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China and Berlin production news
- Thread starter Mikescratch0
- Start date
So correct me if my calculations are wrong,
The plant was shut until 05/07
M3 Production at old rate (5,500 per 7 day week), 05/07 to 16/07 = 12 days = 9420
M3 Production at new rate (7,700 per 7 day week), 06/08 to 30/09 = 56 days = 61,600
Total Q3 M3 Production = 71k (approx)
MY Production all at new rate (14,000 per 7 day week), 17/07 to 30/09 = 152,000
Total Q3 Production ~ 223k
Of which 161k is for China
Leaving 62k for RoW to be shipped (excl USA) give or take, allowing for some unshipped Q2 stock, production rate variances, and the odd day here or there. At 4,500 cars per ship that equates to 14 non-china ships for the quarter.
Have I got this correct?
Seems plausible, what’s the source for 160k for China?
I think the max for a RoRo is 4500 and some are smaller, but that would just equate to more ships, or more left for domestic.
Maybe not relevant, but some European demand is met by Berlin, like 1 RoRo’s worth per week.
Re Berlin production, I guess the only effect would be to reduce the EU content in the 62k of RoW production. Hopefully a higher % will be UK!
Uptick in production will fill new markets such as Australia. However, Shanghai MY Europe exports will slow in Q4 substantially while Berlin ramps.
An interesting table, Darreno. From this it looks like my calculation for M3 is a bit optimistic, (71k vs 64k), but close re MY (152k vs153k).
Q4 is really interesting, look at the M3 ramp up for Shanghai!
It's just someones punt. Your's could be as good as theirs.
Do you know if Europe means EU, or all of Europe geographically, i.e. are we (UK) in included in Europe or are we ROW?
Ok, I just assumed as the numbers were so specific that they had come from an inside source!
Jason71
Well-Known Member
So do we think the 7K MY from china in Q4 will be RHD or does anyone really think Germany will be producing RHD LR by then?
no me either so that kind of sets the bar for UK MYLR deliveries in Q4 then
no me either so that kind of sets the bar for UK MYLR deliveries in Q4 then
workable
Member
Berlin GF isn’t building MYLR for the UK this year was my understanding , just MYP
Berlin could start making a Std Range model, probably just called a RWD using a structural but smaller LFP battery (Tesla have signed a deal with BYD for the packs and have EU approval to build) in the same way Austin Texas are with the 4680 cells. At the moment I think they're still only making MYP and in just 2 colours, unless thats changed recently.
That's a little unfair! - his punts have been proven over time to be uncannily accurate. Way, way better than those Wall Street experts!
Maybe but it’s a shame he doesn’t recognise Mexico as a country and the numbers going there in his figures.
Looking at the latest time lapse video, there are stacks of cars produced, but still all appear to be black/white. Assuming an increase in volume shipping to Norway etc
No they don't...there are all colours (Black,MSM, and Blue all look dark from the drone but many red models are evident)
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