"Car market literally down to 2 cars today"

[MassModel3]

...
And before one thinks it will be different next year or the one after that, there's all the stuff Tesla is so aggressive about, like the supercharger network, the futuristic screen and firmware updates stuff that makes it harder to believe others can follow suit so fast... and the fact that they have Elon Musk who is more Steve Jobs than Jobs ever was (well, maybe not quite as good a performer). Getting some other electric car, let alone just a plug-in hybrid wouldn't feel at all the same. I have a hard time believing other car-makers could get this futuristic within the next year or two. In a decade? Sure. Especially with Tesla working with so many companies to advance the general adoption of the electric car. But next few years seem Tesla's. Tesla is like the iPhone in 2007. It immediately made everyone else seem archaic and it took years for others to catch up. Sure, eventually they will, but today it seems like a long way off.
...

That's a really interesting correlation. Steve Jobs and Apple really hit the bulls-eye with the iPhone, and Jobs was one hell of a salesman. Maybe one of the best ever. Me? I'm an Android fan. But no matter how many great Android phones are out there, most iPhone users are die hards and will never, ever switch. They drank the Kool-Aid in abundance. Even with the recent iPhone 6, some of the top selling points have long been available on Android, but Apple made people want them.

So my question is this -- for Tesla owners who are currently seeing themselves as Tesla owners for life, what if there were really equal choices from other manufacturers? Would you still be Tesla for life or willing to change? Personally, I'm in the Tesla for life category. Well, I think so, anyway. For now...

 

[EchoDelta]

Someone call the CDC.

Good point. I'll add a reporting code code for "Tesla Grin" in the NEDSS. Now the challenge is for facilities to diagnose it.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

That's a really interesting correlation. Steve Jobs and Apple really hit the bulls-eye with the iPhone, and Jobs was one hell of a salesman. Maybe one of the best ever. Me? I'm an Android fan. But no matter how many great Android phones are out there, most iPhone users are die hards and will never, ever switch. They drank the Kool-Aid in abundance. Even with the recent iPhone 6, some of the top selling points have long been available on Android, but Apple made people want them.

So my question is this -- for Tesla owners who are currently seeing themselves as Tesla owners for life, what if there were really equal choices from other manufacturers? Tesla for life or willing to change? Personally, I'm in the Tesla for life category. Well, I think so, anyway. For now...

I would definitely place Tesla, as things currently stand, in the "for something" category. My personal allegiances and feelings have shifted dramatically in Tesla's favor, so much so that I see the competition as antiquated and my previous favorites as irrelevant. But I think, realistically, I'm experienced enough (but not yet old enough) to acknowledge there is a difference between "for life" and "for a long time". I would expect to be in the Tesla camp for a long time, but of course given a long-enough time, say 10-15 years, enough can become different to change that. Maybe one day there will be a new "Tesla moment" by someone else.

But even this is a great accomplishment from a newcomer like Tesla. And, who knows, it can certainly lead into a life-long partnership. I wouldn't mind.

 

[jerry33]

So my question is this -- for Tesla owners who are currently seeing themselves as Tesla owners for life, what if there were really equal choices from other manufacturers? Would you still be Tesla for life or willing to change? Personally, I'm in the Tesla for life category. Well, I think so, anyway. For now...

If I didn't have to purchase through a dealer and if the car had more range (means 2x or 3x), then I'd switch. If the car only had more range, I'd think about it but the dealer experience is so awful I really don't want to every buy from a dealer again.

 

[TES-E]

I'm in the 'For Life' category. Innovation like this deserves to be rewarded. I don't expect to see anything this significant in the automotive sector in the remainder of my lifetime. I hope I'm wrong. Either way, I'll stick with Tesla.

 

[SebastianR]

"People don't buy what you do; they buy why you do it. And what you do simply proves what you believe"

Simon Sinek - listen to the TED talk here: Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action | Talk Video | TED.com

(and that's why I don't like Audi any longer: they talk about Vorsprung durch Technik but that's not true. By not investing in BEVs in a credible manner, they betray their core aspiration and the ambition is just empty marketing gibberish now. I still own an Audi but I won't buy Audi in future anymore.)

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I'm in the 'For Life' category. Innovation like this deserves to be rewarded. I don't expect to see anything this significant in the automotive sector in the remainder of my lifetime. I hope I'm wrong. Either way, I'll stick with Tesla.

(and that's why I don't like Audi any longer: they talk about Vorsprung durch Technik but that's not true. By not investing in BEVs in a credible manner, they betray their core aspiration and the ambition is just empty marketing gibberish now. I still own an Audi but I won't buy Audi in future anymore.)

