Tracking your post. In a similar situation.I’m used to waiting…
Back in December of 2010, I placed a deposit for my first Model S. (reservation #2450) After returning to Vegas from Silicon Valley, with no service center here, I canceled in April of 2013 once production started. Then reordered in August of 2013, once the SC opened up here. I missed the retracting mirror by like 2 weeks when I took delivery in late October of 2013.
I made my Model X deposit of $5K in early April. After finally getting a test drive, I finalized my 5 seat Model X 90D in late May, with stated delivery date of July. In mid July I got a call from the Tesla rep in Fremont, asking me if I wanted to change to the 6 or 7 seat configuration, and if I did they would deliver in late September. (even in July that were trying to push as many cars thru before the end of the quarter) At the time, I didn't want to switch, but after hearing that I might not get the car this year, (I need the tax credit), I later decide to switch to the 6 seat configuration, they waived the change fee, but the change increased the cost of the car by 3K for the 6 seat config. I officially changed on August 10, I got my VIN on August 16, I was given an unofficial delivery date of September 20. All that being said, now with AP 2.0 on the horizon, I can't really see spending $111K on a car that comes with soon the be outdated hardware. (don't want to repeat the retracting mirror experience) No one can really say when the AP 2.0 hardware will come, but I think it will hit in October. Last week, I ask my DS to push back the delivery to at least late October and I willing to wait longer as long as it comes this year with AP 2.0 hardware.
To date, no-one has seen any S or X coming off the line with the new hardware.
Even though my dashboard still is in ordered status, the DS says its in the production schedule and can't be delayed. Well, as I see it, that leaves me with 3 options:
1 - Cancel my order and start over, I hope this option nets out to cost me $1500, (way less that a retrofit, if its available) as I hope I only lose $2500 of my $5K deposit, But as I ordered when there wasn't a referral program, as a Telsa owner I can get $1K back by using my own referral.
2 - If possible, request a change back to the 5 seat config, this would only cost $500 and really postpone it for a long time.
3 - Wait until the cars shows, and it it doesn't have the AP 2.0 hardware, cancel at that time. I'm making the assumption that the cancelation cost would be the same.
I'm not rich, I drive a lot so my gas cost per month would be over $500 with an ICE, so my net coast are about the same and I see the value in the choice I've made to help the environment and to "send my money to Silicon Valley instead of the Middle East" But I will find a way, even it cost me a little more to wait for the new hardware, because I can't see paying that much for a car, and if it doesn't come with the AP 2.0 hardware, being disappointed with the car the first day I get it and regretting not waiting everyday after that.
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don't be pessimistic!! They will ship at least 3 cars at the end of 2017
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
You make some excellent points. I think most of the retrofits they've offered have been fairly simple, but I could see this falling in that category depending on just what all is already there and what is required.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
I think there is a big bonus in Elons contract if he ships a Model 3 on time. May not have to ship a lot, but its a milestone in his contract.
IIRC, it is a milestone tied directly to option vesting, but I don't think there is a deadline.
jvonbokel
John VonBokel
Correct.
Per the SEC filing (bold indicates completed):
• Successful completion of the Model X Alpha Prototype;
• Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
• Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle;
• Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype;
• Successful completion of the Model 3 Beta Prototype;
• Completion of the first Model 3 Production Vehicle;
• Gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters;
• Aggregate vehicle production of 100,000 vehicles;
• Aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles; and
• Aggregate vehicle production of 300,000 vehicles.
Source: Elon Musk is on track to collect $1.6 billion from Tesla
They're probably getting pretty close to completing the Model 3 Beta, and aggregate vehicle production of 200,000 vehicles.
That gross margin goal is probably going to be tough, considering that margins will inevitably shrink once Model 3 is in production.
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Hmmm- I was sure I saw some deadlines in those goals. And a few more goals to boot. All king sized stretches for a mere mortal, but in the contract never the less.
This contract was written years ago, and if there were deadlines, he would have missed every one of them!
