Coronavirus

[N5329K]

For anyone hoping for warm temperatures to slow down community spread, this study suggests that will not be particularly effective. Nutshell: this virus survives 98 degrees F on hard surfaces for two to three days. More here:
Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’, study says
Robin

 

[KarenRei]

You still have a curve over time comparing the regions with one having a higher absolute number and a different shape over the same time frame.

Except that you don't. You still have the pretense that the denominator is unaffected by region-specific parameters, and that you're seeing real difference in the numerator. Except that you can't claim that at all. The ratio being calculated will vary wildly depending on how testing is conducted from region to region. Regions that are dealing with an overload and community spread will be focusing their efforts on severe cases checking into the hospital. Regions which are in preventive mode will be focused on testing people who have been exposed to known cases.

You simply cannot run the numbers the way it's being done above. Not with any scientific validity whatsoever. And by attempting to do that, it proves that Musk's complaints about amateur epidemiology deserve to have been made.

My only issue with Musk's statements is that, while correct and well warranted, they didn't conclude with an encouragement (regardless of these sort of erroneous comparisons and extrapolations that people on the internet have been making) to flatten the curve of the disease, for the sake of those in their lives (and their loved ones) who are more vulnerable.

One should neither hype the disease up nor down. It is what it is. Not an ordinary flu, but not the apocalypse. A matter for concern and caution, but not a matter for panic and hoarding. A matter that does require some lifestyle changes (of both individuals and businesses), but does not require (apart from the tiny percentage in home quarantine at any given time) locking yourself indoors and abandoning society, or shutting down the global economy.

 

[KarenRei]

My wife provided this update to me from the Infectious Disease Association of California (IDAC) Northern California Winter Symposium on Saturday 3/7

Great post!

Fever was not very prominent in several cases

Can you define "several"? Last I saw, fever was the most common symptom associated with the disease, present in something like 90% of cases. And transmission from asymptomatic cases (including lack of fever) appears to be rare. Did they have any new information to suggest otherwise?

5. To date, patients with severe disease are most all (excepting those whose families didn’t sign consent) getting Remdesivir from Gilead through compassionate use.

Wow, that's news! I had only heard of the one case. Do you know if this is happening elsewhere in the world?

However, the expectation is that avenue for getting the drug will likely close shortly. It will be expected that patients would have to enroll in either Gilead’s RCT (5 vs 10 days of Remdesivir) or the NIH’s “Adaptive” RCT (Remdesivir vs. Placebo).

Any info about when Remdesivir's Phase 3 trial is expected to complete?

6. If our local MCHD lab ran out of test kits we could use Quest labs to test. Their test is 24-48 hour turn-around-time. Both Quest and ordering physician would be required to notify Public Health immediately with any positive results.

What's the current protocol for deciding who to test? Patient starts getting minor flu symptoms... where does it progress to (and what sort of location / travel history / contacts etc) do they have to have before tests get ordered?

Is Quest capacity-limited? Sounds like they're not, right?

7. At facilities that had significant numbers of exposed healthcare workers they did allow those with low and moderate risk exposures to return to work well before 14 days. Only HCW with highest risk exposures were excluded for almost the full 14 days (I think 9 days).

Probabilistic management. Glad to see it.

One heavily affected hospital in San Jose area is placing all “undifferentiated pneumonia” patients not meeting criteria for COVID testing in contact+droplet isolation for 2-3 days while seeing how they respond to empiric treatment and awaiting additional results.

It's posts like these that help restore my faith that the US healthcare system is still able to handle things competently, despite some high-profile screwups and a broken system of medical insurance coverage.

 

[Dr. J]

Big deal.

Yes. Yes, it is.

 

[Dr. J]

actually a good topic for discussion. IS china truly to blame? could this have happened anywhere in the world? was it just mere chance? or something about china that make it unique and originating from there?

people are angry and the whole world is 'messed up' (to put it mildly), right now.

we are trying to deal with it - but we also are quite angry from all this, IF it could have been prevented.

problem is - china is opaque. we may never really know.

The Spanish flu (1918 epidemic) probably originated in Haskell County, Kansas. How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America | History | Smithsonian Magazine

The more you know....

 

[KarenRei]

This thing will die down in 2-4 weeks. Big deal. We currently aren't seeing the doomsday scenarios played out in the numbers.

This whole thing reminds me of our irrational fear of flying vs driving. Maybe I'll be wrong, but it just feels that way, given the numbers.

Alt-text: "I actually came in the middle so I don't know what topic we're briefing on" "The same slides work for like half of them."

 

[deonb]

Sacramento taking the other side of that bet.

County Announces New Mitigation Efforts COVID-19

The crazy thing about not doing more widespread testing on mild symptoms and potential infections - we're also missing knowing who already recovered from this.

The most successful treatment so far in China is with convalescent plasma therapy. But doing that requires plasma donations from people who have recovered already. And since there isn't a antigen test yet, testing for the disease during the height of infection is the only way to actually create a list of eligible donors.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Lombardy vs the rest of Italy detected cases fatality rate. Lombardy has reached the inflection point of overloading the local HC system.

View attachment 520073

Here's some numbers from Swedish papers this morning about Italy

There's a study of 105 of the 460 that has died in Italy from the regions of Lombardiet, Veneto, Emilia Romagna och Marche.

Average age of dead 81 yrs

73% male

Two thirds had numerous other serious conditions.

