Coronavirus

[dfwatt]

Can't argue with that, although it is redundant based upon current standards. I'm sure most of this is a lot of pandering to their political base (which the majority of antivaxers probably belong to).

In the current climate, even if they are redundant, I like the idea of more guardrails rather than fewer. You have to believe that the pressure that's going to be placed on the FDA to get a vaccine out in late October is going to be ferocious. That may include even bootlegging the Russian vaccine in some fashion. Obviously that would require an end-run around current FDA rules but that's not stopped the current Administration in any other context. I'm not 100% convinced that the current head of the FDA has the backbone or the stomach for drawing lines and saying no. He could also be replaced with a stooge who is more willing to be compliant with what Trump wants.

 

[dfwatt]

The purpose of my message was to get some people to reflect on how they approach other posters, as responses can sometimes be very disrespectful (and some saying that ‘uninformed’ posts deserve such a response is part of the problem). I hope the message got through.

In the case of COVID-19 moderators cannot actively engage in seperating facts from opinion, if only because there is no agreement on what is what. The community has to sort that out on its own. In a non-condescending way.

I'm sorry and I am loath to contradict a moderator in public, due to obvious reasons, but I am simply not comfortable with this formulation. Here's why. It reminds me of the referee that always punishes the retaliation but never catches the first offense that prompted the retaliation in the first place. What about the trolling, and deliberate disinformation that is actively disseminated on the forum? What about posts that advocate for openly white supremacist memes such as the notion that black lives matter is a terrorist organization? If those kinds of posts are not pulled down, and you punish instead the people who challenge or respond to that kind of crap harshly, it seems to me you're really not doing your job. No offense, but that's how I see it. You can punish me for posting this, but I'm not sure that solves the problem either. If trolling and disinformation are actively encouraged on a forum, you can't realistically be so surprised and so indignant when some of the responses to that type of content are less than optimally patient, balanced and respectful.

 

[madodel]

In the current climate, even if they are redundant, I like the idea of more guardrails rather than fewer. You have to believe that the pressure that's going to be placed on the FDA to get a vaccine out in late October is going to be ferocious. That may include even bootlegging the Russian vaccine in some fashion. Obviously that would require an end-run around current FDA rules but that's not stopped the current Administration in any other context. I'm not 100% convinced that the current head of the FDA has the backbone or the stomach for drawing lines and saying no. He could also be replaced with a stooge who is more willing to be compliant with what Trump wants.

Interesting you mention the head of the FDA. I just read that FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn has to have a political appointee on any calls with journalists interviewing him.
Stephen Hahn, F.D.A. Chief, Is Caught Between Scientists and the President

 

[alloverx]

As long as Putin takes the Russian vaccine than we might be making progress. But that will likely just be like Chinese and Iranian virus numbers. Complete PR spin.
Lets hope The Russian and Chinese vaccines were stolen from a reliable source.

 

[TEG]

Inside the Wuhan lab at the center of the coronavirus storm

Did the coronavirus escape from a Chinese lab? Here's what we know

 

[TEG]

Lets hope The Russian and Chinese vaccines were stolen from a reliable source.

Yeah, don't want a "Capacitor Plague" ( Capacitor plague - Wikipedia ) type situation.
( Intentionally incorrect formula was allowed to be stolen, and then the world market flooded with defective "knock-off" products... )
Big companies and governments need to be very careful when they try to damage the copy-cats with defective formulas. Those things circle back and end up in mainstream products.
Also, reminds me of this: Stuxnet - Wikipedia I don't think the "powers that be" like to talk about all the fallout damage from that program.
When you release something " to the wild", any concept of "surgical precision" is lost and outside of your control.

 

[Ludalicious]

Russia has vaccine and it looks pretty impressive considering it's using 6 years of research that they based it off of.

 

[bkp_duke]

Russia has vaccine and it looks pretty impressive considering it's using 6 years of research that they based it off of.

It's a turd.

I refer to my previous post here:
Coronavirus


"Years" of research is pretty meaningless. The Moderna vaccine has about 15 years of research behind it, and that still doesn't mean squat without proper Phase 1, 2, and 3 clinical trials.

 

[dfwatt]

Russia has vaccine and it looks pretty impressive considering it's using 6 years of research that they based it off of.

Well there's several profoundly troubling questions. First of all is it stolen? Secondly while it is based on a reasonably tried-and-true adenovirus viral Vector approach, that does not mean it's proven. And the notion of what is for all intents and purposes merely a phase 1 trial involving a few dozen patients obviating basically Phase 2 and phase 3 is simply a shortcut that no responsible immunologist would ever take. Even in a pandemic. As someone once said you wouldn't want to break your arm patting yourself on the back. And it seems that's what the Russians are doing here.

 

[Ludalicious]

It's a turd.

I refer to my previous post here:
Coronavirus


"Years" of research is pretty meaningless. The Moderna vaccine has about 15 years of research behind it, and that still doesn't mean squat without proper Phase 1, 2, and 3 clinical trials.

Information provided from US research facility on a Russian Vaccine. Yaaaaaa

 

[Ludalicious]

Well there's several questions. First of all is it stolen? Secondly while it is based on a reasonably tried-and-true adenovirus viral Vector approach, that does not mean it's proven. And the notion of what is for all intents and purposes merely a phase 1 trial involving a few dozen patients obviating basically Phase 2 and phase 3 is simply a shortcut that no responsible immunologist would ever take. Even in a pandemic.

Not trying to solve the world in one post my friend.

