I was wrong. It is now obvious that Model 3s will arrive in Q3 too. Let me update what I said:
Q1 2022: There were 4,417 Model 3 registrations in Australia in Q1 2022 according to
this article.
Q2 2022: I estimate 250 Model 3 registrations in Q2. These are leftovers from Q1, not new arrivals.
Q3 and Q4 2022: I estimate 4,700 Model 3 and 6,700 Model Y registrations in Australia in Q3 and then the same in Q4,
By the way, some specs of MIC Model 3 and Y can be found in this document:
https://www.miit.gov.cn/cms_files/f...ch/20224/39a4716160414ee8874808c50fe30b5b.pdf
This is from the MIIT website (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology). In the PDF file, search for 特斯拉 which means Tesla. You can differentiate Model 3 and Y by vehicle length. Also, the last row shows motor power, for example, 194 kW.
People getting Model Y VINs on 28 June means that production at Giga Shanghai has switched to the Australia version of Model Y on 28 June. They do this because there isn't enough time left anymore to deliver cars locally. So, they have switched production to exports.