Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[Jeff N]

Barron's article, by subscription, but came up for free on my cell phone. Analyst Karl Brauer for Kelley Blue Book and veteran industry observer says GM will sell between 30,000 and 80,000 Bolt's in 2018. Didn't someone do the math earlier and show that there will only be enough batteries for fewer than 30,00 per year?

GM is apparently projecting initial sales of 30,000 a year for supplier planning purposes but has said publicly that they and their suppliers are capable of making at least 50,000 Bolt EVs per year. Obviously if there were stronger demand then additional battery manufacturing capability could be spun up. Presumably LG has been thinking about this carefully since they want to be one of the top 3 or so battery suppliers for EVs.

 

[wdolson]

GM is apparently projecting initial sales of 30,000 a year for supplier planning purposes but has said publicly that they and their suppliers are capable of making at least 50,000 Bolt EVs per year. Obviously if there were stronger demand then additional battery manufacturing capability could be spun up. Presumably LG has been thinking about this carefully since they want to be one of the top 3 or so battery suppliers for EVs.

I recall reading an analysis of LG Chem's capacity and commitments and 50,000 battery pack a year is about the largest volume they could handle.

 

[Jeff N]

I recall reading an analysis of LG Chem's capacity and commitments and 50,000 battery pack a year is about the largest volume they could handle.

That might well be true initially but I have to think that LG is capable of scaling up production with a year or two of advanced notice and must have thought through some plans along those lines. They have been aggressively seeking contracts with multiple car makers and it has been a general Korean (including LG) manufacturing strategy to aggressively price products and scale up production to capture initial market share (as with TV flat panels etc.).

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Interesting article on GCR: Bob Lutz called 2017 Chevy Bolt EV a 'compliance car'; is it?

We reached out to Chevrolet directly and asked: Is the 2017 Bolt EV a compliance car?

Steve Majoros, marketing director for Chevrolet cars and crossovers, responded as follows:

At Chevrolet, we put the customer at the center of everything we do. That means offering a variety of products and services to meet a variety of customer needs. Bolt EV is just one of many examples, and in this case, of solving the range and cost equation that has frustrated consumers for some time in the EV space—and doing it with a car that is not just a great electric car, but a great car loaded with innovations … all in a packaging/configuration that offers tremendous flexibility and versatility.

We feel confident that the Bolt EV will appeal to a number of customers interested in the electric-car space, and will do so for customers in all 50 states. As such, we can confidently say Bolt EV is not a exclusively “compliance play.”

Based on our success with Volt, and consumer and dealer receptivity, we know there is both demand and the ability of the nationwide Chevrolet dealer network to provide the sales and service experience that has made us the best full-line manufacturer in both according to JD Power.

While build and distribution plans are not yet finalized, given the propensity for electric-car acceptance in markets like California, we will certainly work to ensure we can satisfy demand in those markets which have shown greater rates of EV adoption, supporting infrastructure, programs and general consumer acceptance.

It is true that the ZEV credit landscape changes in 2018—but it can be argued that there are “50 state” compliance issues such as CAFE and greenhouse gas that not just Chevrolet but all makers are working to meet. Bolt EV is one part of this equation along with a number of product improvements and innovations (powertrains, transmissions, mixed material use, design, etc) that provide what customers want – greater performance, better fuel economy and greater value.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

That might well be true initially but I have to think that LG is capable of scaling up production with a year or two of advanced notice and must have thought through some plans along those lines. They have been aggressively seeking contracts with multiple car makers and it has been a general Korean (including LG) manufacturing strategy to aggressively price products and scale up production to capture initial market share (as with TV flat panels etc.).

An _expansion_ of a cell plant in China by Panasonic took 20 months. So let's say that 2 years would be a reasonable time-frame for a new plant. If they release the Bolt, then take a view on sales after 6 months, it'd be mid-2019 before there'd be significant additional capacity.

Should be 2020 before we'll see whether GM will really commit to BEV.

 

[stopcrazypp]

That might well be true initially but I have to think that LG is capable of scaling up production with a year or two of advanced notice and must have thought through some plans along those lines. They have been aggressively seeking contracts with multiple car makers and it has been a general Korean (including LG) manufacturing strategy to aggressively price products and scale up production to capture initial market share (as with TV flat panels etc.).

The 50k number is taken from ramping up their existing factories in South Korea (which had not been building in full nameplate capacity) and giving all capacity to GM (not other automakers). This will take some time in itself. I think the 30k GM projects is more realistic in the near term. Adding addition capacity on top of that will take new factories or an expansion of the plant, which will take even longer.

 

[flankspeed8]

Interesting article on GCR: Bob Lutz called 2017 Chevy Bolt EV a 'compliance car'; is it?

If it indeed does have a nationwide launch I don't see how it could be labeled a compliance car. True compliance cars are limited to CARB states for the ZEV/CAFE requirements as the Spark EV is.

In the same regard, would anyone call the Volt a compliance car?

 

[Jeff N]

The 50k number is taken from ramping up their existing factories in South Korea (which had not been building in full nameplate capacity) and giving all capacity to GM (not other automakers). This will take some time in itself.

That sounds plausible but do we actually know that? What is your source?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

If it indeed does have a nationwide launch I don't see how it could be labeled a compliance car. True compliance cars are limited to CARB states for the ZEV/CAFE requirements as the Spark EV is.