Of those dead
14 % was 90+
42 % was 80-89
34 % was 70-79
10 % was under 70

Seems like the reason Italy has so many dead compared to most other countries is likely that it got a foothold in the hospitals.

 

[bkp_duke]

Here's some numbers from Swedish papers this morning about Italy

There's a study of 105 of the 460 that has died in Italy from the regions of Lombardiet, Veneto, Emilia Romagna och Marche.

Average age of dead 81 yrs

73% male

Two thirds had numerous other serious conditions.

Of those dead
14 % was 90+
42 % was 80-89
34 % was 70-79
10 % was under 70

Seems like the reason Italy has so many dead compared to most other countries is likely that it got a foothold in the hospitals.

This disease is looking more and more like a culling of the elderly. Lets hope vaccine trials go well.

 

[cusetownusa]

Here's some numbers from Swedish papers this morning about Italy

There's a study of 105 of the 460 that has died in Italy from the regions of Lombardiet, Veneto, Emilia Romagna och Marche.

Average age of dead 81 yrs

73% male

Two thirds had numerous other serious conditions.

Of those dead
14 % was 90+
42 % was 80-89
34 % was 70-79
10 % was under 70

Seems like the reason Italy has so many dead compared to most other countries is likely that it got a foothold in the hospitals.

Interesting...wonder what the stats of all the US deaths are. I hope places with lots of elderly sick people like nursing homes and hospitals take extra precautions not to bring the disease into the places, allowing it to spread through the population.

 

[KarenRei]

Here's some numbers from Swedish papers this morning about Italy

There's a study of 105 of the 460 that has died in Italy from the regions of Lombardiet, Veneto, Emilia Romagna och Marche.

Average age of dead 81 yrs

73% male

Two thirds had numerous other serious conditions.

Of those dead
14 % was 90+
42 % was 80-89
34 % was 70-79
10 % was under 70

Seems like the reason Italy has so many dead compared to most other countries is likely that it got a foothold in the hospitals.

Indeed. Reports are that doctors were being lax with standard disease control protocols even relative to non-outbreak conditions. Lots of infected medical staff transmitted it to patients.

Semi-related, but The Daily Show had a great quip related to the age dependence of victims:

"But I'm not old."
"We'll let the coronavirus be the judge of that."

 

[Dr. J]

wonder what the stats of all the US deaths are.

There have only been 27 deaths, 23 in Washington state, most of those from the Life Care Center, so....80, give or take.

If you can believe this guy...
US surgeon general says he thinks coronavirus is contained in certain areas of the country
"We now know more about who is at risk. Average age of death for people from coronavirus is 80...."

 

[dl003]

There have only been 27 deaths, 23 in Washington state, most of those from the Life Care Center, so....80, give or take.

If you can believe this guy...
US surgeon general says he thinks coronavirus is contained in certain areas of the country
"We now know more about who is at risk. Average age of death for people from coronavirus is 80...."

Exactly,
And it's not like the US is oblivious. We reported the first cases of coronavirus over a month ago. I'm not taking this lightly but I don't see reasons to be alarmed yet. Hopefully with more test kits going out this week we'll get a reasonable explosion of cases and get it over with, whatever hellish drop let it be done.

 

[UCF3]

Anyone else waiting for POTUS to catch covid19 before unleashing the rest of their dry powder?

 

[Dr. J]

Exactly,
And it's not like the US is oblivious. We reported the first cases of coronavirus over a month ago. I'm not taking this lightly but I don't see reasons to be alarmed yet. Hopefully with more test kits going out this week we'll get a reasonable explosion of cases and get it over with, whatever hellish drop let it be done.

I guess my point was that average age of death in the US at this point in time is not necessarily representative of demographic risk in society at large--because nearly all the early deaths were in one unfortunate location. The SG says age 60 and above are at higher risk. Seems true, but once again, I'm pretty sure he hews closely the party line.

 

[ProfTournesol]

I would not rule out $420 or low $400s.
People here talk about the rave cave at Giga Berlin while people in Italy are dying every day more and more.
Please read an italian news paper to get first hand info on what is going on currently in Italy (use google translate).
In the rest of Europe confirmed cases spraed about everywhere by now.
Numbers will go up exponentially at the beginning like in Italy.
What could be the reasons that in the US all this mell will happen slower or at a lower scale?

not going up exponentially:

maybe when it really hits the us....

 

[Dr. J]

What could be the reasons that in the US all this mell will happen slower or at a lower scale?

Dumb luck. Don't underestimate it.

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

― Yogi Berra

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Yup, the amount of people trying to lecture me on what exponential growth is like (FFS I am a computer programmer... I know what it is), without first checking whether or not this is showing signs of exponential growth is...depressing. I feel like we are in the middle of people subconsciously enjoying the virus, as a sort of interactive disaster movie, always wanting it to get worse, to read more dramatic headlines, feverishly hitting refresh on their browser to see where the next deaths are...predicting the end of times.

Its nuts. I wish they were this worried about climate change, they might all buy a Tesla

 

[ev-enthusiast]

not going up exponentially:
View attachment 520268

maybe when it really hits the us....

Please substract China.

I do not want to talk to much about this topic in the short term thread, but I get the impression that people do not know what is currently going on in Italy (I could not imagine this stuff happening in Italy just a couple of days ago!) and spreading across the rest of Europe.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Dumb luck. Don't underestimate it.

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

― Yogi Berra

I really hope the US is getting less cases, what could be the reasons?
I've never seen a scenario for a next global recession, but what are the odds this is not turning out to develop into the next global recession?