Engineering whistleblower explains why safe Full Self-Driving can't ever happen
"artificial general intelligence (an AI with human-level intelligence and reasoning capabilities) does not exist."
And DeKort bizarrely claims AGI is "the only path to true FSD". Whatever "true FSD" means. I just want to wake up at my destination. Don't need AGI for that, as Waymo shows.
1 Crash / how many miles:
Waymo+Cruise: 60,000
US drivers: 600,000
Tesla Autopilot+drivers: 4.85 million
Completely different crash types.
Tesla: severe crashes, e.g. airbag deployments
US drivers: police reported crashes (~10x higher than airbag deployments)
Waymo: every single contact event with a moving or stationary object or person, no matter how minor, even if no damage
Show me a 100k mile Tesla that's pristine, never any body work and not a single wheel scrape from a curb or scratch or ding or window crack from a bumper or bollard or road debris. Then tell me about 4.85 million miles.
Real numbers, like Swiss Re study of Waymo driverless miles, show Waymo is much safer than humans. Also note that >90% of the Waymo crashes filed with DMV are the fault of the other (i.e. human) party, not Waymo. And the few that were Waymo's fault were exceedingly minor, e.g. scraping a curb or brushing a parked car. A >10:1 ratio is a pretty strong clue, no?
Human drivers, he said, are scanning their environment all the time
Right. Except when they're drowsy. Or drunk. Or high. Or texting. Or reading a clever billboard. Or distracted by a miniskirt.....
Self-driving cars would have to clock billions to hundreds of billions of miles using their current methods to achieve a fatality rate in line with that of human drivers: one per 100 million miles, a 2016 study by
Rand found.
Repeatedly debunked. Why exclude the 99%++ of wrecks which are not fatal? Makes no sense. Again, see the Swiss Re study for confidence intervals with a fraction of that many miles.
"They can do a lot of it. They'll make progress, which is why they are where they are," he said. "But they will not get far enough to where they're better than a human."
I don't know who "they" are in this quote, but Waymo is safer than the average human already. So what's he trying to say?