Good points TES-E ja SebastianR. TES-E's comment nudged me towards the Tesla for life camp, because rewarding such innovation is so true.

And indeed, what Tesla is doing, is the real Vorsprung durch Technik today.

Sad, sad state of affairs to see where Audi is now. At least BMW and Mercedes are trying a little. Audi isn't even trying, they are trying to hedge their bets in the ugliest possible way. The Audi R8 e-tron could have been, if launched originally and followed by the Audi A1 e-tron the start of some... trying at least. Neither are nowhere to be seen.

Instead they canned the R8 e-tron (and when they launch it eventually, it will be just old hat), A1 e-tron wasn't even launched, and what we have is a pantsy plug-in hybrid of an A3 "e-tron" instead and some future plans they're trying to downplay, probably to slow down BEV adoption and maximize their ICE investment. In 2015.

Contrast this with what Tesla is doing. For Audi's progressive reputation, that's just sad. Just really sad. So the mighty have fallen. Where is that 1970s spirit that boldly took four-wheel drive from military applications and trucks and believed it would make a difference in a sedan. I guess the spirit is still stuck in the 1970s.

 

[chickensevil]

"People don't buy what you do; they buy why you do it. And what you do simply proves what you believe"

Simon Sinek - listen to the TED talk here: Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action | Talk Video | TED.com

(and that's why I don't like Audi any longer: they talk about Vorsprung durch Technik but that's not true. By not investing in BEVs in a credible manner, they betray their core aspiration and the ambition is just empty marketing gibberish now. I still own an Audi but I won't buy Audi in future anymore.)

This would be primarily why even if I ever would have chosen to buy an Apple product, I won't even consider it any longer. Once Steve Jobs heavily stepped out of the process (as his condition worsened) and especially after he died the company has been wholly taken over by the bean counters and there is no revolution/wow factor happening anymore.

If Tesla ever loses their core mission and focus then I would likely shift away from them as well. But for as long as I am both able to remain loyal (cars are quite a financial burden compared to phones and PCs) and the company keeps its mission and focus then I don't see a reason to falter.

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Good points TES-E ja SebastianR. TES-E's comment nudged me towards the Tesla for life camp, because rewarding such innovation is so true.

And indeed, what Tesla is doing, is the real Vorsprung durch Technik today.

Sad, sad state of affairs to see where Audi is now. At least BMW and Mercedes are trying a little. Audi isn't even trying, they are trying to hedge their bets in the ugliest possible way. The Audi R8 e-tron could have been, if launched originally and followed by the Audi A1 e-tron the start of some... trying at least. Neither are nowhere to be seen.

Instead they canned the R8 e-tron (and when they launch it eventually, it will be just old hat), A1 e-tron wasn't even launched, and what we have is a pantsy plug-in hybrid of an A3 "e-tron" instead and some future plans they're trying to downplay, probably to slow down BEV adoption and maximize their ICE investment. In 2015.

Contrast this with what Tesla is doing. For Audi's progressive reputation, that's just sad. Just really sad. So the mighty have fallen. Where is that 1970s spirit that boldly took four-wheel drive from military applications and trucks and believed it would make a difference in a sedan. I guess the spirit is still stuck in the 1970s.

Oh and with Audi not being their own company anymore, their mission is ultimately the mission of VW... so... yeah... until VW decides to go heavy into the BEV arena I wouldn't expect anything from their subsidiaries that would wow me or potentially harm the almighty market leader VW.

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And sadly the same could be said about the Porsche "EV" that they claim they are working on. VW is pushing into BEVs with the e-golf and they are finally the first to adopt the "Tesla interior" with their new Golf R Touch... but who knows how serious VW actually is about BEVs? I will believe it when I see a 200 mile car released by any of them.

 

[adiggs]

"People don't buy what you do; they buy why you do it. And what you do simply proves what you believe"

Simon Sinek - listen to the TED talk here: Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action | Talk Video | TED.com

(and that's why I don't like Audi any longer: they talk about Vorsprung durch Technik but that's not true. By not investing in BEVs in a credible manner, they betray their core aspiration and the ambition is just empty marketing gibberish now. I still own an Audi but I won't buy Audi in future anymore.)

Thanks for posting that TED talk SebastianR. That not only put into words what I've been thinking in the BEV space that we're talking about here, but other things I've been thinking and working on, but haven't previously had the words or mental model to articulate.

From an investing point of view, I'm starting to think that the #1 thing I'm watching for is "who follows Elon" in running Tesla, with the rest of it just noise.

