Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Counterpoint, it's only actually authorized for testing symptomatic people which seems pretty useless.
It's too bad a multi billion dollar company could only find 2 asymptomatic COVID positive people in the US to test it on. At least it had 100% success! Presumably Abbott does know how well it works for asymptomatic cases? Who knows...

Emphasis on “properly executed.”

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Wow, that's a very confident statement.

Sounds like something someone in the WH would say.

The White House wouldn’t have the enormous caveats though. Note I said “if,” and I didn’t say it was ending because it was “burning itself out” or “mutating to be more benign,” or “everyone has had it now,” or, “t-cell immunity is suppressing further spread” or “like a miracle it is disappearing.”

COVID could ALWAYS have been over quickly (I said this back in March or April). It simply required an actual competent government approach and a belief that ending it was both possible and desirable.

But here we are!

 

[dfwatt]

Yeah, this test in these quantities, properly executed, and with appropriate other supports to track and trace positive tests (reverse tracing is more important than forward tracing!) will effectively end the pandemic in the United States.

The end is near. COVID is nearly over. If these quantities (150 million by end of December) transpire, COVID will be over by some time in December. Lots of caveats as outlined above. At-home use with a coordinated reporting system with provisions for positive people to isolate away from home would be nice. Could have a serial number/QR code on each test and track test distribution and allow QR code scanning with results and actual location reporting (if user desired, otherwise point of sale could be tracked) to report to central database, to aid on statistics gathering, and quickly identify approximate hot spots. Would be helpful! Lots of possibilities and likely better ideas with instant tests! Gathering actual test results would be important though (probably part of the reason it is not available for at home use).

Bit of a race against time with school reopenings though. Hopefully most places just stick with remote schooling (this was not necessary, but the lack of such tests and other support from the gov’t in time for school made it a necessity to keep schools closed to limit spread - federal government and the White House forced schools to remain closed - all states and localities and all citizens wanted them open, but was impossible).

We’ll see how the race goes.

I hope you're right Alan and I wish I shared your optimism. However we've seen such staggering incompetence and malfeasance at the top of the government food chain, such that there really will be no effective Federal leadership. I think you can count on that. Whether the states can collectively organize themselves without Federal help and even with some degree of federal interference which is what is going on right now, remains to be seen. I am encouraged by the fact that there is at least a public awareness building of the critical need for these rapid antigen tests. They are the key tool in the opinion of many. We'll see what happens.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

We'll see what happens.

I’m not holding my breath, even if that would be good training for the feeling when I actually pick up COVID somehow.

 

[madodel]

Whether the states can collectively organize themselves without Federal help and even with some degree of federal interference which is what is going on right now, remains to be seen.

Isn't that what they did 210 years ago when they drafted the Constitution? Though without the interference, so that would make things a bit more difficult this time around.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I really like ship studies. https://jcm.asm.org/content/jcm/early/2020/08/21/JCM.02107-20.full.pdf

• They administered PCR tests and antibody tests to all 122 crew members before departure.
• 6 crew members were sero positive on the Abbott assay. Presumably no one was PCR positive!
• Unfortunately someone was coming down with COVID-19 and upon return 104 people tested positive for COVID-19 (85% percent attack rate! weak T-cells )
• 3 of the people who tested sero positive were also infected!
• They went back and tested the initial 6 sero positive samples for neutralizing antibodies and found that only the 3 people with neutralizing antibodies were uninfected. Presumably the other 3 were false positives (not necessarily surprising since the specificity of the Abbott antibody test is not 100%). Another possibility is that the antibody test picked up someone in the early stages of infection that the PCR test missed.

Anyway good news for vaccine development since people who have received vaccines have also developed neutralizing antibodies and in higher quantities than measured in the 3 presumably immune people on the ship. I wish they would go back and test everyone monthly to get a better idea of how sensitive the Abbott antibody test is over time since there is speculation that it doesn't detect asymptomatic or mild cases.

 

[PACEMD]

Isn't that what they did 210 years ago when they drafted the Constitution? Though without the interference, so that would make things a bit more difficult this time around.

Even getting the required 9 of the 13 original states to ratify the US constitution was no small task........what was once a simple divide now at times seems an abyss.......

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The end is near. COVID is nearly over.

Whoa folks, I didn’t say it was already over! I am sure it is fine because everyone was tested.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The US is between Brunei and Qatar, below all the Scandinavia utopias, etc.

I can finally report that we'll outdo the last of the Scandinavian utopias, Sweden, in deaths per capita (not just cases per capita) sometime next week! Should move up to the 6th spot amongst countries with over a million citizens, from a current ranking of 8th, passing Italy and Sweden! It'll be tougher to pass Chile but we might do it a bit later - but probably gonna take a while.

UK and Spain are a bit further off, but definitely looks like we're on track to surpass them in a few more weeks, probably faster than we surpass Chile. Will be very hard to get to #1 - Peru and Belgium have set a very high bar. I believe in America though.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I am sure it is fine because everyone was tested.

Correction, cowboys! I made the understandable mistake of giving the White House too much credit. Most people were not tested. It was "logistically unfeasible." No basic screening either. COVID is OVER.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-convention-covid-testing/2020/08/27/44b53cda-e8c4-11ea-bc79-834454439a44_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-bignews4_storyb-masks-1140p:homepage/story-ans

At least it was outside and there was a stiff breeze. Probably won't be too bad. The restrooms would be a sh**show in more ways than one, though, is my guess. Personally I would have found a bush on the White House lawn somewhere, to relieve myself, if I were to stumble into that sort of situation, as is bound to happen. Either #1 or #2, it wouldn't matter. It's the people's house.

