Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[Icer]

Reread you're history.

Not sure how to look that up.
Must be a way to set the search engine to give me results from a time period.
Will chase that later.

But I recall, 2015-16, there was an extreme bullishness in general around FSD.
Calls for the gov't to step up and get to the needed regulations.

The reason I remember is I had been beyond skeptical, but hearing the constant refrain
from people inside the operations, then seeing TSLA vid in 2016 changed my thinking.
It felt right around the corner.

Since then, we have fallen into what is it called, a Nuclear Winter?
Probably not that, but something like it.

Lag or unanticipated delay, it turns out to be not so easily solved.

Still no gov't regulations
They need to stop fighting and start taking care of business.

 

[JRP3]

Tracking systems really aren't worth the cost or maintenance now that solar panels are ~$0.50/w. It's cheaper just to add more panels facing a different direction. If it's not supposed to move it's not a problem when it stops moving.

My idea for a tracker in northern climates would be one that tilted the panels at a downward angle during the night and daytime snow storms to avoid ice and snow buildup. Tracking is also useful where the roof is shaded but a small nearby open area is not. I've seen one not far from me which utilizes limited space quite well.

 

[nwdiver]

My idea for a tracker in northern climates would be one that tilted the panels at a downward angle during the night and daytime snow storms to avoid ice and snow buildup. Tracking is also useful where the roof is shaded but a small nearby open area is not. I've seen one not far from me which utilizes limited space quite well.

Maybe... but I don't think snow will stick to anything >30 degrees anyway... IMO a fixed array at >30 degrees would be better especially if its a larger array.

 

[SR22pilot]

Not sure how to look that up.
Must be a way to set the search engine to give me results from a time period.
Will chase that later.

But I recall, 2015-16, there was an extreme bullishness in general around FSD.
Calls for the gov't to step up and get to the needed regulations.

The reason I remember is I had been beyond skeptical, but hearing the constant refrain
from people inside the operations, then seeing TSLA vid in 2016 changed my thinking.
It felt right around the corner.

Since then, we have fallen into what is it called, a Nuclear Winter?
Probably not that, but something like it.

Lag or unanticipated delay, it turns out to be not so easily solved.

Still no gov't regulations
They need to stop fighting and start taking care of business.

Musk tends to reason from first principles which is why he says camera systems are all that is needed. I agree. However, even his new neural net chip is small compared to the brain of even a small animal. We will get there but it will be incremental. Look at AP today. I used it today and it made the drive easier but I took over in a couple of instances.

You can probably find the comments if you spend ages on Google. Heck, just about everyone back then insisted on LIDAR. Today there are a few researchers beginning to say that cameras may be sufficient. That doesn't mean it will be here in a year.

 

[StealthP3D]

That doesn't mean it will be here in a year.

A year....one trip around the sun. Not very long. It takes a decade to build a nuclear plant and, even then, it might not be done. It took us over 100 years to develop the technology of electricity such that EV's are finally better than fossil fueled vehicles. I can guarantee that the laws of physics have not changed, we just needed to learn how to harness them. Autonomous driving on regular roads is a much more difficult problem and yet it's only been seriously worked on in a commercial manner for the last several years.

FSD is imminent, just be aware that it will be ready when it's ready and not a moment sooner.

 

[alloverx]

I assume a nuclear plant could likely be built in under 18 months if it was urgent enough and money was no object.

 

[nwdiver]

I assume a nuclear plant could likely be built in under 18 months if it was urgent enough and money was no object.

Sure... but no one would allow it to operate for ~10 years until all the discrepancies were fixed...

 

[WannabeOwner]

I've heard people say they hate the look of turbines. I myself like the way they look,

I come across some people who dislike them ... I always refer to them as "Wind Flowers" to try to influence Hearts and Minds ...

