BUY FSD TODAY!

[Knightshade]

The HW 2.5 is baked in...

The HW 3.0 is in the price of FSD. $3k or $3k+ the only difference is labor.

This is pretty obviously wrong.

The 3k price for FSD was the same 3k long before HW3 existed- so it clearly can't can't the HW price of 3 baked into it.

Unless Elon has a time machine.

Do you think Elon has a time machine?

Scenario 1: Tesla is out the labor. (HW3 chip is already paid for in FSD pre-order)

It's not though- because they didn't raise the price for pre-order when they realized they need more HW.

This is, again, the most likely reason they STOPPED THE PREORDERS AT 3K.

Because they didn't want to keep eating the HW (and labor) cost of the upgrade.

An article on electrek suggests that "Drive on NAV" just means that the car will suggest what lane you should be in. Google Maps already does this. I had to take the Prius to Seattle yesterday to be shipped to Maui, and Google Maps on my phone was telling me what lane I had to be in. (I would not have reached my destination otherwise. Thank you Google!)

I don't consider this to be an "FSD" feature.[?QUOTE]

nobody ever did.

Nor did they consider the real drive on nav, which makes gives you the option of suggesting changes, or making them for you, to be FSD.

Because both are explicitly promised as part of EAP.

 

[JeffK]

The 3k price for FSD was the same 3k long before HW3 existed- so it clearly can't can't the HW price of 3 baked into it.

Not true.

If you paid for it then you paid for it.
If you haven't paid for it then you haven't paid for it. If you haven't bought FSD then you haven't paid the $3K but you've paid for HW 2.5 already.

Plus, if you read Elon's quote, you'd know that this was planned all along. Chip development on HW 3 started well before HW 2.0 was ever announced (back when Jim Keller and Pete Bannon were hired).

Remember at the end of the day, $5000 + $3000 is just for software, the hardware is already paid for in the base price of the car since it's in every car. They can always use less than half of the $3k for the new hardware. It'd cover the cost of the hardware, labor, and they'd still make a profit.

Right this second, that $3000 is paying for absolutely nothing, no extra enabled software, and certainly not any additional hardware. It's going to be paying for the future hardware upgrade.

 

[MarkS22]

Make no mistake the consumer is paying for hardware twice. Either way Hardware 2.5 will still be going into cars. People will demand to be able to upgrade later whether FSD is available to pre-purchase or not.

Eliminating FSD from being available for purchase doesn't solve a double hardware problem.

I'm suggesting it will return at the time of purchase once HW3 is being installed on the line. Hence, no double paying for hardware or the time required by service to swap. When someone with HW2.5 needs to swap, they can get a higher "after purchase" price to make up for the hardware/install.

Simply, there's no need to take the lower money for FSD from a consumer knowing the margins will be eaten by service and redundant hardware. It's also possible they discovered they'll need some other sensor upgrades more recently. Another radar or updated cameras?

 

[MarkS22]

Not sure why they need it from employees. I bet the public would donate their data in a heart beat. The labeling is probably the bottle neck.

Legal/liability? The ability to bring the cars in to engineering more easily? Perhaps some level of personal training on-site before and during?

 

[JeffK]

It's also possible they discovered they'll need some other sensor upgrades more recently. Another radar or updated cameras?

Part of me is hoping for this and that at my $3000 I'll be locked in for the retrofit. Give me corner facing radars!

 

[MarkS22]

Part of me is hoping for this and that at my $3000 I'll be locked in for the retrofit. Give me corner facing radars!

You and me both. My Ford Fusion had them. I'm not sure how it'll handle cross traffic while backing out of a parking space without them. The rear-view camera is okay, but not nearly as good as corner radars. Or, are you concerned with vehicles approaching in adjacent lanes?

 

[Knightshade]

Not true.

If you paid for it then you paid for it.
If you haven't paid for it then you haven't paid for it. If you haven't bought FSD then you haven't paid the $3K but you've paid for HW 2.5 already.

You're not making any sense here.

If you prepaid 3k in, say, 2017, you paid for FSD with the 2.x hardware that was already coming in the car.

TODAY Tesla now knows they need to swap HW3 in there. For free if you prepaid.

That is COSTING TESLA MONEY compared to what they originally got the 3k for- both HW AND labor cost to do the upgrade.


Where specifically are you getting lost on the math there?

By stopping presale of FSD they avoid now costing themselves "free" HW AND LABOR upgrades for 2.5 cars- by resuming sales of FSD only after HW3 is built into new cars (and charing more for 2.x cars adding it after the fact) they pass that cost to the consumer, instead of absorbing it on themselves as they MUST do for people who already pre-purchased FSD.

Remember at the end of the day, $5000 + $3000 is just for software, the hardware is already paid for in the base price of the car since it's in every car. They can always use less than half of the $3k for the new hardware. It'd cover the cost of the hardware, labor, and they'd still make a profit.

but they'd make less profit than without needing to pay for the HW themselves (and your assumption there's enough left for a profit assumes a development cost at/near $0, which is obviously untrue)

Hence it costs them money to replace that HW at their own expense- because that's how math works.


