Autopilot now $3k. Why?

[EternalChampion]

When I bought my P85D, there were two things that made me pull the trigger as I already had a Model X on order and didn't need another vehicle. It was the autopilot and the addition of all wheel drive. Emphasis on the autopilot as my travel tendencies are very compatible with the overall intention of autopilot to reduce driver fatigue on long interstate trips.

Now, between my Model S and my Model X, I'll venture that I have 10k miles in autopilot, probably more, and can tell you it is absolutely worth the money and then some. I routinely put 300 miles on my car virtually every weekend, and 90% of those miles aren't driven by me. Three grand for a personal chauffeur is amazing.

 

[theslimshadyist]

If TSLA charged $5K for AP I don't think even that would make a difference, people would still buy. I know that I would.

 

[ericscottf]

I'm fairly obsessed with whether or not my upcoming MS (Late sept/Oct delivery) will have the guts for AP2.0 or not... Happy I pulled the trigger before the $500 increase, but potentially upset that I'll miss out on 2nd gen AP by a small amount of time and have no retrofit options.

Thinking about it more, the issue I keep coming back to is that if new AP hardware were shipping now or soon, they'd have to have the software installed at ship, or recipients of it wouldn't have ANY AP at all on delivery.

All of the articles on AP 2.0 suggest a new processor, new/more cameras, more sensors, RADAR, etc. There's almost no way that the new equipment would work with the existing OS, as it's been around far too long.

So I'm thinking that either 8.0 contains the software that can make use of either 1.0 and 2.0 hardware to at least achieve 1.0 functionality - if that's the case, 8.0 has to be on these new cars by the time they're delivered... Or the new hardware simply isn't shipping any time soon.

The only other possibility is that if cars are shipping with new AP hardware now or soon, they also have the complete 1.0 suite of hardware as well. Which seems silly.

Thoughts? Any of this make sense?

 

[FaceACA]

I'm assuming AP2.0 (hardware) will be available by the time Model 3 launches, which makes me think it should be available on the S/X sometime before that. That would imply less than a year away, so I'm thinking late 2016 or early 2017.

I'm not sure what you mean by AP1.5 though... Maybe 1.0 hardware with more advanced software (coarse point clouds based on time-differentiated radar)?

I'll be surprised if they meet the model 3 timeline. I'd bank on mid/late 2018 for production. (Not counting them making 1 car just to say they made the deadline)

 

[brkaus]

No way what you pay for autopilot is linked to what hardware you get. Think about it logically - people that placed an order last week for delivery later this year or even early next year paid $2,500, and people placing an order today for delivery ASAP are paying $3,000. Tesla will begin putting in new hardware for Autopilot in all cars when they are ready and without notice, and irregardless of what you paid. Autopilot is one of the most amazing values as an option and they saw it fit to increase the price some.

I'm still waiting to see them build all the "future delivery" cars and put them in a building somewhere before they start on the new hardware configuration. The whole concept of lock order now and allow future delivery many months away just astounds me. Sure, they get orders locked in, but it sounds like high overhead dealing with people anytime there is a configuration change.

 

[FlatSix911]

I didn't get AP when placed my order. My DS told me today that I'd get charged the full $3,500 to activate AP even though I haven't actually taken delivery yet.

That sucks Was curious what would happen to existing orders/owners for upgrade prices if they changed. Can you upgrade it now before taking delivery at the original price? Not sure if it's something you want... but would be curious if you haven't taken delivery if you can add on AP. Mind you, likely have to pay the $500 change to order fee... so maybe that's a wash?

No worries... the $3K upgrade fee after purchase remains unchanged for legacy owners

 

[arosenbe]

I'm fairly obsessed with whether or not my upcoming MS (Late sept/Oct delivery) will have the guts for AP2.0 or not... Happy I pulled the trigger before the $500 increase, but potentially upset that I'll miss out on 2nd gen AP by a small amount of time and have no retrofit options.

Thinking about it more, the issue I keep coming back to is that if new AP hardware were shipping now or soon, they'd have to have the software installed at ship, or recipients of it wouldn't have ANY AP at all on delivery.