In the same regard, would anyone call the Volt a compliance car?

I would say that intending to sell the Bolt nationwide, but expecting (or limiting) to sell ~30k of them and focusing on compliance states, would certainly have me questioning the definition, yes.

 

[stopcrazypp]

That sounds plausible but do we actually know that? What is your source?

I did the numbers from announced capacity figures of LG Chem's factory. I came to a number of 53k from the Ochang plant where the Bolt's battery cells would be made. This ballpark estimate was confirmed later with the 50k number released by GM two days later after I did that estimate.

Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

I have the detailed calculations here (I first did calculations from the Holland plant which was where the 30k estimate was derived from, but later pointed out the cells would be made in Ochang, so looking at Holland is kind of moot).
Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

 

[Jeff N]

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. I'm not clear on how much expansion room the Michigan LG factory has given their already announced commitments. I imagine that they could at some point choose to start building Bolt EV cells and packs in Michigan to supplement the ones coming from Ochang, Korea if demand was higher than forecast.

 

[diamond.g]

If it indeed does have a nationwide launch I don't see how it could be labeled a compliance car. True compliance cars are limited to CARB states for the ZEV/CAFE requirements as the Spark EV is.

In the same regard, would anyone call the Volt a compliance car?

The 2016 Volt is….

 

[flankspeed8]

The 2016 Volt is….

dooohhh....you of course are right that it was.....

2017 is nationwide and we have about a dozen on dealer lots here

 

[diamond.g]

dooohhh....you of course are right that it was.....

2017 is nationwide and we have about a dozen on dealer lots here

Yeah. Yeah.

 

[cab]

I'm sure GM is gun shy with regard to volume announcement / predictions. They got burned with overoptimistic projections for the gen 1 Volt, and don't really want to make that same mistake again. Basically, as with most things, under promise and over deliver plays better than the reverse.

Having said that, if people show REAL interest and demand more GM will build more. The "masses" (despite the Model III reservations) are still mostly uninterested in EVs though. I mentioned to a few friends I had reserved a model III and most had no idea what I was talking about. The few that I personally know who have reserved are spread across the country and either car guys or tech nerds.

Heck, look at the gen 2 Volt. By all accounts, it is a GREAT car, but I still don't see it selling in "Wow" numbers...and that's with 3500+ sitting on dealer lots (per Cars.com) across the country now.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Heck, look at the gen 2 Volt. By all accounts, it is a GREAT car, but I still don't see it selling in "Wow" numbers...and that's with 3500+ sitting on dealer lots (per Cars.com) across the country now.

That may have to more to do with GM marketing and their dealer network dropping the ball than anything. That was the complaint by Volt fans for the gen 1 version. Same thing could happen with Bolt launch.

 

[ZsoZso]

I have some personal experience with GM dealers with regards to the Volt. I have tried to buy one in 2012, but after visiting 4 different dealerships in my area, I have given up on trying to convince them to sell me a Volt and bought the Mitsubishi iMiev shown on my avatar instead.

They would not give a cent off the MSRP and would not even order me a car with the configurations and color I wanted, but insisted on selling one from their lot for full MSRP. But I could have walked out with an ICE truck for almost half the price...

If they do the same attitude with the Bolt, they will not sell too many.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I have some personal experience with GM dealers with regards to the Volt. I have tried to buy one in 2012, but after visiting 4 different dealerships in my area, I have given up on trying to convince them to sell me a Volt and bought the Mitsubishi iMiev shown on my avatar instead.

They would not give a cent off the MSRP and would not even order me a car with the configurations and color I wanted, but insisted on selling one from their lot for full MSRP. But I could have walked out with an ICE truck for almost half the price...

If they do the same attitude with the Bolt, they will not sell too many.

GM dealers around here were happy to sell me a Volt with whatever promotion GM was offering, and not a penny less...and happy to order one with the same conditions.

So, I leased a Leaf, instead.

 

[McRat]

I have some personal experience with GM dealers with regards to the Volt. I have tried to buy one in 2012, but after visiting 4 different dealerships in my area, I have given up on trying to convince them to sell me a Volt and bought the Mitsubishi iMiev shown on my avatar instead.

They would not give a cent off the MSRP and would not even order me a car with the configurations and color I wanted, but insisted on selling one from their lot for full MSRP. But I could have walked out with an ICE truck for almost half the price...

If they do the same attitude with the Bolt, they will not sell too many.

In 2013, it took 4 hours to find and purchase a 2013 Volt for my daughter at a heavy discount. Including 8.75% sales tax, the complete price after all rebates was $25k USD. The 2016 for my son was no different. Same time required, same price. California is a huge market for "green" cars.

Many car dealers hate to order cars. If you do want to order, never talk to a salesman, since they don't make much if any commission on special orders.

 

[McRat]

GM dealers around here were happy to sell me a Volt with whatever promotion GM was offering, and not a penny less...and happy to order one with the same conditions.

So, I leased a Leaf, instead.

The Leaf right now is HUGE bargain.

In California, after all taxes and incentives, it is very close to the cheapest auto for sale. In Colorado, I think it is the cheapest. Nissan is dumping them right now in the US. Far less than cost.