Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[SageBrush]

You can start with clouds. Until they can be properly modeled then all of your alarmist climate prediction models will remain laughably wrong.

Is your contention that the cloud modeling is wrong ? A few days ago you stated that negative components of the forcing are increasing.
What is it going to be today, and what data do you have to back up your assertion ?

 

[mspohr]

Germany’s AfD turns on Greta Thunberg as it embraces climate denial

Germany’s AfD turns on Greta Thunberg as it embraces climate denial

Germany’s rightwing populists are embracing climate change denial as the latest topic with which to boost their electoral support, teaming up with scientists who claim hysteria is driving the global warming debate and ridiculing the Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg as “mentally challenged” and a fraud.

EIKE’s annual climate conference is co-sponsored by the Heartland Institute, a fossil fuel industry-funded US thinktank that has a history of funding projects aimed at weakening public confidence in climate science, the investigation found. EIKE’s president, Holger Thuss, co-founded the European branch of another US climate change denial pressure group, Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT).

CFACT Europe received financial support from its US counterpart, according to documents seen by the Guardian.

 

[JRP3]

You are either clueless or very dishonest. The global cooling scare was being actively peddled by the scientists of the day and the governments of the world, including the CIA and NASA here. If you want to believe the one bogus "study" by the rabid alarmist who was kicked off of wikipedia for dishonest moderating and censorship practices then be my guest. Here is a real study that shows what was actually going on in the scientific community at the time:

Massive Cover-up Exposed: 285 Papers From 1960s-’80s Reveal Robust Global Cooling Scientific ‘Consensus’

What's dishonest is the characterization in that article of papers that are at best inconclusive or neutral about the effects of CO2. Some examples of "cooling" articles:

“[T]he author is convinced that recent increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide have contributed much less than 5% of the recent changes of atmospheric temperature, and will contribute no more than that in the foreseeable future.”

“It is not clear how such favorable and relatively consistent conditions are related to the higher temperatures in this century or the peaking of temperatures around 1940. The reversal of this warming trend, however, could mark the beginning of a new ice age as some climatologists have indicated. It should be noted, though, that even if we are in fact heading for another ice age, many years or decades will elapse before this will become apparent”

“Unlike some other pollutants introduced into the atmosphere by Man, carbon dioxide is naturally occurring and non-toxic. The direct effect of increased concentrations may be beneficial notably because it will tend to increase the rate of photosynthesis in plants. On the other hand, there may be deleterious effects through its influence on climate but this is still unproven and we cannot be certain whether, on a global scale, it will on the whole be harmful or beneficial. … The problem of determining the effect of increased carbon dioxide on climate is difficult, the more so because there are some essential aspects of the physical basis of climate that are not well understood”

This is just a small sample of papers which are supposedly proof of a "cooling" consensus yet they are far from that. The article is purposely misleading.

 

[JRP3]

This @exxonmobile chart from 1982 predicted that in 2019 our atmospheric CO2 level would reach about 415 parts per million, raising the global temperature roughly 0.9 degrees C. Update: The world crossed the 415 ppm threshold this week and broke 0.9 degrees C in 2017

Tom Randall on Twitter

 

[mspohr]

AOC Condemns Middle of the Road Approaches on Combating Climate Change.

 

[mspohr]

A short history of Trump's failures to develop America's "energy dominance" (based on fossil fuels).
Clutching to fossil fuels, and losing, in the era of climate change

 

[ggies07]

Tom Randall on Twitter

I'm so glad he is spreading parts of the report out.

 

[nwdiver]

One of us is definitely daft. Show me how daft I am publicly when we go through the temperature record. You state we are cooling so it should be simple. You won’t look like a total fool at all.

Sidestepping is moving the goalposts and running away from a public discussion. One person here is doing that.

I always thought it was annoying only reading/hearing one side of the conversation.... this proves that nothing is universal.

 

[ohmman]

US is hotbed of climate change denial, major global survey finds
Exclusive: Out of 23 big countries, only Saudi Arabia and Indonesia had higher proportion of doubters


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/07/us-hotbed-climate-change-denial-international-poll

 

[mspohr]

'It has to be dealt with': what's the future for midwest towns affected by climate change?

'It has to be dealt with': what's the future for midwest towns affected by climate change?

“Between hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts, literally all within a year, something’s changing,” said Davenport’s mayor, Frank Klipsch. “I think we would be irresponsible if we don’t address that.”

I haven’t heard anybody disagree that there are climate changes happening. The source of the climate change may be in debate for some. For many of us it’s not. But it still has to be dealt with. Even very conservative areas realize they’re struggling with many, many climate issues they’re going to have to deal with. When the problem is so clear, it’s easier to get everybody in the same room pushing in the same direction.”

 

[jerry33]

I haven’t heard anybody disagree that there are climate changes happening. The source of the climate change may be in debate for some. For many of us it’s not. But it still has to be dealt with. Even very conservative areas realize they’re struggling with many, many climate issues they’re going to have to deal with. When the problem is so clear, it’s easier to get everybody in the same room pushing in the same direction.”

The problem isn't regular folks, by and large, it's the paid off politicians and the folks that vote for them due to other issues. And of course the FUD from industry, who only care about this quarter (and once in a great while the next).

 

[Unpilot]

Change is hard...not changing will be much much harder. It seems that for people as they get older the ability to change get's harder still.
My mother who is 89 resisted using a cell phone (and still hates it). So changing our entire energy structure is going to be very hard.

But even if the actual cause of climate change is not being forced by man (it is) the end result will be less war, cleaner air, cheaper fuel, better quality of life.

Seems like when we have the technology to change for the better the old ways die hard.