All of the articles on AP 2.0 suggest a new processor, new/more cameras, more sensors, RADAR, etc. There's almost no way that the new equipment would work with the existing OS, as it's been around far too long.

So I'm thinking that either 8.0 contains the software that can make use of either 1.0 and 2.0 hardware to at least achieve 1.0 functionality - if that's the case, 8.0 has to be on these new cars by the time they're delivered... Or the new hardware simply isn't shipping any time soon.

The only other possibility is that if cars are shipping with new AP hardware now or soon, they also have the complete 1.0 suite of hardware as well. Which seems silly.

Thoughts? Any of this make sense?

I'm in the exact same boat: Late Sept/Oct delivery of a MS. I've been making myself pretty nuts over the possibility of taking delivery and then finding out that cars with AP 2.0 are shipping a couple of weeks later. In terms of your post, I think (hope) that there's a scenario that you haven't mentioned. From a hardware perspective, I think there are three possibilities. 1) AP 1.0 hardware installed. (This is the minimum we will get). 2) AP 2.0 hardware ready. In this case, the harnessing, wiring, etc., needed for AP 2.0 will be there, enabling future installation of full AP 2.0 hardware possible at a later date for a hopefully reasonable cost. (This is my hope.) 3) AP 2.0 hardware installed. Ready to go once the software is updated. (I think that this is highly unlikely.)

Fingers crossed. Thoughts?

 

[number12]

I'm in the exact same boat: Late Sept/Oct delivery of a MS. I've been making myself pretty nuts over the possibility of taking delivery and then finding out that cars with AP 2.0 are shipping a couple of weeks later. In terms of your post, I think (hope) that there's a scenario that you haven't mentioned. From a hardware perspective, I think there are three possibilities. 1) AP 1.0 hardware installed. (This is the minimum we will get). 2) AP 2.0 hardware ready. In this case, the harnessing, wiring, etc., needed for AP 2.0 will be there, enabling future installation of full AP 2.0 hardware possible at a later date for a hopefully reasonable cost. (This is my hope.) 3) AP 2.0 hardware installed. Ready to go once the software is updated. (I think that this is highly unlikely.)

Fingers crossed. Thoughts?

same boat with X. Out of order window. If somehow you found out before delivery it was on next weeks model. Would you forfeit deposit and start over?

It would basically be paying $2500+waiting for 2.0 hardware on a purchased not leased car.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Because they can?

 

[ericscottf]

I'm in the exact same boat: Late Sept/Oct delivery of a MS. I've been making myself pretty nuts over the possibility of taking delivery and then finding out that cars with AP 2.0 are shipping a couple of weeks later. In terms of your post, I think (hope) that there's a scenario that you haven't mentioned. From a hardware perspective, I think there are three possibilities. 1) AP 1.0 hardware installed. (This is the minimum we will get). 2) AP 2.0 hardware ready. In this case, the harnessing, wiring, etc., needed for AP 2.0 will be there, enabling future installation of full AP 2.0 hardware possible at a later date for a hopefully reasonable cost. (This is my hope.) 3) AP 2.0 hardware installed. Ready to go once the software is updated. (I think that this is highly unlikely.)

Fingers crossed. Thoughts?

There's no way your #3 is the case. It would mean they have to have new firmware on the car by the time the first one gets to its owner. It's inconceivable that the current firmware works with whatever the new AP hardware is.
The only way this is even remotely possible is if they shipped AP2.0 hardware and when people got the car, they said "your AP doesn't work for now. It'll be enabled when the new OS is pushed in a few days/weeks/etc." Tho this seems very unlikely as well. Seems like a lot of trouble just to make a few obsessed people happy. Some group of people are going to get the last AP1.0 hardware with no upgrade path. From our perspective, we'd prefer it wasn't us. From their perspective, it doesn't matter who it is.

#2 is possible but highly unlikely. Wiring, cutouts, different panels, brackets... All shipping before any hardware is installed? Seems doubtful. I suppose they could make it possible to retrofit, but I would assume it would be expensive. Who knows how much the electronics depart from what's current? Could be that the main computer can't interface to the new AP hardware at all. We're pretty sure the new AP hardware is a different manuf, so that's entirely possible.

