As someone with an autopilot Model S I can confirm we are much closer to autonomy than most of the public thinks we are. The Tesla system with a single camera is astounding in terms of how bad the roads can be and yet the car still stays in its lane. Go read the post above this one and the Mobileye presentations. It also has been getting steadily more accurate over the 6 months since its release in successive new firmware releases.
All signs point to full-autonomy-capable hardware in the Model S 12 months or less from now.