Again- If Customer A prebought FSD on a 2.5 car, and Customer B does not prebuy and adds it later to his 2.5 car and Tesla charges that guy for the upgrade. Customer A cost Tesla more than Customer B.

Hence it makes sense to stop preselling FSD until all cars come with HW3 from the factory because that measurably saves Tesla money on both labor AND hardware.

Right this second, that $3000 is paying for absolutely nothing

I should very much like to hire these AI and chip design engineers who work for free you seem to know about.

Because in the end, their development costs will have to be offset with FSD revenue to see if there's actually any profit left at all.

 

[JeffK]

If you prepaid 3k in, say, 2017, you paid for FSD with the 2.x hardware that was already coming in the car.

No, since the price of the hardware is included in the car... the $3k has nothing to do with the hardware 2.5 cost. Same hardware is in every model whether you buy FSD, EAP, or nothing at all.

less profit is true, but like I said they are going to charge $4-5K for the retrofit either way and for people buying it after purchase they'll make identical profit since everyone has HW 2.5.

As far as it costing them more money to install the new hardware. It's a trivial modification and was designed that way. Likely be a 30 minute exchange. Again the hardware will have already been paid for by the $3000. The only money they'd be losing is charging people extra beyond $3K.

For every FSD they don't sell they lose potentially $3K. So, in the short term, not selling FSD is costing them more money than selling it. These people who can't purchase it now are still going to have HW 2.5 that needs to be swapped out. They will just end up having to pay anywhere from $3-5K later for the same amount of labor.

In sum, we all pay the $3k if we want FSD. Some will pay the after purchase penalty. The hardware cost to Tesla for all HW 2.5 cars is the same regardless if the owner purchases FSD at purchase or if they get it later with a retrofit.

If you're talking the cost vs a HW3 native car then that's totally different, but the people who purchase right now are not getting a HW3 car and they will want a retrofit.

 

[JeffK]

You and me both. My Ford Fusion had them. I'm not sure how it'll handle cross traffic while backing out of a parking space without them. The rear-view camera is okay, but not nearly as good as corner radars. Or, are you concerned with vehicles approaching in adjacent lanes?

All the lanes, I'd like corner radars in all corners. I'd also like if I'm at a stoplight and it turns green the cameras and corner radar should be able to tell if someone is running a red light and to wait. Waymo's demos do this already.

 

[Knightshade]

No, since the price of the hardware is included in the car... the $3k has nothing to do with the hardware 2.5 cost.

I didn't say otherwise.

I said the 3k paid for the FSD features using the HW the car already came with

It didn't include HW upgrades- because Tesla explicitly said the car would not need any for FSD.

less profit is true

Yes, yes it is.

That's why they stopped preselling it at 3k now.

because it costs them more money to do that now since they'd have to provide the free HW upgrade- both parts and labor coming out of Teslas pocket.

That was the entire point against which you seemed to keep arguing.

, but like I said they are going to charge $4-5K for the retrofit either way

Except they're not doing that for anyone who pre-purchased for 3k. Hence why they've stopped offering that option.

So, in the short term, not selling FSD is costing them more money than selling it.

No, it's not, unless you're saying people would buy it now who won' t buy it later. Or unless they've found the costs high enough that it's not worth selling it for 3k with the HW upgrade required to capture the few sales to whom that applies.

In sum, we all pay the $3k if we want FSD. Some will pay the after purchase penalty. The hardware cost to Tesla for all HW 2.5 cars is the same regardless if the owner purchases FSD at purchase or if they get it later with a retrofit.

I thought we'd gotten past this where you admitted they would make less money off the 3k "free" upgrades than the post-purchase NOT free ones?

The cost for 2.5 HW is the same, it comes with the car.

The cost to upgrade to 3 is not the same

People who pre-purchased FSD get both parts and labor for free.

People who post-purchase FSD after this sales-suspension is over don't get those things for free. They will pay additional cost beyond the core FSD post-purchase price for the parts and labor to retrofit their cars.

 

[ras2645]

Not true.

If you paid for it then you paid for it.
If you haven't paid for it then you haven't paid for it. If you haven't bought FSD then you haven't paid the $3K but you've paid for HW 2.5 already.

Plus, if you read Elon's quote, you'd know that this was planned all along. Chip development on HW 3 started well before HW 2.0 was ever announced (back when Jim Keller and Pete Bannon were hired).

Remember at the end of the day, $5000 + $3000 is just for software, the hardware is already paid for in the base price of the car since it's in every car. They can always use less than half of the $3k for the new hardware. It'd cover the cost of the hardware, labor, and they'd still make a profit.

Right this second, that $3000 is paying for absolutely nothing, no extra enabled software, and certainly not any additional hardware. It's going to be paying for the future hardware upgrade.

Musk did say that only people that ordered FSD will get the upgraded computer, its only needed for FSD, not Autopilot.

