Bolt EV EPA range = 238 miles combined!

[Breezy]

a charging network that is mostly non-existent today

That entirely depends on where you are. Light grey is 175-mile radius; dark grey is 90 miles.

 

[nwdiver]

But doesn't the typical Tesla driver stop to charge every 120-140 miles on road trips? I'm having a hard time understanding why you think 180 miles of range at 70 mph is such a tragic limitation for the Bolt EV.

I think you're putting words in his mouth. Saying that the Bolt will have a 180 mile range at 70 mph doesn't mean it's a tragic limitation for the Bolt. It's just saying that the Bolt will have a 180 mile range at 70....

 

[mhan00]

Quite confident, at $30k after credits. Look at the transaction prices Nissan had to accept to keep sales over 1000 a month.

Regarding Lyft So not a subsidiary, but they might as well be.

Frankly, IMO, if GM can only move 5,000 Bolts or less per year, that is a HUGE warning sign about Tesla as well. If an EV with 238 mile range can't move the needle with car buyers, then sustained demand for the III after the initial enthusiast deposits are fulfilled is called into question in a major way. Hell, a good portion of the 400k deposits would be in question as well, since those carry no obligation to follow through with an order and can be cancelled for a full refund.

If the demand for Bolts is as weak as you think it is, then I'd be very strongly inclined to unload most of my Tesla stock. 200 miles has long been the mythical range that has been touted as the point where EVs start to have mainstream appeal; if that's wrong then that isn't a good sign for Tesla or any company looking to bring EVs to market.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Given what we know today about the Bolt EV, it will certainly be less convenient than driving an S90D but I see no reason why the Bolt has to strictly be a city commuter car.

An occasional weekend getaway with a single charge during the day or a longer vacation drives with overnight charging and a couple of daytime charges seems entirely doable and not really that much more of a burden than the same trip in an S60 or X60.

It's really just an issue of charging station availability and I see a clear path to getting that infrastructure in place in the near future -- pretty quickly for folks in coastal areas where BEVs are already concentrated and not much later for the middle of the country.

The VW settlement would seem to supply plenty of funds to get the job done even if nobody else spent a dime on long-distance charging installations.

GM is the one that seems to be implying that it's an Urban vehicle, despite it's feasibility to go farther in certain areas. I think people living on the coasts (where most EVs are sold) have a skewed view of the practical use of the Bolt outside of a commuter vehicle. While the VW settlement will enhance the CCS network, eventually, it will still be a coastal implementation.

I realize there are a lot of people for whom the Bolt will be more than a "city car."

 

[nwdiver]

Frankly, IMO, if GM can only move 5,000 Bolts or less per year, that is a HUGE warning sign about Tesla as well. If an EV with 238 mile range can't move the needle with car buyers,

??? Because range is the #1 consideration when people buy a car? Over performance and cost and build quality and.... aesthetics?

 

[techmaven]

Seconds 200 - 400 of the US06 subtest of the EPA is a reasonable US normative driving cycle on the highway.

View attachment 194582

See how spiky the test is? That's simulating stop lights. It's basically a commute where you get out of your neighborhood, hop the highway in some moderate traffic, then get into the city. It's a fine test for what it does which is to simulate a 10 minute commute into a city. Of those 10 minutes, only about 55% of that is spent at highway speeds. And this is the high speed test. And of that 55%, hardly any of it was steady state. It's just not very representative of a Supercharger jump, which is the kind of situation where one wants to know the range since it matters a lot.

 

[Jeff N]

While the VW settlement will enhance the CCS network, eventually, it will still be a coastal implementation.

Why would that be?

With $2 billion dollars to spend on infrastructure, VW is going to be desperately looking for projects to fund pretty soon. They have to spend that money -- $500 million every 30 months. That's a boatload of cash! It's gotta go towards something.

I don't think they will be spending it on H2 fuel cell stations in the mid-west in the near future but I certainly do think they will be spending it on high speed interstate charging there.

