Battery Format for Model 3 - 18650 commodity cells or large format batteries

[BluestarE3]

And that weird 2-sizes-in-1 clay model was sitting in the design studio months ago, after all.

Are you referring to the one under the black car cover in the Australian 60 Minutes story last year?

If so, I always thought that was just a Model X under the cover with one Falcon Wing partially up, thus giving the impression for some that it's an asymmetrical "Janus" of a car model under there.

 

[Bangor Bob]

That's the one. At the time there was speculation it was a 3+Y hybrid.

 

[Saghost]

Are you referring to the one under the black car cover in the Australian 60 Minutes story last year?

If so, I always thought that was just a Model X under the cover with one Falcon Wing partially up, thus giving the impression for some that it's an asymmetrical "Janus" of a car model under there.

The shape and proportions are wrong for an X with an open door - the flat across the top would be much wider, for one thing. The cover also seems to be supported along the front curve.

 

[BluestarE3]

The shape and proportions are wrong for an X with an open door - the flat across the top would be much wider, for one thing. The cover also seems to be supported along the front curve.

The door can articulate independently in two sections, so basing the shape of the object by the hang of the fabric covering it can be deceptive to one's eyes. Given how secretive Tesla is, why would they tease a clay model of the Model 3, let alone a Model Y or an even more unlikely Janus, on a TV show 8 months before the Model 3 was revealed (a design which none of the "leakers" or speculators got right)? I think Occam's Razor applies here. It's most likely the tired old prototype Model X, which at the time of the broadcast, Tesla would still drag out for public display periodically.

 

[JRP3]

I think Occam's Razor applies here. It's most likely the tired old prototype Model X, which at the time of the broadcast, Tesla would still drag out for public display periodically.

Looks too short to be an X, too small overall in fact. Plus the cover is supported by something over the windshield and a falcon door would not project forward of the front passenger door. Occam's Razor tells me it's not an X

 

[Saghost]

The door can articulate independently in two sections, so basing the shape of the object by the hang of the fabric covering it can be deceptive to one's eyes. Given how secretive Tesla is, why would they tease a clay model of the Model 3, let alone a Model Y or an even more unlikely Janus, on a TV show 8 months before the Model 3 was revealed (a design which none of the "leakers" or speculators got right)? I think Occam's Razor applies here. It's most likely the tired old prototype Model X, which at the time of the broadcast, Tesla would still drag out for public display periodically.

I don't disagree with your logic about when showing things makes sense.

Having said that, Elon said that the Y was developed along with the 3, and after months with my X I'm quite confident that no configuration of my falcon wing doors could look anything like that model.

 

[Bangor Bob]

It turned out the 3 had been plainly visible in a Tesla HR recruiting video for months prior to the reveal and nobody noticed. They're not 100% airtight on not showing things before they're ready. They're close though. 99.95%-ish.

That beast has the 3's "underbite" thing going on up front.

 

[Reeler]

Looks like a Model Y with some sort of pad from front to back under the sheet.

 

[Red Sage]

Well you can have that pessimistic outlook (looking forward from now), but I don't expect it from Elon. He has already said, that the new models are planned for announcement in 2018 (after having seen demand for the model 3), so I will ignore your typical pessimism .

I've been actively attempting to avoid clickbait articles with even more fervor since March 31, 2016. So, I've missed whatever point where Elon mentioned such a thing. But that being the case, since I do believe the Model ☰ will be in the hands of several thousand new owners during 2017, that proves my earlier point. That Tesla should not display new body styles, and accept deposits for them, prior to Model ☰ actually being on the market, but afterward. 2018 is fine.

 

[Red Sage]

Tesla is already far along with the Y. Just like they're father along with their semi, van/bus, and pickup than mere words that were once uttered aloud by Elon. Just because you haven't seen it doesn't mean it doesn't already exist in some physical form.

But Tesla isn't going to reveal the Y until after the 3 is already being produced and delivered en masse.

It would be stupid to cannibalize the 3 with the Y before the 3 has even established itself. It would also be stupid to extend themselves to thin. They are reliant on the 3 being profitable, and in large production quantities, in order to fund continued Tesla expansion.

