative mile was driven last June, 11 months ago, so roughly doubling that in a year seems very plausible to me.

(I'm not sure this is the correct thread for this though?)