 

[mspohr]

‘Extraordinary thinning’ of ice sheets revealed deep inside Antarctica

‘Extraordinary thinning’ of ice sheets revealed deep inside Antarctica

Ice losses are rapidly spreading deep into the interior of the Antarctic, new analysis of satellite data shows.

The warming of the Southern Ocean is resulting in glaciers sliding into the sea increasingly rapidly, with ice now being lost five times faster than in the 1990s. The West Antarctic ice sheet was stable in 1992 but up to a quarter of its expanse is now thinning. More than 100 metres of ice thickness has been lost in the worst-hit places.

A complete loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet would drive global sea levels up by about five metres, drowning coastal cities around the world. The current losses are doubling every decade, the scientists said, and sea level rise are now running at the extreme end of projections made just a few years ago.

 

[mspohr]

Single-use plastics a serious climate change hazard, study warns

Single-use plastics a serious climate change hazard, study warns

The proliferation of single-use plastic around the world is accelerating climate change and should be urgently halted, a report warns.

Plastic production is expanding worldwide, fuelled in part by the fracking boom in the US. The report says plastic contributes to greenhouse gas emissions at every stage of its lifecycle, from its production to its refining and the way it is managed as a waste product.

“At current levels, greenhouse gas emissions from the plastic lifecycle threaten the ability of the global community to keep global temperature rise below 1.5C,” the report says.

“With the petrochemical and plastic industries planning a massive expansion in production, the problem is on track to get much worse.”

The key actions which the authors say are required are:

• Immediately end the production and use of single-use, disposable plastic.

• Stop development of new oil, gas and petrochemical infrastructure.

• Foster the transition to zero-waste communities.

• Implement a system where polluters pay for the impact of their products – known as extended producer responsibility.

 

[mspohr]

This is what climate change looks like:
Atmospheric Convulsion Will Cause Historic Disasters of Arctic Melt & U.S. Storms Next Week

This is written to give an early warning to people and because this is what climate change looks like. Consult your local NOAA weather forecasts to stay safe over the next week. The American model shows an extremely unstable situation developing late Monday over Texas and Oklahoma.

 

[mspohr]

Revealed: air pollution may be damaging 'every organ in the body'

Revealed: air pollution may be damaging 'every organ in the body'

Air pollution may be damaging every organ and virtually every cell in the human body, according to a comprehensive new global review.

The research shows head-to-toe harm, from heart and lung disease to diabetes and dementia, and from liver problems and bladder cancer to brittle bones and damaged skin. Fertility, foetuses and children are also affected by toxic air, the review found.

Air pollution is a “public health emergency”, according to the World Health Organization, with more than 90% of the global population enduring toxic outdoor air. New analysis indicates 8.8m early deaths each year – double earlier estimates – making air pollution a bigger killer than tobacco smoking

For example, government action to slash pollution before the Beijing Olympics in 2008 led to a rise in birth weights in the city.

 

[mspohr]

A Major Coal Company Went Bust. Its Bankruptcy Filing Shows That It Was Funding Climate Change Denialism.

The documents in the court docket show that the coal giant gave contributions to leading think tanks that have attacked the link between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change, as well as to several conservative advocacy groups that have attempted to undermine policies intended to shift the economy toward renewable energy. The documents do not include information on the size of the contributions, yet, taken as a whole, the list of groups Cloud Peak Energy helped fund are indicative of how the company prioritized pushing climate denialism. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

 

[EinSV]

A Major Coal Company Went Bust. Its Bankruptcy Filing Shows That It Was Funding Climate Change Denialism.

The documents in the court docket show that the coal giant gave contributions to leading think tanks that have attacked the link between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change, as well as to several conservative advocacy groups that have attempted to undermine policies intended to shift the economy toward renewable energy. The documents do not include information on the size of the contributions, yet, taken as a whole, the list of groups Cloud Peak Energy helped fund are indicative of how the company prioritized pushing climate denialism. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

I thought this passage was interesting. A Cloud Peak VP who was a former Philip Morris exec advises the company to take a page from Big Tobacco's playbook in spreading climate science FUD. Passing the torch from one merchant of doubt company to another. And then denying they engaged in climate change denial (another lie).

In 2016, Greg Zimmerman, an environmental activist, stumbled upon a presentation titled “Survival Is Victory: Lessons From the Tobacco Wars.” The slide deck was the creation of Richard Reavey, a vice president for government and public affairs at Cloud Peak Energy, and a former executive at Phillip Morris. Reavey argued that fossil fuel firms, particularly coal, should emulate the tactics of big tobacco, which similarly spent decades battling scientists and regulators over claims that its product harmed public health.​

In the New York Times coverage of the episode, Reavey told the paper that his firm “has never fought climate change — never fought it, never denied it or funded anyone who does.”​

 

[mspohr]

California braces for Trump mpg rules with extreme options—like a ban on tailpipes?

I do have to say that the consequences are dire, as we’ve heard, and the alternatives that we face are extreme,” said Nichols, in a transcript of her closing statement provided by the agency. “If we don’t have the ability to continue to move forward with our transformation to cleaner cars, we will be faced with a dramatic alternative of tighter sector controls on everything else.”

, it will still likely maintain a waiver (decoupled from the coordinated package it was granted in 2013) to regulate conventional tailpipe air pollutants that directly cause smog and health issues—sometimes called criteria emissions—like nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide.

In earlier draft remarks obtained by Bloomberg, Nichols had been due to note some even more specific examples, like health-protective regulations on refineries, doubling down on enforcement efforts for mobile and stationary sources, or an outright ban on internal combustion engines.

 

[JRP3]

Interview with the author of The Scientific Attitude: Defending Science From Denial, Fraud, And Pseudoscience