There will always be NIMBY's for just about everything but the majority ends up making the decision

I doubt that will happen here. We have very few wide open spaces, so all likely farmland sites will be close to habitation too. And the more remote hills etc are all regarded as "pristine nature" so probably won't get a Planning anyway - same as you can't put PV panels on old houses (anything "Listed") [slight over simplification, "Can't put PV on roof if visible" might be more accurate]

Anyway, I think UK would be much better off chucking it all offshore ... plenty of space, huge plans in the approval-phase, much quicker than converting NIMBYs

I'd output is expected to start significantly dropping after that

Long shot: will you (any of us?) need PV on our roof in 20+ years? Perhaps we will be awash with renewable Grid energy?

 

[StealthP3D]

- same as you can't put PV panels on old houses (anything "Listed") [slight over simplification, "Can't put PV on roof if visible" might be more accurate]

That's really ridiculous. So historic houses can't have rooftop solar? Fortunately they probably comprise a shrinking minority of houses, but still. What if the historic house is threatened by rising sea levels? Can they then put rooftop solar on to do their part to curb sea level rise?

I suspect those funded by fossil interests will use any excuse that sounds reasonable to reduce the penetration of competing technologies.

Long shot: will you (any of us?) need PV on our roof in 20+ years? Perhaps we will be awash with renewable Grid energy?

I don't know, I think the advantages of distributed solar outweigh the disadvantages. Your roof is already shading the ground and shading the roof by installing solar panels reduces the need for air conditioning. But the real advantage of distributed solar is the grid becomes more efficient due to lower transmission losses and less need for high voltage transmission lines (which are expensive to install).

 

[WannabeOwner]

So historic houses can't have rooftop solar?

Sadly not "historic", anything "listed", which includes some rubbish 1960's concrete carbuncles

Ironically, I think Tesla Tile might be OK for those houses ... although here's another piece of stupidity:

The "Listing" legislation came in after the war, because of the number of historic buildings that were lost, but in the 1980's then went round and Listed anything they could find - that included pretty much anything where any part pre-dates 1840, and anything "big" built later (There are 500K listed building in England). T

The stupidity is that the buildings are listed as-they-were-then. So if the house had originally had some lovely leaded-lights-windows, but some Heathen had fitted ghastly replacement-Crittall metal-framed replacement windows (as was common), then the house is Listed with those modern ugly Crittall windows - and you can't change them. Nope, you can't change them back to the original Leaded-Lights. All you can do is replace them with look-alike Crittall Windows.

Crittall Window:

Original leaded-lights would have looked like this:

I can't help thinking that someone in the Heritage Department could use some pragmatic-thinking ... but alas, No.

they probably comprise a shrinking minority of houses

Whilst true its most of the houses with really really big roofs and huge electricity usage

 

[JRP3]

Maybe... but I don't think snow will stick to anything >30 degrees anyway... IMO a fixed array at >30 degrees would be better especially if its a larger array.

Snow and ice will stick to vertical surfaces if the temperature is right, remember the frozen door handles? Also a tracker would allow faster melting of any overnight buildup.
Fixed array is not better when space is limited since it can't be larger.

 

[mspohr]

Snow and ice will stick to vertical surfaces if the temperature is right, remember the frozen door handles? Also a tracker would allow faster melting of any overnight buildup.
Fixed array is not better when space is limited since it can't be larger.

We're getting off topic here but I do want to speak of my experience with snow and solar where we get 10 or 20 feet of snow a year. My pole mounted panels at 35 deg in winter shed snow within a day. Another set at 25 degrees sometimes takes a few days. Not really a problem.
Of course, this temporary set of panels was buried deep
https://photos.app.goo.gl/1svCfxrFzMNQAoyu8

 

[Dr. J]

So historic houses can't have rooftop solar?

The reality (in the US) is a bit more nuanced: Solar Panels on Historic Properties—Technical Preservation Services, National Park Service Of course, local regulations may vary.

 

[winfield100]

you can replace them after 25 years with the latest models, which might be a bit more efficient by that time.