 

[wdolson]

The COVID 7 Day map reminded me about Sturgis where a motorcycle event attended by hundreds of thousands in South Dakota the second week of August. Turns out they have already identified only a little over 100 cases tied directly to the event held there a couple weeks ago.
Officials connect Sturgis Motorcycle Rally to coronavirus cases in eight states

In addition to North and South Dakota, states seeing COVID-19 cases linked to the Sturgis event include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Montana, Wyoming and Washington.​

My partner is still friends which her ex and they were into motorcycles. They even built a few custom bikes. Her ex had been reading about Sturgis and mentioned to her the other day that there will be a lot of cheap Harleys available in about 6 months.

 

[bkp_duke]

My partner is still friends which her ex and they were into motorcycles. They even built a few custom bikes. Her ex had been reading about Sturgis and mentioned to her the other day that there will be a lot of cheap Harleys available in about 6 months.

Highly doubtful with a ~0.5% IFR. You might see a few bikes, but not many over the baseline number available.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Correction, cowboys! I made the understandable mistake of giving the White House too much credit. Most people were not tested. It was "logistically unfeasible." No basic screening either. COVID is OVER.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-convention-covid-testing/2020/08/27/44b53cda-e8c4-11ea-bc79-834454439a44_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-bignews4_storyb-masks-1140p:homepage/story-ans

CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta fears attendees of Trump's RNC speech will get COVID-19 and 'may even die'

If this

"Everybody is going to catch this thing eventually."

is the prevalent opinion it's no surprise.

 

[NikolaACDC]

I can finally report that we'll outdo the last of the Scandinavian utopias, Sweden, in deaths per capita (not just cases per capita) sometime next week! Should move up to the 6th spot amongst countries with over a million citizens, from a current ranking of 8th, passing Italy and Sweden! It'll be tougher to pass Chile but we might do it a bit later - but probably gonna take a while.

UK and Spain are a bit further off, but definitely looks like we're on track to surpass them in a few more weeks, probably faster than we surpass Chile. Will be very hard to get to #1 - Peru and Belgium have set a very high bar. I believe in America though.

Trump accidentally says the U.S. 'pioneered the fatality rate' — among other verbal slips

Now we know it - it's intended that way.
From the horse's mouth:
""Thanks to advances, we have pioneered the fatality rate."

 

[bkp_duke]

Came into my medical news feed today:
Vitamin K insufficiency may be a modifiable risk factor of severe COVID-19

I would like to see this one teased out further. I don't expect Vitamin K to be a "cure all", but it could very well be something that is disease modifying which could be used to save lives and lower the overall mortality rate.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Trump accidentally says the U.S. 'pioneered the fatality rate' — among other verbal slips

Now we know it - it's intended that way.
From the horse's mouth:
""Thanks to advances, we have pioneered the fatality rate."

I seem to recall a lot of complaints about Obama using a teleprompter.
I think Trump changed the wording because what was written was not really true and he always wants to tell it to people like it is.
The speech writer wrote "Thanks to advances we have pioneered, the fatality rate has been reduced by 80 percent since April."
We may have reduced the case fatality rate by 80% since April but that is mostly due to more testing. The infection fatality rate has not fallen 80% (my guess is about 50%).

 

[Doggydogworld]

I really like ship studies. https://jcm.asm.org/content/jcm/early/2020/08/21/JCM.02107-20.full.pdf

• They administered PCR tests and antibody tests to all 122 crew members before departure.
• 6 crew members were sero positive on the Abbott assay. Presumably no one was PCR positive!
• Unfortunately someone was coming down with COVID-19 and upon return 104 people tested positive for COVID-19 (85% percent attack rate! weak T-cells )
• 3 of the people who tested sero positive were also infected!
• They went back and tested the initial 6 sero positive samples for neutralizing antibodies and found that only the 3 people with neutralizing antibodies were uninfected. Presumably the other 3 were false positives (not necessarily surprising since the specificity of the Abbott antibody test is not 100%). Another possibility is that the antibody test picked up someone in the early stages of infection that the PCR test missed.

Anyway good news for vaccine development since people who have received vaccines have also developed neutralizing antibodies and in higher quantities than measured in the 3 presumably immune people on the ship. I wish they would go back and test everyone monthly to get a better idea of how sensitive the Abbott antibody test is over time since there is speculation that it doesn't detect asymptomatic or mild cases.

Yes, ships are good isolated environments. No symptom info in this study, which is very unfortunate, especially considering the long term testing (up to Day 50) performed. But we do know:

• Only 3 of 122 (2.5%) had neutralizing antibodies, so no herd immunity in WA in May
• 85% attack rate in ~2 weeks again shows Rt can be very high in the right environment
• Attack rate, consistent with other closed environments like prisons, argues against protection from cross-reactivity

Turning to the new Abbott test, I see it being deployed in schools, workplaces and at events. 150m tests doesn't mean 150m people tested because there will be lots of repeat testing. Maybe home testing will come later, but that's much more likely with a spit test IMHO.

 

[JRP3]

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article245322115.html

Two attendees and two local support staff at the Republican National Convention in Charlotte tested positive for COVID-19, Mecklenburg County and GOP officials announced Friday.

 

[SMAlset]

Gov. Newsom announces new standards for opening. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-28/california-counties-new-reopening-plan-gavin-newsom-coronavirus

Is there one site to check on each Calif county’s covid cases per 100,000?


Foster Farms chicken plant in Livingston (Merced county) has 8 deaths and at least 358 covid cases and is process of being shut down. Chicken plant in California to shut down over coronavirus outbreak

 

[madodel]

Lab confirms first case of coronavirus reinfection in the U.S. | Live Science

Interesting that the new infection course was more severe.