 

[bkp_duke]

Information from A US

Information provided from US research facility on a Russian Vaccine. Yaaaaaa

Clearly you have NO CLUE how clinical trials work.

The researcher (in this case Russia) submits that info to the site for tracking, and patient recruitment.

It's 100% maintained by the research entity (again, the Russian lab), not anyone in the US.


Clinicaltrials.gov is a wonderful website that while hosted in the USA, is used by researchers world-wide to share research and help recruit patients for clinical trials.


Care to put your foot further in your mouth?

 

[bkp_duke]

Well there's several profoundly troubling questions. First of all is it stolen? Secondly while it is based on a reasonably tried-and-true adenovirus viral Vector approach, that does not mean it's proven. And the notion of what is for all intents and purposes merely a phase 1 trial involving a few dozen patients obviating basically Phase 2 and phase 3 is simply a shortcut that no responsible immunologist would ever take. Even in a pandemic. As someone once said you wouldn't want to break your arm patting yourself on the back. And it seems that's what the Russians are doing here.

Speaking as someone that has worked with Adenoviral vectors, I would avoid this vaccine. They are notorious for variable splice products and result in multiple contaminated viral vectors. I did work for 7 years with these vectors, and at one point had to retract a paper because after 2 years of follow up we discovered a contaminate product in with our desired viral vector.

 

[Ludalicious]

Clearly you have NO CLUE how clinical trials work.

The researcher (in this case Russia) submits that info to the site for tracking, and patient recruitment.

It's 100% maintained by the research entity (again, the Russian lab), not anyone in the US.


Clinicaltrials.gov is a wonderful website that while hosted in the USA, is used by researchers world-wide to share research and help recruit patients for clinical trials.


Care to put your foot further in your mouth?

Dont really give a crap how it works. Did I claim to know how vaccines work?

If Russia wants to inject their country with a vaccine for the rest of the world to watch... Let's let them.

Settle down TURBO

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It's going to be interesting to observe the results in Sweden over the next month or so. I'm optimistic that they'll have enough containment measures in place that they'll be able to avoid resumption of widespread community transmission...but we'll see - school will make it difficult. They basically shut down in from the end of June until end of July, so that's probably partially driving the numbers. However, they have been quite strict relative to some countries, so there's also an element of community involvement and a functional public health response driving the reduction in community transmission.

Looking at their testing numbers, my impression is that they surged testing around the end of May which may also be helping to cut off transmission.

I'm fairly sure it's not the 20% of the population with immunity driving it (though that certainly helps!)...however, I'm open to changing my priors if things still look great at the end of September!

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1293241950984757249

 

[bkp_duke]

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1163/5890108

Retrospective study demonstrating corticosteroids reduce the number of days required to be on a ventilator.

"The retrospective study of 117 adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation found that patients receiving methylprednisolone had more ventilator-free days than patients who did not receive steroids (mean, 6.21 ± 7.45 days vs 3.14 ± 6.22 days; P = 0.044). The probability of extubation by day 28 was 45% in the steroid group compared with 21% in the non-steroid group (P = 0.021)."

"The mortality rate was also lower in the methylprednisolone, although it did not achieve statistical significance (19% vs 36%; P = 0.087)."

This correlates well with the information we have about dexamethasone. A RCT is needed to fully validate this, but given the findings in the RCT of dexamethasone, this is promising data.

 

[Daniel in SD]

It's going to be interesting to observe the results in Sweden over the next month or so. I'm optimistic that they'll have enough containment measures in place that they'll be able to avoid resumption of widespread community transmission...but we'll see - school will make it difficult. They basically shut down in from the end of June until end of July, so that's probably partially driving the numbers. However, they have been quite strict relative to some countries, so there's also an element of community involvement and a functional public health response driving the reduction in community transmission.

Looking at their testing numbers, my impression is that they surged testing around the end of May which may also be helping to cut off transmission.

I'm fairly sure it's not the 20% of the population with immunity driving it (though that certainly helps!)...however, I'm open to changing my priors if things still look great at the end of September!

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1293241950984757249

View attachment 575063

Also, the 20% number is BS (unless you believe that all data is just an opinion and equally valid). I think there was a study of blood donors that showed that but they accidentally mixed in blood from people donating convalescent plasma.
They did another study and found 7.3% by late April with lower levels in other parts of the country. Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts
Första resultaten från pågående undersökning av antikroppar för covid-19-virus — Folkhälsomyndigheten

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - hour ago: Big Ten postpones the 2020 football season — becoming the first Power Five conference to suspend fall sports

Edit - ESPN: Pac-12 postpones fall sports, eyes next year

 

[dfwatt]

Not trying to solve the world in one post my friend.

Understood, and not trying to slam you for not being an expert, but the experts (not just here but world wide) would see these short cuts as literally disqualifying. If this were Ebola, and i knew I was going to be exposed near term to it, and there was no other choice, I might be willing to try something with this little professional scientific vetting and review. Otherwise, no thanks!!

 

[bkp_duke]

@dfwatt - have you seen this?

https://www.psychiatrist.com/JCP/article/Pages/2020/v81/20l13476.aspx

Came in on one of my medical news feeds:
"Chloroquine Linked to Serious Psychiatric Side Effects"

"In COVID-19 patients who may still be [undergoing treatment] with chloroquine, close psychiatric assessment and monitoring should be performed"

"These events included amnesia, delirium, hallucinations, depression, and loss of consciousness"
Chloroquine Linked to Serious Psychiatric Side Effects