@ZsoZso
as a _single_ data point.
20 yrs ago I had PV installed, supposedly BP MSX-43's (which when removed a month ago when i reroofed were actually MS_ -37's, 37 watts, not 43's) ASi. Amorphous Silicon
26 sq meters for actual 1,184watts, (still pumping electrons after 20 years by the way, roof leaked tho)
my other house I got a 60sq meter PV array, 11,655 watts (about 10x the power in 2x the space)
The output curve will flatten tho and technology will slow a bit as another 5x increase would be 100% efficient.
First one was string inverter, +/- 186v in groups of 4 panels, new one 37 IQ7 Microinverters, 37, 315w panels, putting out 220-240v and a lot of amps.
The technology seems to be rapidly, finally , maturing

 

[SageBrush]

But the real advantage of distributed solar is the grid becomes more efficient due to lower transmission losses and less need for high voltage transmission lines (which are expensive to install).

The utilities I have talked to and checked in NM and Colorado all say that evening hours are peak load at least part of the year if not every month. That is their main argument in discounting PV value to the grid and so far as I can tell it is a reasonable argument.

 

[jerry33]

The utilities I have talked to and checked in NM and Colorado all say that evening hours are peak load at least part of the year if not every month. That is their main argument in discounting PV value to the grid and so far as I can tell it is a reasonable argument.

So if peak load is from 10:00-21:00, and solar is most effective from 10:00-18:00, this won't have any grid impact? Sounds to me as if it's FUD from vested interests.

 

[winfield100]

I Like the panels on the ground.
With the gadget to follow the sun
Easy to get at them to clean them off or service.
No holes in the roof.

@Icer
40+ years back (1975) when PV was around $101/watt 2 axis trackers were a great idea, then single axis
now the darn panels are around 30 cents a watt (pallet load)
https://sunelec.com/solar-panels

 

[StealthP3D]

The utilities I have talked to and checked in NM and Colorado all say that evening hours are peak load at least part of the year if not every month. That is their main argument in discounting PV value to the grid and so far as I can tell it is a reasonable argument.

I imagine it's not much different from California in that peak load happens when air conditioners start coming on in the late afternoon and then people get home and shower/cook, etc. LED lighting is still reducing the load after dark. The solution is a lot of west facing panels and cheap rates right until the sun sets. This encourages people to cool their house while the sun is still shining and it can be done with cheaper renewable energy. Many areas have a surplus of wind energy after dark.

On the other hand, regulated utilities have a lot of economic incentive to slow down the transition to distributed solar unless the regulators are doing their job properly (which I imagine they are not).

 

[Merrill]

I imagine it's not much different from California in that peak load happens when air conditioners start coming on in the late afternoon and then people get home and shower/cook, etc. LED lighting is still reducing the load after dark. The solution is a lot of west facing panels and cheap rates right until the sun sets. This encourages people to cool their house while the sun is still shining and it can be done with cheaper renewable energy. Many areas have a surplus of wind energy after dark.

On the other hand, regulated utilities have a lot of economic incentive to slow down the transition to distributed solar unless the regulators are doing their job properly (which I imagine they are not).

In California the power companies are in bed with the regulator (CPUC) so they sign off on whatever the power companies want. They continue to punish the residential solar user and I’m sure this will continue, especially since the costs of the wildfires will also be passed on to customers.

 

[SageBrush]

The solution is a lot of west facing panels and cheap rates right until the sun sets. This encourages people to cool their house while the sun is still shining and it can be done with cheaper renewable energy.

I have thought this too, and it is part of the reason why I favor separate energy and demand charges on a bill. People should be aware of not only how much energy they use but when. The customer can then decide if they want to use expensive, dirty energy in the early evening or cheap, clean energy during the day and later at night.

There is a lot of low-hanging demand shifting waiting to happen, from EV charging to domestic hot water to A/C use. Merkins require transparent price signals.