BUY FSD TODAY!

[Garlan Garner]

Just to be clear everyone...…

I'm not even talking about Tesla being late.

I'm talking about things changing. Just off of the top of my head I presented a list above of things that have changed after they rolled out.

________________________________________

EAP = FSD level 2


IMO EAP will go away ( by default ) once FSD level 3/4 begins its journey.

_________________________________________



Level 0 _ No Automation
System capability: None. • Driver involvement: The human at the wheel steers, brakes, accelerates, and negotiates traffic. • Examples: A 1967 Porsche 911, a 2018 Kia Rio.

Level 1 _ Driver Assistance
System capability: Under certain conditions, the car controls either the steering or the vehicle speed, but not both simultaneously. • Driver involvement: The driver performs all other aspects of driving and has full responsibility for monitoring the road and taking over if the assistance system fails to act appropriately. • Example: Adaptive cruise control.

Level 2 _ Partial Automation
System capability: The car can steer, accelerate, and brake in certain circumstances. • Driver involvement: Tactical maneuvers such as responding to traffic signals or changing lanes largely fall to the driver, as does scanning for hazards. The driver may have to keep a hand on the wheel as a proxy for paying attention. • Examples: Audi Traffic Jam Assist, Cadillac Super Cruise, Mercedes-Benz Driver Assistance Systems, Tesla Autopilot, Volvo Pilot Assist.

Level 3 _ Conditional Automation
System capability: In the right conditions, the car can manage most aspects of driving, including monitoring the environment. The system prompts the driver to intervene when it encounters a scenario it can’t navigate. • Driver involvement: The driver must be available to take over at any time. • Example: Audi Traffic Jam Pilot.

Level 4 _ High Automation
System capability: The car can operate without human input or oversight but only under select conditions defined by factors such as road type or geographic area. • Driver involvement: In a shared car restricted to a defined area, there may not be any. But in a privately owned Level 4 car, the driver might manage all driving duties on surface streets then become a passenger as the car enters a highway. • Example: Google’s now-defunct Firefly pod-car prototype, which had neither pedals nor a steering wheel and was restricted to a top speed of 25 mph.

Level 5 _ Full Automation
System capability: The driverless car can operate on any road and in any conditions a human driver could negotiate. • Driver involvement: Entering a destination. • Example: None yet, but Waymo—formerly Google’s driverless-car project—is now using a fleet of 600 Chrysler Pacifica hybrids to develop its Level 5 tech for production.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Audi claims its the first with Level 3 automation......and we are discussing Tesla's EAP features? I don't want Teslas FSD to be in competition with Teslas EAP. I want Tesla's FSD to beat other car manufactures FSD's.

We Let the 2019 Audi A8 Drive Itself with Traffic Jam Pilot | News | Car and Driver


I'm not fearful that Tesla is on the verge of being left behind concerning automation.....but we should do what we can to help push Teslas FSD.

I know that cost is a huge hurdle for some for the price of Teslas FSD and I'm not trying to ignore that. However - I believe that each FSD level is going to be expensive to engineer/develop/test/rollout/insure/etc. on Tesla's part.

I'm pulling for Tesla with all that I have. I don't like seeing Audi make claims that their "Traffic Jam Pilot" system allows for people to Text and/or check their twitter account and not have to pay attention to the road....with Tesla still on EAP features.

Come On Tesla...….. Lets "get-er-dun"

 

[Daniel in SD]

No....Tesla's website is beyond the term "can change". Tesla's website is ever changing.

I would almost bet my P3D+ that their website WON'T be the same in a month.

Something is going to change about existing features or supercharging or something. AND I think that's great.


Hmmmm….let me think. Air Conditioned seats in the Model S...went away....came back....went away....came back.

Color choices of the model 3?

Air suspension?

Unlimited lifetime Supercharging? $100 credit for supercharging?

Referral prizes?

First time line waiter gifts.....


But who's counting? lol

I was also going to include my P3D+ badging and spoiler....but.....I suppose it hasn't been enough time yet for that to not come about.

But would they really charge for drive-on-nav and then try to get you to pay for it a second time?

 

[Garlan Garner]

But would they really charge for drive-on-nav and then try to get you to pay for it a second time?

I can't imagine a scenario where they would charge twice for whatever "it" is.

 

[Abstrakt1]

But would they really charge for drive-on-nav and then try to get you to pay for it a second time?

I think it will stay an Autopilot feature, they are pretty good at protecting customer loyalty. Switching now would cause too much outrage. But anything after that will only be for FSD buyers.

