Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

Pointing out that companies like Waymo and Cruise have lost billions is a flawed argument IMO. Most companies lose money in the beginning because they have to spend money to create the infrastructure needed to make a profit. Remember, Tesla lost billions when they were ramping up production. But that initial loss was an investment that made it possible to scale production. Now Tesla makes a profit. Amazon was the same. They lost a lot in the beginning but it was an investment in warehouses, distribution network etc... It allowed them to scale their deliveries. Now Amazon is huge. AV companies like Waymo and Cruise are in a similar situation. Developing and deploying autonomous vehicles is very expensive. They will lose money in the beginning but it is investment into developing the tech and laying the groundwork for scaling. if they do it right, they will be able to scale their robotaxi service quickly and then they will make a big profit. Is it a guarantee? No, of course not. It is always possible that they could fail to scale. In fact, many AV companies will fail because they lack the initial capital. But I am confident Waymo and Cruise will succeed. Mobileye will also succeed big time!

And respectfully, people who complain that robotaxi companies have not scaled everywhere yet, don't seem to understand the challenge of solving robotaxis. First, developing a vehicle that can safely drive on its own with no human intervention is a huge challenge. Nobody has solved FSD yet! And robotaxis need to do more than just get from A to B without hitting anything, they also need to be affordable, convenient and comfortable rides for their customers. There is more to autonomous ride-hailing than just "solving FSD". The fact is that nobody has solved robotaxis yet. Nobody has even solved FSD yet! It will take years and billions of dollars. It is not going to happen over night. But we are much closer than we were just a few years ago.

 

[Goose66]

I think L2 will require more and more strict driver monitoring as it gets better so taking your eyes off the road will not be an option.

I didn’t pay $2K for FSD for that!

 

[diplomat33]

Weird they are getting rid of it right as we enter the glorious worldwide robotaxi utopia.

Intel will still own 95% of Mobileye. They are simply offering 5%. They are not getting rid of it.

Mobileye is already a big ADAS company and they are going to be a big AV company. They have a really good FSD approach that scales for both personal cars and robotaxis. They are going to be one of the biggest distributors of L4. So it makes sense to trade on the stock market. Congrats to Mobileye on their IPO!

 

[Bladerskb]

Btw, Intel bought Mobileye for $15.3 billion.

Years and years later. Mobileye is IPOing for $16 billion, lol.

The sun is setting on Mobileye. Good time to get rid of it.

Mobileye IPO Would Value Self-Driving Car Company At $16 Billion

Intel stock edged up Monday, as it gets ready to spin off the self-driving technology company Mobileye, which could raise $820 million.

www.investors.com

Intel offering 5% of a company while still owning 95% of it is getting rid of it?
Lol gotta love that logic

 

[DanCar]

Lidar price down to $250.

https://www.selfdrivingcars360.com/lidar-sensor-price-plunge-leads-to-orders-from-gm-volkswagen/

 

[Bladerskb]

Lidar price down to $250.

https://www.selfdrivingcars360.com/lidar-sensor-price-plunge-leads-to-orders-from-gm-volkswagen/

View attachment 867759

But but James douma told me that lidar will cost $100k dollars!

 

[diplomat33]

Argo.AI is shutting down and being absorbed by Ford and VW:

Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed into its two main backers: Ford and VW, according to people familiar with the matter.

Ford, VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down | TechCrunch

Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment from Ford, is shutting down.

techcrunch.com

 

[DanCar]

Argo.AI is shutting down and being absorbed by Ford and VW:

Ford, VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down | TechCrunch

Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment from Ford, is shutting down.

techcrunch.com

I guess this means they couldn't agree on future funding so each company decided to absorb instead. Surprising. I guess this means they don't think they are close to release or in other words a viable product.

 

[Jeff N]

Exclusive: Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims

The U.S. Department of Justice launched the probe last year following more than a dozen crashes, some fatal, involving Tesla’s driver assistance system Autopilot, people familiar with the matter say.

www.reuters.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I guess this means they don't think they are close to release or in other words a viable product.