 

[TexasEV]

See how spiky the test is? That's simulating stop lights. It's basically a commute where you get out of your neighborhood, hop the highway in some moderate traffic, then get into the city. It's a fine test for what it does which is to simulate a 10 minute commute into a city. Of those 10 minutes, only about 55% of that is spent at highway speeds. And this is the high speed test. And of that 55%, hardly any of it was steady state. It's just not very representative of a Supercharger jump, which is the kind of situation where one wants to know the range since it matters a lot.

That's the problem with the EPA range-- it seems designed to evaluate sub-100 mile range cars when city driving range mattered. That's not relevant for Tesla or for the Bolt. Now the only range that matters is highway range for long distance travel, as the cars have enough range to make it through the day in the city without having to stop to charge, and start the day with a full charge for people who charge at home overnight.

 

[McRat]

This assumes two things though: that you have access to a 50kW station (certainly not guaranteed), and that real world charging rates are similar to GM's expectations. I believe I have seen you compare real world testing of MS60 charging, to the expected numbers GM states...which doesn't seem to be an apples-to-apples comparison.

I think it's an oversight not to consider that the average Joe, when you include the current state of the CCS network, won't find issue with the practicalities of using the Bolt on the Hwy.

There are three 60kW CCS stations near my work. 2 miles, 3 miles, 9 miles. The nearest SC is 16 miles. But then again, I live in the middle of Southern California, the car capital of the world.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Why would that be?

With $2 billion dollars to spend on infrastructure, VW is going to be desperately looking for projects to fund pretty soon. They have to spend that money -- $500 million every 30 months. That's a boatload of cash! It's gotta go towards something.

I don't think they will be spending it on H2 fuel cell stations in the mid-west in the ear future but I certainly do think they will be spending it on high speed interstate charging there.

Sure, but VW has incentive to spend that money in markets it can take the most advantage of. I agree that the money should go much farther than adding stations to the coasts...but I see no motivation for them to move outside of the coasts initially.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

There are three 60kW CCS stations near my work. 2 miles, 3 miles, 9 miles. The nearest SC is 16 miles. But then again, I live in the middle of Southern California, the car capital of the world.

Sure, but that's because those CCS stations are designed for intracity travel, and the SC station intercity. There are probably more than 3 SC stalls, as well.

 

[Jeff N]

Sure, but VW has incentive to spend that money in markets it can take the most advantage of. I agree that the money should go much farther than adding stations to the coasts...but I see no motivation for them to move outside of the coasts initially.

VW needs to be able to say they have a national charging network as good as Tesla if only for advertising/marketing reasons. Plus, they are committed to spending such a shipload of money that they will quickly run out of things to spend it on if they limit themselves to the coastal areas....

The main danger I see is if EPA/CARB try to force them into squandering too much of it on expensive H2 fuel cell stations. EV advocates are going to have to be vigilant to make sure that doesn't happen.

 

[Neohippy]

Frankly, IMO, if GM can only move 5,000 Bolts or less per year, that is a HUGE warning sign about Tesla as well. If an EV with 238 mile range can't move the needle with car buyers, then sustained demand for the III after the initial enthusiast deposits are fulfilled is called into question in a major way. Hell, a good portion of the 400k deposits would be in question as well, since those carry no obligation to follow through with an order and can be cancelled for a full refund.

If the demand for Bolts is as weak as you think it is, then I'd be very strongly inclined to unload most of my Tesla stock. 200 miles has long been the mythical range that has been touted as the point where EVs start to have mainstream appeal; if that's wrong then that isn't a good sign for Tesla or any company looking to bring EVs to market.

The demand for the Bolt being weak has no indication on Tesla. The Bolt is ugly and unimpressive. The FACT of how many Model 3 reservations we made before anyone even saw the design shows the confidence in Tesla. I find it very hard to believe the same buyer of the Bolt would buy a Tesla.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

VW needs to be able to say they have a national charging network as good as Tesla if only for advertising/marketing reasons. Plus, they are committed to spending such a shipload of money that they will quickly run out of things to spend it on if they limit themselves to the coastal areas....