 

[SebastianR]

Oh and with Audi not being their own company anymore, their mission is ultimately the mission of VW... so... yeah... until VW decides to go heavy into the BEV arena I wouldn't expect anything from their subsidiaries that would wow me or potentially harm the almighty market leader VW.

And sadly the same could be said about the Porsche "EV" that they claim they are working on. VW is pushing into BEVs with the e-golf and they are finally the first to adopt the "Tesla interior" with their new Golf R Touch... but who knows how serious VW actually is about BEVs? I will believe it when I see a 200 mile car released by any of them.

VW doesn't do EVs. They do "compliance" EVs so they can say they do them and their CEO Winterkorn infamously said that it is impossible to construct an EV with more than 200km(!) of range...

So the only reason to have any EVs / PHEVs is to say "see we did these cars and they didn't work" and/or to sell cars in CA. I once asked my old Audi dealer when he will have a Tesla competitor in form of an all-electric A6 available. He told me to buy the A3 eTron instead... I think experiences like this show, they clearly don't get it at all.

 

[chickensevil]

VW doesn't do EVs. They do "compliance" EVs so they can say they do them and their CEO Winterkorn infamously said that it is impossible to construct an EV with more than 200km(!) of range...

So the only reason to have any EVs / PHEVs is to say "see we did these cars and they didn't work" and/or to sell cars in CA. I once asked my old Audi dealer when he will have a Tesla competitor in form of an all-electric A6 available. He told me to buy the A3 eTron instead... I think experiences like this show, they clearly don't get it at all.

The e-golf should sell just as well (maybe better?) than the i3 or the Leaf because it is basically the same idea (83 miles of range, DC fast charge capable). What it has going in it's favor is that it looks like a standard golf (which most people like the look of the golf hatchback... as opposed to the crappy i3 design or the Leaf bug-eye look) and it has a really great amount of storage space (I think it is 10cu short of the Tesla capacity... which is saying something since this is a mid-size design.)

I actually really applaud them for getting an electric out on the same platform as the rest of their golf's and making it a perfect competitor to Nissan/BMW.

Obviously it isn't a Model S competitor or Model 3 (when it comes out) competitor... because no one is yet taking Tesla seriously. But I wouldn't call this a compliance car either.

 

[CmdrThor]

Obviously it isn't a Model S competitor or Model 3 (when it comes out) competitor... because no one is yet taking Tesla seriously. But I wouldn't call this a compliance car either.

The e-Golf is only available in limited states and therefore by definition is a compliance car.

 

[chickensevil]

I guess I didn't notice because I happen to live in one of the few parts of the country that is generally able to get these types of cars.

2015 Volkswagen e-Golf: Volkswagen Enters the Electric Car Game - Forbes

I link this article since I think it gives a pretty fair assessment of the car, even the author is not sure if their ability to shift what they are making is for demand purposes or to meet compliance and regulatory changes. Either way, the only major negative I see on the e-Golf is that it has an air-cooled battery like the Leaf. Outside of that, it seems like a decent commuter car and should do well for sales.

But even I don't know how serious they are about shifting toward BEVs. It could be for compliance... It could be for competition (i3 and Leaf)... It could be to test the waters to see about making a serious push into the space. Again, they have a TON of money to shift focus if they wanted... And that was all I was really trying to get at here. Clearly none of them are serious enough about it if they aren't going to make a 200 mile (heck I would even accept 150 mile) range car... 80 is just too little (Yes, I realize that the average person drive 50 miles or less a day, but when you factor in cold and other things that limit range, 80 miles won't get you very far...

 

[mwulff]

I'm in the Tesla-for-life camp until another manufacturer offers a compelling product that:

1. Has a supercharger network or can go 800-900 km on a single charge.
2. Has a fixed price all-parts-included service option.
3. All electric drivetrain
4. No Dealers to worry about.

Tesla's supercharger network is the trump-card and I don't see BMW, Mercedes, VW, Porsche, Lexus or Audi scrambling to build their own.

 

[cwerdna]

I haven't read this whole thread...

That's a fine first post. I will say I was perplexed at your thread's title - the use of the word "market". It led me to think something completely different. I think I would have chosen the word "choice".

But yes, exactly. Puzzled by the title... seems misleading.

The best selling vehicle in the US is the Ford F-Series truck (February 2015 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 271 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR and 2014 U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 280 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR). Last year, Ford sold 753K units in the US. If you want to exclude "light trucks" and only include cars, the best selling car in the US was the Camry, w/428K units sold in 2014.