My (pessimistic) guess at this time is that the new OS will show up before the AP2.0 hardware does, and it will include the software for using both types of AP hardware. (or there will just be 2 flavors of the new OS, one for old hardware, one for new, but it'll appear the same to users, etc). It seems unnecessarily complex for them to try to time the release of the software with people receiving cars with the new hardware in them.

I would seriously consider stalling or cancelling my order if I knew that 2.0 was coming soon. But my current car is barely hanging on, and winter is coming... And paying an extra $3k (2500 deposit + 500 more for AP) for the feature would eat up the discount I got and then some. The car was enough of a stretch as it is.

 

[trils0n]

If autopilot 2.0 is something you think you need then you should order when it is available. Ordering an autopilot 1.0 car when what you really want is 2.0, and hoping it will be a 2.0 magically by the time it arrives seems like a recipe for disappointment.

 

[Saghost]

I'm in the exact same boat: Late Sept/Oct delivery of a MS. I've been making myself pretty nuts over the possibility of taking delivery and then finding out that cars with AP 2.0 are shipping a couple of weeks later. In terms of your post, I think (hope) that there's a scenario that you haven't mentioned. From a hardware perspective, I think there are three possibilities. 1) AP 1.0 hardware installed. (This is the minimum we will get). 2) AP 2.0 hardware ready. In this case, the harnessing, wiring, etc., needed for AP 2.0 will be there, enabling future installation of full AP 2.0 hardware possible at a later date for a hopefully reasonable cost. (This is my hope.) 3) AP 2.0 hardware installed. Ready to go once the software is updated. (I think that this is highly unlikely.)

Fingers crossed. Thoughts?

We know for a fact that Tesla has left provisions in the Model X for components we've never seen (empty section of the windshield housing, wiring in the headliner behind it.

Since they appear to be in every car, I'd argue that they are part of a future plan rather than being a mistake or leftover (20 engineering changes per week, remember? There's no way they'd leave those things in place if they didn't have a reason.

Based on that information, my expectation is that all Xs and the refresh Ss are in that second bucket - pre-wired for more autopilot than is installed, possibly enough for full autonomy and possibly not.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I'm fairly obsessed with whether or not my upcoming MS (Late sept/Oct delivery) will have the guts for AP2.0 or not... Happy I pulled the trigger before the $500 increase, but potentially upset that I'll miss out on 2nd gen AP by a small amount of time and have no retrofit options.

Thinking about it more, the issue I keep coming back to is that if new AP hardware were shipping now or soon, they'd have to have the software installed at ship, or recipients of it wouldn't have ANY AP at all on delivery.

All of the articles on AP 2.0 suggest a new processor, new/more cameras, more sensors, RADAR, etc. There's almost no way that the new equipment would work with the existing OS, as it's been around far too long.

So I'm thinking that either 8.0 contains the software that can make use of either 1.0 and 2.0 hardware to at least achieve 1.0 functionality - if that's the case, 8.0 has to be on these new cars by the time they're delivered... Or the new hardware simply isn't shipping any time soon.

The only other possibility is that if cars are shipping with new AP hardware now or soon, they also have the complete 1.0 suite of hardware as well. Which seems silly.

Thoughts? Any of this make sense?

I would not say that this is necessarily a good assumption. The recent public dropping of Mobileye kind of makes it more uncertain if this would still be true going forward, but the wiring diagrams from the service manual shows a triple cam Mobileye system. This would likely be a backwards compatible chip and system (one of the cameras is the same as the current center cam). Or even if not entirely backwards compatible, most of the APIs will be the same (so relatively easy to program something that is compatible with both). Thus it is entirely possible that they use AP 1.0 software on a newer Mobileye chip/camera set.

Of course this would be different if rumors are true Tesla will switch to nVidia in the near future.

 

[jvonbokel]

All of the articles on AP 2.0 suggest a new processor, new/more cameras, more sensors, RADAR, etc. There's almost no way that the new equipment would work with the existing OS, as it's been around far too long.