Really starting to look like no one is! Though could be just a temporary valley of doubt.

 

[DanCar]

Really starting to look like no one is! Though could be just a temporary valley of doubt.

I think that comment is in relation to a consumer product and does not count Waymo and Cruise. I'm hopeful Mobileye has a product available at lower cost than Tesla by 2026 and yeah that isn't close.

 

[Dewg]

Hopefully Mobileye will be an easy OEM plugin for manufacturers. If so we'll see L2 being widely released in the next few years. Honda Civic with L2!!!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I think that comment is in relation to a consumer product and does not count Waymo and Cruise. I'm hopeful Mobileye has a product available at lower cost than Tesla by 2026 and yeah that isn't close.

My comment includes Waymo and Cruise! Obviously they are way further along but I am unclear on the viability of the business right now. We’ll see.

 

[DanCar]

My comment includes Waymo and Cruise! Obviously they are way further along but I am unclear on the viability of the business right now. We’ll see.

From my perspective it is not viable since they are each spending more than $4 billion per year on it, but if they are willing to do that for the next 5+ years, then I suppose we are all hopeful that eventually it will be profitable. I suspect Waymo will be successful / profitable with truck business first. Seems easier to drive on the freeways.

 

[DanCar]

Hopefully Mobileye will be an easy OEM plugin for manufacturers. If so we'll see L2 being widely released in the next few years. Honda Civic with L2!!!

We have lots of L2 vehicles already. Steering assist + speed assist. I think what is meant is city L2?

 

[kabin]

I guess this means they couldn't agree on future funding so each company decided to absorb instead. Surprising. I guess this means they don't think they are close to release or in other words a viable product.

CNBC says Ford shutting it down as they were spending lots of money for Level 4 autonomous driving but now believe it isn't achievable anytime in the near term. Apparently they will focus on Level 2 and 3. Bummer, the average customer's steering wheel isn't going away anytime soon.

 

[diplomat33]

I guess this means they couldn't agree on future funding so each company decided to absorb instead. Surprising. I guess this means they don't think they are close to release or in other words a viable product.

CNBC says Ford shutting it down as they were spending lots of money for Level 4 autonomous driving but now believe it isn't achievable anytime in the near term. Apparently they will focus on Level 2 and 3. Bummer, the average customer's steering wheel isn't going away anytime soon.

Argo did launch ride-hailing in Austin earlier this year. So I think Argo had a viable product and was making progress. But perhaps Ford felt the progress was not fast enough. My guess is Ford feels they can probably adapt Argo's autonomous stack to do L2 or L3 on a much quicker timeline. And for Ford, deploying good L2 door to door or L3 on their consumer cars in the next year gives them more tangible benefits than waiting on Argo to (hopefully) scale robotaxis in X years.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

L2 or L3 on a much quicker timeline.

deploying good L2 door to door

Seems doubtful, since door-to-door L2 may actually be more difficult than L4 or L5.

Will assist with L3 maybe! Or basic L2 in limited ODD.

 

[diplomat33]

Seems doubtful, since door-to-door L2 may actually be more difficult than L4 or L5.

Will assist with L3 maybe! Or basic L2 in limited ODD.

Ford CEO tweeted some clarifications. He wants to focus on Blue Cruise and make it L3 (eyes off). He says Ford will be hiring Argo engineers to work on Blue Cruise. He says he is still interested in L4 but more long term.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585365406025646080

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585365408164433922

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/10/26/third-quarter-2022-financial-results.html

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Ford CEO tweeted some clarifications. He wants to focus on Blue Cruise and make it L3 (eyes off). He says Ford will be hiring Argo engineers to work on Blue Cruise. He says he is still interested in L4 but more long term.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585365406025646080

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585365408164433922

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2022/10/26/third-quarter-2022-financial-results.html

Yep, that's what makes more sense. Door-to-door L2 is kind of the pinnacle of difficulty, so not much logic in starting there. And they already have limited L2 functionality, though it's probably intentionally hobbled a bit (I don't keep track of the details of how each manufacturer limits their L2 systems in unique nonsensical ways).