Once Tesla has released all of their models in the next 5-10 years, THEN they can start worrying about completely updating multiple models at once. Because by then each model who already be self supporting its own production via its sales revenue.

They can't start up two new assembly lines at once because they don't have the capital or the employees to do it. If Tesla wants to be a "real" car company then they need to have a successful launch of the 3. Because if that doesn't happen you can kiss your Y goodbye.

This. They're not paying Franz and his team to sit around, and that team will likely have limited work onthe 3 past "pencils down" - some corrections and refinements based on supplier or production tooling producer's input, but probably not full-time work for the whole department. And that weird 2-sizes-in-1 clay model was sitting in the design studio months ago, after all.



This also. Tesla has never been shy about asking customers to buy the next version right after delivering the previous "next version." If you buy a 3 and then sell it to buy a Y, that would make their finance people very happy.

A smart move from Tesla would be to make the new line flexible enough to handle several variants on the 3's basic platform. Until they tell us about that, we likely won't hear about it unless a supplier's employee breaks confidentiality. But it would be a smart thing for an "alien dreadnought" of a manufacturing facility to be able to do...

I actually like both your posts. My only point of contention is in regard to the possibility of 'cannibalization'. That isn't anything that Tesla will worry about in the slightest. To them, a sale, is a sale, is a sale. But sales should be maximized for all platforms, instead of slowing to a trickle for a few, for the benefit of others. I hope that makes sense...

My concern though, is that at the critical stage of making Model ☰ available in quantities to meet its demand, Tesla might (~*might*~) end up cannibalizing their internal Capacity for Production by attempting to bring another high volume vehicle online too soon. I'm fairly certain that the Model X did not deter the Production of Model S at all. Though, on the flip side, the Production of Model S definitely delayed the introduction of Model X. Yes, new body styles and vehicle configurations should come along as quickly as possible. But none should be rushed, nor delayed. It is the perception of either that I would like to avoid.

 

[Red Sage]

I don't disagree with your logic about when showing things makes sense.

Having said that, Elon said that the Y was developed along with the 3, and after months with my X I'm quite confident that no configuration of my falcon wing doors could look anything like that model.

I've said for some time that it is highly unlikely that Franz Von Holzhausen and his team have been sitting on their hands since February 2012. If they were to 'leak' their sketches and ideas to the Tesla Enthusiast Community the ensuing carnage would be wondrous to behold. I doubt there would be an 'Osborne Effect', but there would be a lot of people clamoring for an opportunity to ante up deposits, and many of them would then potentially spend too many YEARS bellyaching about it afterward. I'd prefer that from now on nothing be revealed unless there were a genuine likelihood of first Deliveries being made within 18-to-24 months. Anything further out than that can remain under cover.

 

[alseTrick]

Is that the 3 to its left? Because that asymmetric vehicle looks much narrower than the other vehicle.

 

[garsh]

Is that the 3 to its left? Because that asymmetric vehicle looks much narrower than the other vehicle.

I think it only looks that way due to the camera lens. Things near the edges look a bit stretched.

 

[Topher]

It would be stupid to cannibalize the 3 with the Y before the 3 has even established itself.

They have 600,000 (ish) orders for the Model 3. They couldn't cannibalize it if they tried. And they are trying (with the Model S60). Production is the current problem NOT demand. Releiving the pressure on production by shifting demand to a vehicle with a longer perceived wait time, is win-win for Tesla.

They can't start up two new assembly lines at once because they don't have the capital or the employees to do it.

They are a starting up several (3? 4?) new assembly lines right now for the 3. Another new one in a year or so should be old hat.

Thank you kindly.

 

[JRP3]

They have 600,000 (ish) orders for the Model 3.

Source?

 

[3Victoria]

Is that the 3 to its left? Because that asymmetric vehicle looks much narrower than the other vehicle.

And how about that white vehicle behind to the right of the photo? Looks like it could go underwater.

 

[Topher]

Source?

Do you have an argument where it matters what the exact number is?

Thank you kindly.

 

[JRP3]

You've about doubled the number from what I know, which was 300-400K, so I assumed you must have a source for doing so.

 

[JeffK]

And how about that white vehicle behind to the right of the photo? Looks like it could go underwater.

 

[Red Sage]

Elon would make a great 'Q'. So would JB.