I don't see why it wouldn't be backwards compatible. In fact, I fully expect it will be. Of the 3 cameras, one will likely be identical to the existing AP1.0 hardware. I think any "new processor" (i.e. internally developed) is months away. Tesla will likely still rely on the Mobileye processors for now. Their partnership has ended, but it doesn't mean Tesla is no longer a customer. When their internal efforts match/exceed the capabilities of the Mobileye parts, then they'll switch over.

We know for a fact that Tesla has left provisions in the Model X for components we've never seen (empty section of the windshield housing, wiring in the headliner behind it.

Since they appear to be in every car, I'd argue that they are part of a future plan rather than being a mistake or leftover (20 engineering changes per week, remember? There's no way they'd leave those things in place if they didn't have a reason.

There has to be a reason, agreed, but it doesn't mean that reason is to support a retrofit. In the case of a component that has 2 (or 3) inputs instead of one, it could just be that they are out of the original component, and the cost is similar enough to justify installing the new component. As Elon has said regarding the Model 3, if any one of the thousands of necessary parts is not available, you can't build the car. Managing all those pipelines at once is difficult enough without having to synchronize them perfectly. Perhaps they set a date with an array of AP2.0 hardware suppliers to be ready by Sept 1st, and the supplier of the component we're seeing was ahead of schedule, while another supplier is still on-target or even behind. Once they're all ready, then all the components will be installed (and Tesla can make an official announcement). That doesn't mean Tesla's going to commit to enabling a retrofit of the missing components for all cars built in-between.

Don't get me wrong, I hope you (and others) are right, and that they're going to offer a retrofit, but history suggests they avoid that as much as possible and prefer to tell people the simplest upgrade path is to buy a new car.

 

[Saghost]

I don't see why it wouldn't be backwards compatible. In fact, I fully expect it will be. Of the 3 cameras, one will likely be identical to the existing AP1.0 hardware. I think any "new processor" (i.e. internally developed) is months away. Tesla will likely still rely on the Mobileye processors for now. Their partnership has ended, but it doesn't mean Tesla is no longer a customer. When their internal efforts match/exceed the capabilities of the Mobileye parts, then they'll switch over.



There has to be a reason, agreed, but it doesn't mean that reason is to support a retrofit. In the case of a component that has 2 (or 3) inputs instead of one, it could just be that they are out of the original component, and the cost is similar enough to justify installing the new component. As Elon has said regarding the Model 3, if any one of the thousands of necessary parts is not available, you can't build the car. Managing all those pipelines at once is difficult enough without having to synchronize them perfectly. Perhaps they set a date with an array of AP2.0 hardware suppliers to be ready by Sept 1st, and the supplier of the component we're seeing was ahead of schedule, while another supplier is still on-target or even behind. Once they're all ready, then all the components will be installed (and Tesla can make an official announcement). That doesn't mean Tesla's going to commit to enabling a retrofit of the missing components for all cars built in-between.

Don't get me wrong, I hope you (and others) are right, and that they're going to offer a retrofit, but history suggests they avoid that as much as possible and prefer to tell people the simplest upgrade path is to buy a new car.

Maybe I'm reading their history differently than you are. Folding mirrors had harnesses before the parts, and Tesla offered a retrofit. Tesla offered a retrofit for there parking sensors, too, though the price was crazy because they wanted to replace both bumpers. Ludicrous mode for P85Ds, now the 100 upgrade for P90DL owners.

I can't think of another car manufacturer that has offered updates anywhere near as consistently (or at all, really, aside from recalls,) but Tesla has offered a lot of them.

Not everything, and very little on the battery side (which I expect to change post gigafactory,) but they have a history of updates, and I'm pretty sure we'll see this one too.

I sure hope so - took delivery yesterday, my X looks like all the others I've seen with AP1.1 since the X launch event (the camera interface and location of the presumed Mobileye processor are clearly different on the X from the S, but there's been no evidence that it works any differently.)
Walter

 

[number12]

Maybe I'm reading their history differently than you are. Folding mirrors had harnesses before the parts, and Tesla offered a retrofit. Tesla offered a retrofit for there parking sensors, too, though the price was crazy because they wanted to replace both bumpers. Ludicrous mode for P85Ds, now the 100 upgrade for P90DL owners.