The world's best selling EV, the Leaf moved 30.2K units in the US in the same time period. Model S cumulative US sales are around 37K, if I'm not mistaken. Leaf cumulative US sales OTOH have passed 75K units recently.

Per December 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com, the PHEV take rate in the US was 0.34% for 2014 and 0.39% for BEVs.

Clearly, there's a market for a LOT of other vehicles.
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The e-golf should sell just as well (maybe better?) than the i3 or the Leaf because it is basically the same idea (83 miles of range, DC fast charge capable). What it has going in it's favor is that it looks like a standard golf (which most people like the look of the golf hatchback... as opposed to the crappy i3 design or the Leaf bug-eye look) and it has a really great amount of storage space (I think it is 10cu short of the Tesla capacity... which is saying something since this is a mid-size design.)

I actually really applaud them for getting an electric out on the same platform as the rest of their golf's and making it a perfect competitor to Nissan/BMW.

So far, it's not against either. See sales figures at Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard. VW is not a large volume seller of vehicles in the US: December 2014: Pour Me A Fifth Edition.

I'm not sure who "most people like the look of the golf" is. I wouldn't buy a VW because they're not known for their reliability nor electrical system prowess. To buy an electric car from a company w/the latter?

Big downer for the e-Golf (and i3 and Spark EV) are the use of Combo1 flavor of SAE Combo DC FC. There's virtually none of the infrastructure in the US (most of it is in California) vs. the 934 CHAdeMO stations in the US (CHAdeMO Association).

I'm not sure who you're referring to when you say "mid-size" design. Compare Side-by-Side says the e-Golf is a compact car with less passenger and luggage volume than the mid-sized Leaf, which is already on the smaller side of midsize car (like the Prius lliftback).

The e-Golf is only available in limited states

Yep.

 

[adiggs]

I haven't read this whole thread...

But yes, exactly. Puzzled by the title... seems misleading.

The best selling vehicle in the US is the Ford F-Series truck (February 2015 YTD U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 271 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR and 2014 U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings - Top 280 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR). Last year, Ford sold 753K units in the US. If you want to exclude "light trucks" and only include cars, the best selling car in the US was the Camry, w/428K units sold in 2014.

The world's best selling EV, the Leaf moved 30.2K units in the US in the same time period. Model S cumulative US sales are around 37K, if I'm not mistaken. Leaf cumulative US sales OTOH have passed 75K units recently.

...

Heya cwerdna - the point of the original post, and the ah-hah that gave rise to this thread, is that at least for two of us, we now have a personal functional definition of "car market" that includes either 2 or 3 vehicles. It is, as you rightly point out, NOT the typical definition of car market.

For me, I might generically define the car market as long ranged BEV, by which I largely use Tesla's rule-of-thumb of 200 miles range. Using that simplistic and short definition, I see 1 out-of-production car available (Roadster), 1 in-production vehicle (Model S), and 1 promised-but-not-shipping (Model X). Actually, I guess I can generously add on 2 additional vehicles, though I consider both to be too far out to be added yet - Chevy Bolt and Model 3.

If I were to define the car market as long range BEVs with high speed charging network of ~100 kW+, then I see 1 in-production, and 1 promised vehicle (and further raising the bar for when we see other competition).


Part of the realization for me is that I won't consider buying something else. Toyota doesn't make a single vehicle that I consider a substitute. Nor does Ford, BMW, etc.. Hence the observation, car market is down to 2 vehicles.

Hopefully that helps understand the point of view. The thread and commentary is not claiming that Tesla is the only company building 4 wheeled self powered vehicles - clearly there are an overwhelming pile of those being built.

 

[ToddRLockwood]

I'm with you. It is truly difficult to imagine buying a gasoline powered car as a daily driver again. Perhaps a one-trick pony like a collector car or an exotic, but certainly not a car I use every day.

Here's what's on the other side of my garage, a car I could never sell...

 

[mwulff]

I guess for me the car market is down to a single car from a single manufacturer at this point. The Model S from Tesla is pretty much the only game in town as far as I am concerned.

Worth considering would the Nissan leaf if it had about 25-40% more range. It is a weird design but the car drives well enough. Of course it's sold through crappy dealers and the service costs could be bad over the lifetime of the car.

But every time I think about an electric car my mind wanders back to the supercharger network and all the advantages that brings, and no other manufacturer seems to give a 2 cents about long distance ev travel.

So there is basically 1 car I can buy today.

 

[llstringfield@at]

I would not mind have the new RR Wraith.

 

[wycolo]

TRL: You coulda got the Tesla Green . . .

Very nice Lincoln!
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