Coronavirus

[Thekiwi]

I haven’t seen much explanation for why the countries where Coronavirus first hit are seeing fewer and fewer cases now. China is reporting less than a hundred new cases a day, down from thousands a day. This is a country of 1.4 billion people. 80,000 Chinese have tested positive for corona virus. But that means only one out of approximately 20,000 Chinese have tested positive. Why not more?

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Deaths peak about 10d-2wks after cases peak, but then show similar decline.
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Similar findings in South Korea. Fewer new cases every day.

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If other countries follow this model (approximately 3 weeks from first death reported to peak deaths), then Italy could get worse for another week, US for 2 more weeks, before seeing a reduction.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 114,422 Cases and 4,027 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

because China applied extreme measure to lockdown people in infected areas - and they don’t have idiots in their national media influencing the feeble minded to try and downplay the real danger in an attempt to limit political damage.

*cough*Trump*cough*FoxNews*cough*

 

[linux-works]

*cough*Trump*cough*FoxNews*cough*

you are now quarantined.

its for your safety. and ours.

 

[linux-works]

All of Italy is now quarantined. Yes, the entire country is now under quarantine.

All of Italy placed under coronavirus lockdown

"sorry folks, Italy's closed. moose out front shoulda toldya"

(do they have mooses in italy? oh well.)

 

[EVNow]

Sobering news. Given enough time, almost everyone gets infected (older people with under lying conditions).

Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington has received new #coronavirus test results for 35 residents:

31 positive
1 negative
3 inconclusive

They are still awaiting test results for the remaining 20 Life Care residents.​

 

[ohmman]

Sobering news. Given enough time, almost everyone gets infected (older people with under lying conditions).

Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington has received new #coronavirus test results for 35 residents:

31 positive
1 negative
3 inconclusive

They are still awaiting test results for the remaining 20 Life Care residents.​

Almost everyone trapped together in close quarters, in this particular case. Not almost everyone, as far as we know. You said you weren’t trying to extrapolate the results from Life Care to the general population earlier.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Sacramento county in California has essentially skipped containment:

County Announces New Mitigation Efforts COVID-19

The following recommendations are effective immediately, and will extend through March 31, 2020:

• Quarantine: With the shift from containment to mitigation, it is no longer necessary for someone who has been in contact with someone with COVID-19 to quarantine for 14 days. This applies to the general public, as well as health care workers and first responders. However, if they develop respiratory symptoms, they should stay home in order to protect those who are well.

 

[EVNow]

High numbers, not low numbers. Because of the far higher rate of undiagnosed cases, since testing is biased toward severe cases when you're far from a universal-testing scenario (and we are very far from a universal-testing scenario).

Now - as @Doggydogworld explained, you get low numbers in the beginning. This is because it takes time for cases to resolve.

Lets say first day you got 2 cases and day 5, 8 cases. On day 6, there are total of 10 cases - but because it takes 5 days to resolve, only the cases we got on day 1 got resolved. Lets say 50% fatality. CFR=50%. But since its an ongoing, raising outbreak, we get a CFR of only 10%.

If someone is not diagnosed as Covid, is this a case at all ? It should just count in IFR, not CFR.

IFR as the link says, if difficult to determine. But there are various methods and you can get a range within confidence intervals using normal stats.

 

[EVNow]

Almost everyone trapped together in close quarters, in this particular case. Not almost everyone, as far as we know. You said you weren’t trying to extrapolate the results from Life Care to the general population earlier.

(older people with under lying conditions) and given enough time. Not extrapolation - but we need to take some lessons.

What this means is - people (administrators, basically) should be very careful dealing with this in similar nursing homes.

We have two other nursing homes with infections now - hopefully they take better care and use better isolation techniques.

 

[powertoold]

This thing will die down in 2-4 weeks. Big deal. We currently aren't seeing the doomsday scenarios played out in the numbers.

This whole thing reminds me of our irrational fear of flying vs driving. Maybe I'll be wrong, but it just feels that way, given the numbers.

 

[EVNow]

I haven’t seen much explanation for why the countries where Coronavirus first hit are seeing fewer and fewer cases now. China is reporting less than a hundred new cases a day, down from thousands a day. This is a country of 1.4 billion people. 80,000 Chinese have tested positive for corona virus. But that means only one out of approximately 20,000 Chinese have tested positive. Why not more?

Because China implemented aggressive (very, very aggressive infact) isolation policies. They welded the doors and windows of apartment complex with any infected patients shut.

I Korea they did an extensive and aggressive contact tracing and isolation - even though they had a great deal of difficulty because of a secretive sect.

What this means is - interventions work. That is what makes the US case a headscratcher. Apparently they think it will just go away on its own.

 

[eevee-fan]

Because China implemented aggressive (very, very aggressive infact) isolation policies. They welded the doors and windows of apartment complex with any infected patients shut.

I Korea they did an extensive and aggressive contact tracing and isolation - even though they had a great deal of difficulty because of a secretive sect.

What this means is - interventions work. That is what makes the US case a headscratcher. Apparently they think it will just go away on its own.