I am one of those that believe that pulling FSD was about cost. Tesla knows they need to retrofit hardware on all current FSD. Plus they need to spend on the software to get it to the next level. I think they put the brakes on the 3k package while they figure out the true value and costs. I don’t expect true cross country no driver FSD during the life of my model 3 but I am confident we will get some cool stuff out of the 3k.

 

[mswlogo]

I think it will stay an Autopilot feature, they are pretty good at protecting customer loyalty. Switching now would cause too much outrage. But anything after that will only be for FSD buyers.

I am one of those that believe that pulling FSD was about cost. Tesla knows they need to retrofit hardware on all current FSD. Plus they need to spend on the software to get it to the next level. I think they put the brakes on the 3k package while they figure out the true value and costs. I don’t expect true cross country no driver FSD during the life of my model 3 but I am confident we will get some cool stuff out of the 3k.

That's exactly the way I look at it. I hope that the "cool stuff" might cover some specially labeled stretches of road that it might legally go hands free. But if it doesn't I can live with that for $3k. I do expect something for it.

After watching this Video I much better understand some of Tesla's choices and where they are going. $3K was a ticket to be part of it. How ever far it gets with this car or in our driving careers.

 

[MarkS22]

I think it will stay an Autopilot feature, they are pretty good at protecting customer loyalty. Switching now would cause too much outrage. But anything after that will only be for FSD buyers.

I am one of those that believe that pulling FSD was about cost. Tesla knows they need to retrofit hardware on all current FSD. Plus they need to spend on the software to get it to the next level. I think they put the brakes on the 3k package while they figure out the true value and costs. I don’t expect true cross country no driver FSD during the life of my model 3 but I am confident we will get some cool stuff out of the 3k.

Yeah, I think we're overthinking it. If they continue to sell FSD openly, they will have to deliver the HW 2.5 now and then HW 3.0 next year. That means they're taking back all that HW 2.5 hardware, which will be pretty useless at that point. It's best to just start offering it when HW 3.0 is ready.

This solves a few problems: Tesla is not double-paying for hardware, consumers will not have false expectations, and they'll get more money from consumers later ($4k+ instead of $3k).

For what it's worth, I think true FSD (Level 4 or 5) is years away but we will see the first FSD-dedicated features next year. By that, I mean a Level 3 feature like Audi's traffic assist or a significantly enhanced Summon that can go around corners. It won't be all or nothing.

 

[djgarrett21]

That's exactly the way I look at it. I hope that the "cool stuff" might cover some specially labeled stretches of road that it might legally go hands free. But if it doesn't I can live with that for $3k. I do expect something for it.

After watching this Video I much better understand some of Tesla's choices and where they are going. $3K was a ticket to be part of it. How ever far it gets with this car or in our driving careers.

Very interesting video. It gives a glimpse into their approach and some hints as to where they currently are with AI and FSD, which appears to be a long ways off.

 

[JeffK]

Tesla is not double-paying for hardware

Make no mistake the consumer is paying for hardware twice. Either way Hardware 2.5 will still be going into cars. People will demand to be able to upgrade later whether FSD is available to pre-purchase or not.

Eliminating FSD from being available for purchase doesn't solve a double hardware problem.

 

[mswlogo]

Very interesting video. It gives a glimpse into their approach and some hints as to where they currently are with AI and FSD, which appears to be a long ways off.

Doesn’t seem a long way off to me. If V9 is based on this newer approach and doing as well as it is. All they need is a bigger processor, data (from those 100 employees). Not sure why they need it from employees. I bet the public would donate their data in a heart beat. The labeling is probably the bottle neck.

I think once new processors are out their. Progress will happen fast.

 

[JeffK]

Not sure why they need it from employees.

Much of the public is already donating their data. In Europe they actually have to opt-in but it's on by default in the US.

The employees are going to have the full self driving software enabled and are to provide feedback likely under NDA. Is it awesome, is it a deathtrap, etc. So not just data, but actual feedback.

 

[Knightshade]

Make no mistake the consumer is paying for hardware twice. Either way Hardware 2.5 will still be going into cars. People will demand to be able to upgrade later whether FSD is available to pre-purchase or not.

Eliminating FSD from being available for purchase doesn't solve a double hardware problem.

Of course it does.

People who pre-buy at 3k get the 2nd set of HW at Teslas cost.

People who can't do that, and will have to post-pay an amount greater than 3k, will get the 2nd set of HW at customer cost.

That's a significant motivation for Tesla to stop allowing the 3k pre-buy while still shipping 2.5 hardware- which they have.

 

[JeffK]

Of course it does.

People who pre-buy at 3k get the 2nd set of HW at Teslas cost.