 

[Garlan Garner]

An article on electrek suggests that "Drive on NAV" just means that the car will suggest what lane you should be in. Google Maps already does this. I had to take the Prius to Seattle yesterday to be shipped to Maui, and Google Maps on my phone was telling me what lane I had to be in. (I would not have reached my destination otherwise. Thank you Google!)

I don't consider this to be an "FSD" feature.

If the car could make the needed lane changes itself without the driver's having to act at all, this would be a big step forward. But note that within the confines of Level 2, where I am ultimately responsible for monitoring the road and assuring that the car is operating safely, I do not want the car making lane changes without my initiating them. Driving in a lane and maintaining adequate distance from the car ahead works as an L2 feature because I can monitor the car's behavior. But I do not make a lane change (or initiate an auto lane change) without first checking that it can be done safely. The car should not be making lane changes entirely on its own until that feature can be performed with Level 3 reliability. That is, when the car does not need my eyes on the maneuver, it's ready to have that feature. As long as my eyes are needed (L2) it should not initiate lane changes because I am not constantly monitoring my blind spots.

I consider Drive-on-nav to be FSD more than it is EAP

 

[Garlan Garner]

Musk did say that only people that ordered FSD will get the upgraded computer, its only needed for FSD, not Autopilot.

Must said that only people that ordered FSD will bet the upgraded computer " FOR FREE".

 

[ras2645]

Must said that only people that ordered FSD will bet the upgraded computer " FOR FREE".

Yes, and that it would be in future cars in about 6 months. To me it sounds like If you haven't ordered FSD you'll be paying extra for it as an upgrade. By definition this is a hardware up grade, am I wrong?

 

[JeffK]

To me it sounds like If you haven't ordered FSD you'll be paying extra for it as an upgrade.

This has always been the case though through the entire life of EAP and FSD. Upgrade after purchase will cost you more.

 

[JeffK]

I said the 3k paid for the FSD features using the HW the car already came with

It didn't include HW upgrades- because Tesla explicitly said the car would not need any for FSD.

No, Not only did you not get to use that hardware for the purposes of FSD yet, but Tesla did mention it was possible they might need a future upgrade. Here's something from back in 2017:
Tesla could upgrade customer computers to meet self-driving requirements

because it costs them more money to do that now since they'd have to provide the free HW upgrade- both parts and labor coming out of Teslas pocket.

No, it was never free. People who bought FSD already purchased the future hardware through their interest free loan to Tesla for FSD. This hardware was already paid for by the consumer. They paid for HW 2.5 in the base price of the car and they paid an additional $3k for anything needed for FSD.

Unless you're saying people would buy it now who won' t buy it later.

This could definitely be the case, especially if the price is higher.

The cost for 2.5 HW is the same, it comes with the car.

The cost to upgrade to 3 is not the same

People who pre-purchased FSD get both parts and labor for free.

Then what did their $3000 beyond EAP buy? Nothing at all? The parts were never free and as far as labor, here's a quote from Elon in 2017:

But for customers that have purchased the full autonomy option, if it does turn out that it requires computer upgrade for full autonomy, we will replace their computer — it’s just a matter of unplug the old computer, plug the new one in.

Sounds super simple.

 

[crackers8199]

No, Not only did you not get to use that hardware for the purposes of FSD yet, but Tesla did mention it was possible they might need a future upgrade.

this is just not true. at all. they clearly advertised from the time the model 3 was introduced that all teslas produced from that point forward had all hardware needed to be fully autonomous. he said it at the model 3 reveal event.

 

[JeffK]

this is just not true. at all. they clearly advertised from the time the model 3 was introduced that all teslas produced from that point forward had all hardware needed to be fully autonomous. he said it at the model 3 reveal event.

Did you personally use the hardware for actual full self driving? You have the hardware but no person outside of Tesla has used it with FSD.

If you've already paid $3k then, to date, you've received nothing for it.

 

[crackers8199]

Did you personally use the hardware for actual full self driving? You have the hardware but no person outside of Tesla has used it with FSD.

i'm not sure what you're getting at. he said that all teslas produced from that point had all the hardware they needed to be fully autonomous. whether or not anyone was able to use it yet is irrelevant. he said nothing about there being a potential upgrade needed. even as of when i took delivery of my car on 7/30, they were still pushing the idea that they had all the hardware needed for FSD.

 

[JeffK]

i'm not sure what you're getting at. he said that all teslas produced from that point had all the hardware they needed to be fully autonomous. whether or not anyone was able to use it yet is irrelevant. he said nothing about there being a potential upgrade needed. even as of when i took delivery of my car on 7/30, they were still pushing the idea that they had all the hardware needed for FSD.

Potential upgrade has been discussed since 2017 as I've linked to. Everyone gets the hardware, it's in the base price of the car. However, those who want FSD paid an extra $3k and have not received anything for it. I'm saying that $3k pays for the HW 3.0 upgrade.