I don't know why we are not listening to people who study this stuff. Isolation to stop the spread is the only thing that works. Guess Sacramento is recommending people pray hard.

 

[EVNow]

Sobering news. Given enough time, almost everyone gets infected (older people with under lying conditions).

Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington has received new #coronavirus test results for 35 residents:

31 positive
1 negative
3 inconclusive

They are still awaiting test results for the remaining 20 Life Care residents.​

In related news - out of 9 tests among fire fighters who attended at LifeCare - only 1 tested positive. Rest 8 were negative. This is encouraging.

ps : Sad that rest of them haven't been tested yet. Same for the staff at LifeCare.

 

[EVNow]

This thing will die down in 2-4 weeks. Big deal. We currently aren't seeing the doomsday scenarios played out in the numbers.

This whole thing reminds me of our irrational fear of flying vs driving. Maybe I'll be wrong, but it just feels that way, given the numbers.

I sure hope so. I had sold a couple of 820 puts (when sp was at 920), that are down $200

 

[KSilver2000]

If other countries follow this model (approximately 3 weeks from first death reported to peak deaths), then Italy could get worse for another week, US for 2 more weeks, before seeing a reduction.

That’s a very big IF. So far, this country does not seem to prepare such drastic measures even if it’s shown to be effective.

Why we aren't at Level 5 right now, before we become the next Italy, is somewhat baffling to me. There will be thousands of cases next week and the local authorities are still dragging their heels in the emergency response here.

This country is more worried about taking care of the stock market and certain friends in hard hit industries first before tackling whatever that Coronabeer bug is.

Now, we’re talking about a payroll tax cut. As if the virus is going to go in hiding because of that.

 

[KSilver2000]

This thing will die down in 2-4 weeks. Big deal. We currently aren't seeing the doomsday scenarios played out in the numbers.

You don’t get numbers without tests. So far, we haven’t tested much. Let’s see what happens when those beautiful tests, that the president said is all out there and available to anyone that asks, are actually used.

 

[eevee-fan]

Now, we’re talking about a payroll tax cut. As if the virus is going to go in hiding because of that.

When you have a hammer, everything is a nail.

 

[dhanson865]

So at this time there are about 4000 dead we know about in this deadly virus outbreak in about 8 weeks Worldwide .
Yet the 400,000 deaths mostly children in Africa from malaria (every year) is not in the news as it’s become the norm .What a world we live in...

I've got 6 words for you, see if you can catch the reference and follow the logic:

put the mask on yourself first

 

[EVNow]

That’s a very big IF. So far, this country does not seem to prepare such drastic measures even if it’s shown to be effective.

WA will be the test case. We know Inslee gets it - can he take action ?

In remarks on MSNBC, Inslee said that genetic modeling by the University of Washington suggests there could be “basically in the ballpark” of 1,000 cases out there.

That number could grow rapidly if measures aren’t taken seriously to slow the growth of the illness the coronavirus causes, known as COVID-19, Inslee said.

“When you double whatever that number is and you double it every week, these things can explode,” Inslee said. “And as I’ve indicated, if it’s 1,000 people today, it will be 64,000 people in week seven.

“And so that’s why all of us have to be dedicated to making decisions earlier in this epidemic, even when it may not seem overwhelming at the moment,” Inslee added. “And that’s what we’re working through right now.”

….

Seattle area public-health officials are “at the ready” to start ordering involuntary isolation and quarantines and are considering cancellation of major public events, with information coming soon, a top official said Monday.​

 

[eevee-fan]

WA will be the test case. We know Inslee gets it - can he take action ?

In remarks on MSNBC, Inslee said that genetic modeling by the University of Washington suggests there could be “basically in the ballpark” of 1,000 cases out there.

That number could grow rapidly if measures aren’t taken seriously to slow the growth of the illness the coronavirus causes, known as COVID-19, Inslee said.

“When you double whatever that number is and you double it every week, these things can explode,” Inslee said. “And as I’ve indicated, if it’s 1,000 people today, it will be 64,000 people in week seven.

“And so that’s why all of us have to be dedicated to making decisions earlier in this epidemic, even when it may not seem overwhelming at the moment,” Inslee added. “And that’s what we’re working through right now.”

….

Seattle area public-health officials are “at the ready” to start ordering involuntary isolation and quarantines and are considering cancellation of major public events, with information coming soon, a top official said Monday.​

Sacramento taking the other side of that bet.

County Announces New Mitigation Efforts COVID-19

 

[KSilver2000]

Sacramento taking the other side of that bet.

County Announces New Mitigation Efforts COVID-19

This is exactly the kind of sugary dumb thing how a single entity ruins it for everyone else that is actually trying to make a concerted effort. Like that one kid in school whose parents drop him off at school as if its an urgent care center, and in turn infects a few others and all their parents have to stay home from work.

Sorry, now that I have kids, this kind of behavior is one of my biggest pet peeves. We’ve had a family at the school get a warning about this because it happened twice already.

We’ll never get to Asia-level preparedness with this kind of attitude. Just following the lead in DC I guess.