People who can't do that, and will have to post-pay an amount greater than 3k, will get the 2nd set of HW at customer cost.

That's a significant motivation for Tesla to stop allowing the 3k pre-buy while still shipping 2.5 hardware- which they have.

The customer pays $3k or $3k+ either way. There's no additional cost on Tesla's part besides labor. Plus there's the fact that the hardware itself is baked in to the base price of the car.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I am quite happy with my Model 3 FSD purchase earlier this year. Looking forward to the release of the new FSD chip in 2019.

It is a wild, unpredictable world we live in.

If this 'chip' was all it took to achieve FSD as promised, they would continue to offer FSD.

 

[JeffK]

If this 'chip' was all it took to achieve FSD as promised, they would continue to offer FSD.

By offering it, for better or worse, it's caused many people to think Tesla's are all currently full self driving.

 

[Knightshade]

The customer pays $3k or $3k+ either way. There's no additional cost on Tesla's part besides labor. Plus there's the fact that the hardware itself is baked in to the base price of the car.

... what?

The UPGRADE hw is not baked into the price of the car.

Nor the labor.


Here's the math:


Person A buys a car for 50k, and adds EAP and FSD for 8k more. He paid 58k. He got 2.5 HW.

In 6 months Tesla, entirely at Teslas expense, pays $X HW3 chip and $Y for the labor to swap it, and the 2.5 chip likely goes in the trash.

Tesla is "out" $X and $Y. But has the 3k from FSD.


Person B buys a car for 50k and adds only EAP for 5k more. He paid 55k He got 2.5 HW.

In 6 months Tesla COULD offer him the ability to add FSD again- at a cost of, at least, 3k PLUS the cost of the HW3 chip and the labor to swap it. Likely more since they like to charge more post-sale anyway.

Tesla is "out" nothing at all to upgrade that guy. Saving $X and $Y compared to person A. And likely got more than 3k AFTER covering those costs from the FSD sale too.

 

[daniel]

An article on electrek suggests that "Drive on NAV" just means that the car will suggest what lane you should be in. Google Maps already does this. I had to take the Prius to Seattle yesterday to be shipped to Maui, and Google Maps on my phone was telling me what lane I had to be in. (I would not have reached my destination otherwise. Thank you Google!)

I don't consider this to be an "FSD" feature.

If the car could make the needed lane changes itself without the driver's having to act at all, this would be a big step forward. But note that within the confines of Level 2, where I am ultimately responsible for monitoring the road and assuring that the car is operating safely, I do not want the car making lane changes without my initiating them. Driving in a lane and maintaining adequate distance from the car ahead works as an L2 feature because I can monitor the car's behavior. But I do not make a lane change (or initiate an auto lane change) without first checking that it can be done safely. The car should not be making lane changes entirely on its own until that feature can be performed with Level 3 reliability. That is, when the car does not need my eyes on the maneuver, it's ready to have that feature. As long as my eyes are needed (L2) it should not initiate lane changes because I am not constantly monitoring my blind spots.

 

[JeffK]

... what?

The UPGRADE hw is not baked into the price of the car.

Nor the labor.

The HW 2.5 is baked in...

The HW 3.0 is in the price of FSD. $3k or $3k+ the only difference is labor.

Scenario 1: Tesla is out the labor. (HW3 chip is already paid for in FSD pre-order)

Scenario 2: Tesla may or may not be out the labor... in either case the hardware cost is paid by the consumer.

Keep in mind HW3 costs about the same as HW2.5 per Elon, and analysts suggest price of Drive PX2 is $1000-$1500 but Tesla isn't using the whole Drive PX2 architecture in their custom HW 2.5 boards.

And it costs the same as our current hardware and we anticipate that this would have to be replaced, this replacement, which is why we made it easy to switch out the computer, and that's all that needs to be done. If we take out one computer and plug in the next. That's it. All the connectors are compatible and you get an order of magnitude, more processing and you can run all the cameras at primary full resolution with the complex neural net. So it's super kick-ass.

 

[Barklikeadog]

By offering it, for better or worse, it's caused many people to think Tesla's are all currently full self driving.

Maybe they shouldn't have proudly displayed on their website: All necessary hardware is installed for FSD.
All this does is give the 'overpromising' critics ammunition. 400,000 people will still buy the car even if it will never
drive across the country and pick them up.

 

[JeffK]

Maybe they shouldn't have proudly displayed on their website: All necessary hardware is installed for FSD.
All this does is give the 'overpromising' critics ammunition. 400,000 people will still buy the car even if it will never
drive across the country and pick them up.

True, they've corrected it for now and will probably comment on it tomorrow afternoon.