I can't think of another car manufacturer that has offered updates anywhere near as consistently (or at all, really, aside from recalls,) but Tesla has offered a lot of them.

Not everything, and very little on the battery side (which I expect to change post gigafactory,) but they have a history of updates, and I'm pretty sure we'll see this one too.

I sure hope so - took delivery yesterday, my X looks like all the others I've seen with AP1.1 since the X launch event (the camera interface and location of the presumed Mobileye processor are clearly different on the X from the S, but there's been no evidence that it works any differently.)
Walter

Also no other company offers new things one week after delivery. They wait a year or max half a year. Which is good and bad. When tesla almost offers zero incentive to lease there is a bigger risk of unestimatable depreciation slide that's solely on consumers

 

[ohmman]

Also no other company offers new things one week after delivery. They wait a year or max half a year.

Well, it depends on when you take delivery. Really, what I think you're saying is that the release schedule with other manufacturers is predictable, so you can work around it if you want. The fact that you cannot is currently unique to Tesla as far as I know, and it seems to bother some people. I support them pushing forward as quickly as possible, but understand that opinions differ.

 

[stillageek]

I thought it was a "one off" but it was waived for our order as well. We placed the order last weekend. I think it had to be in by 8/22. Throw in a referral discount and it almost pays for the $2500 autopilot fee.

 

[stillageek]

It was waived for my order on 8/21.

The destination fee was waived for our order as well. I believe it had to be in by 8/22. Sorry for the double post. This forum is a bit different than others I am used to.

 

[wave1]

I’m used to waiting…

Back in December of 2010, I placed a deposit for my first Model S. (reservation #2450) After returning to Vegas from Silicon Valley, with no service center here, I canceled in April of 2013 once production started. Then reordered in August of 2013, once the SC opened up here. I missed the retracting mirror by like 2 weeks when I took delivery in late October of 2013.

I made my Model X deposit of $5K in early April. After finally getting a test drive, I finalized my 5 seat Model X 90D in late May, with stated delivery date of July. In mid July I got a call from the Tesla rep in Fremont, asking me if I wanted to change to the 6 or 7 seat configuration, and if I did they would deliver in late September. (even in July that were trying to push as many cars thru before the end of the quarter) At the time, I didn't want to switch, but after hearing that I might not get the car this year, (I need the tax credit), I later decide to switch to the 6 seat configuration, they waived the change fee, but the change increased the cost of the car by 3K for the 6 seat config. I officially changed on August 10, I got my VIN on August 16, I was given an unofficial delivery date of September 20. All that being said, now with AP 2.0 on the horizon, I can't really see spending $111K on a car that comes with soon the be outdated hardware. (don't want to repeat the retracting mirror experience) No one can really say when the AP 2.0 hardware will come, but I think it will hit in October. Last week, I ask my DS to push back the delivery to at least late October and I willing to wait longer as long as it comes this year with AP 2.0 hardware.

To date, no-one has seen any S or X coming off the line with the new hardware.

Even though my dashboard still is in ordered status, the DS says its in the production schedule and can't be delayed. Well, as I see it, that leaves me with 3 options:

1 - Cancel my order and start over, I hope this option nets out to cost me $1500, (way less that a retrofit, if its available) as I hope I only lose $2500 of my $5K deposit, But as I ordered when there wasn't a referral program, as a Telsa owner I can get $1K back by using my own referral.

2 - If possible, request a change back to the 5 seat config, this would only cost $500 and really postpone it for a long time.

3 - Wait until the cars shows, and it it doesn't have the AP 2.0 hardware, cancel at that time. I'm making the assumption that the cancelation cost would be the same.

I'm not rich, I drive a lot so my gas cost per month would be over $500 with an ICE, so my net coast are about the same and I see the value in the choice I've made to help the environment and to "send my money to Silicon Valley instead of the Middle East" But I will find a way, even it cost me a little more to wait for the new hardware, because I can't see paying that much for a car, and if it doesn't come with the AP 2.0 hardware, being disappointed with the car the first day I get it and regretting not waiting everyday after that.