I'm sorry - too lazy to read thru this entire thread. But I'd like to suggest an idea; apologies if it has already been considered.
Several sources (most importantly, George Hotz from comma.ai) have spoken about the color channel limitation in MobileEye's/Tesla's self-driving hardware. Specifically, the camera used is a normal RGB-based camera, but the CPU only processes the red channel. So, Autopilot can only see, process, and react to structures that have some red in its coloration. Pure white (paint) has no red so the camera simply doesn't see white structures (of course, I'm simplifying). There's a video where Hotz talks about how he made a system that uses all 3 channels and "sees in color" over 1 weekend and specifically calls that task "trivial." Now, he may be a special person but it would seem to me Tesla can do the same thing in the space of a couple of months, it would cost marginally more (maybe like $500 more). Perhaps it needs a 2nd processor as it is tripling its processing, or perhaps a very minor function of making a composite image from combining all 3 channels (I'm using the word composite as a simple english term, not an electrical engineering term), or perhaps they've changed the data processed as a single byte to a 3 byte word.
Thoughts?
Several sources (most importantly, George Hotz from comma.ai) have spoken about the color channel limitation in MobileEye's/Tesla's self-driving hardware. Specifically, the camera used is a normal RGB-based camera, but the CPU only processes the red channel. So, Autopilot can only see, process, and react to structures that have some red in its coloration. Pure white (paint) has no red so the camera simply doesn't see white structures (of course, I'm simplifying). There's a video where Hotz talks about how he made a system that uses all 3 channels and "sees in color" over 1 weekend and specifically calls that task "trivial." Now, he may be a special person but it would seem to me Tesla can do the same thing in the space of a couple of months, it would cost marginally more (maybe like $500 more). Perhaps it needs a 2nd processor as it is tripling its processing, or perhaps a very minor function of making a composite image from combining all 3 channels (I'm using the word composite as a simple english term, not an electrical engineering term), or perhaps they've changed the data processed as a single byte to a 3 byte word.
Thoughts?
Well, the car is at the SC. It came early. It's beautiful, I've looked at it, it has no new hardware that can be seen. I haven't setup my delivery date yet, I'm going to wait until next week, see what the Firmware 8.0/8.1 update brings, and get a look at the next batch of cars coming from the factory, before I decide to accept or cancel and reorder.
EVie'sDad
Member
Take it asap. I got mine about 3 weeks before 7.0, and was able to familiarize myself with the 6.2 software and car behavior before the upgrade, making assimilation that much easier once the new release came out. Now I don't even think twice about installing updates, but most of the time they coincide with being near Service Centers/SuperChargers and most of the time on the weekends.
Waiting to get the all new 8.0 software update once it starts rolling out to the masses.
Waiting to get the all new 8.0 software update once it starts rolling out to the masses.
Take it and enjoy it. After the split with MobileEye I think people looking for new hardware any time soon are not being very realistic. We're at least 6 months out I suspect.
All I did was just asked "Is there any way you can lower the payment a little bit?"
He replied "I actually just got green light from my manager that I could waive the $1200 destination fee which we have never done for anyone before."
Both my wife and I thought they said this to everyone...
Wow. Have never heard this for a regular delivery.
Was this financing through Alliant ?
How much earlier than delivery was this? And we're you talking to DS or tesla finance person?
Could be a pretty big savings for a lot of q3 deliveries. Never hurts to ask.
Mine is a 2 year lease. The person I having been talking and emailing to is a owner advisor.
The weird thing is NO ONE ever asked me anything about my financial, credit, ssn, income etc. So I never met or talked with Tesla finance person....
They are pushing hard but now it looks like they are pushing too hard. This is NOT a good sign.
Waiving the doc fee is a standard thing they are doing for the Q3 push. The financing comes from Alliant credit union here in Chicago so not a Tesla thing at all. They assume all the credit risk and so on... Tesla is just pushing hard to sell cars which they should be doing.
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