The main danger I see is if EPA/CARB try to force them into squandering too much of it on expensive H2 fuel cell stations. EV advocates are going to have to be vigilant to make sure that doesn't happen.

I agree that that is the direction VW should go, but since they don't have a vehicle that can utilize a system like that...I don't see the incentive. At least not initially. Plenty of charging stations need to go in elsewhere before a nationwide roll-out.

Yes, agreed, I just don't think there is much we can do to stop the H2 funding.

 

[SageBrush]

With $2 billion dollars to spend on infrastructure, VW is going to be desperately looking for projects to fund pretty soon. They have to spend that money -- $500 million every 30 months. That's a boatload of cash! It's gotta go towards something.

You do have to appreciate the irony though: Uber-repugnant VW might save the EV program of super-uber-repugnant GM.

 

[McRat]

Excellent.

238 EPA.

GMs dealers will be 100% behind it.

What could possibly go wrong?

I hate to admit this, but yesterday, after >3 years, my daughter's 2013 Volt threw a High Voltage System error code. This disables the charging system. And CRAP!!!! My 3 closest Chevy dealers closed years ago. So yesterday we had to drive nearly 20 miles (yeah, you can drive it when the EV system is wonky) to a dealer. There are 4 within 30 miles.

Dropped it off at 2pm yesterday, just got back 1 hr ago from picking it up. Less than 24 hrs to fix it.

The dealer didn't charge me a dime and they even washed it for her.

In the case Chevrolet, this is critical. They would be out of business if you had to drop the car off 100 miles away and not get it back for 2 weeks. Some brands aren't affected, but Chevrolet doesn't happen to be one of them.

If Bolt owners have a different dealer experience, I'll be stunned. The Volts aren't our only GMs, and service has been rare and top rung.

 

[mhan00]

??? Because range is the #1 consideration when people buy a car? Over performance and cost and build quality and.... aesthetics?

For EVs? Yes. That's long been the sticking point that people have pointed to. Performance, cost, build quality, well, there are ICE cars that run the entire gamut. Build quality also probably isn't something you'd tout for Tesla, given their very real problems in that area. Aesthetics is a subjective thing, and given the growing popularity of crossovers and hatchbacks, a lot of people value utility over aesthetics.

For EVs, the big question has been about range. That was the first question people asked me about my Leaf. There is a very real mental barrier for EVs that has to be overcome. If a 238 mile range vehicle can't overcome that barrier, then sustained demand for the III has to be called into question. The 400k "preorders" with fully refundable deposits might just be EV enthusiasts who couldn't approach the 70k entry point of the S, and if that's true and the mainstream buyer who couldn't give two craps about how their car is propelled isn't persuaded by a 238 mile range vehicle, then it's hard to see how Tesla will maintain demand year after year.

The Bolt looks to be a very good car. Excellent range, good utility with easy ingress and egress and good storage space, and some nice tech and safety features (though the lack of TACC so far would be a huge negative, IMO).

 

[nwdiver]

If Bolt owners have a different dealer experience, I'll be stunned.

The concern isn't that dealers won't support the EVs they sell. It's that they won't support the sale of EVs....

 

[McRat]

Sure, but that's because those CCS stations are designed for intracity travel, and the SC station intercity. There are probably more than 3 SC stalls, as well.

Actually, it's the intersection of the 91 and 15 Freeways. The 91 feeds the traffic between LA and San Berdo, and the 15 feeds San Diego to Las Vegas.

It's a very logical place to put DCFC. Why there isn't an SC is puzzling since it's smack in the middle of SoCal traffic.

 

[nwdiver]

For EVs? Yes. That's long been the sticking point that people have pointed to.

The Bolt looks to be a very good car. Excellent range, good utility with easy ingress and egress and good storage space, and some nice tech and safety features (though the lack of TACC so far would be a huge negative, IMO).

You can't check 1 box and ignore the others. I hope the Bolt does sell well... my point was that if it doesn't that's not an indictment of ~200 mile range EVs.... it's an indictment of the Bolt.