Coronavirus

[heltok]

How much test and trace does Sweden do now? I know you started testing many more people in June.

Testing is getting decent, think we are at ~100k tests/week with positivity rate falling while tests are increasing. It’s not perfect but it has went from only sick people in hospitals to that most people can get a test within a week depending on location the same day.


Tracing has been sporadic but is gonna start soonish according to gov. According to them we were in phase where tracing was not needed/useful but now I guess we are. Mostly it has been that the infected are recommended to contact their contacts themselves.

Isolation is nonexistant.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Testing is getting decent, think we are at ~100k tests/week with positivity rate falling while tests are increasing. It’s not perfect but it has went from only sick people in hospitals to that most people can get a test within a week depending on location the same day.

Tracing has been sporadic but is gonna start soonish according to gov. According to them we were in phase where tracing was not needed/useful but now I guess we are. Mostly it has been that the infected are recommended to contact their contacts themselves.

Isolation is nonexistant.

What do you mean by isolation? Presumably infected people are not going out in public and getting together with family and friends.

 

[heltok]

What do you mean by isolation? Presumably infected people are not going out in public and getting together with family and friends.

With isolation I mean like in Singapore/Hongkong/China where people who may have been in contact with someone infected are quarantined.

Here people who have been in contact with infected are told to observe symptoms and if they are sick stay at home. We are not isolating people who have been in contact with known infected people. Even families with sick people in the household are not told to isolate.

 

[Daniel in SD]

With isolation I mean like in Singapore/Hongkong/China where people who may have been in contact with someone infected are quarantined.

Here people who have been in contact with infected are told to observe symptoms and if they are sick stay at home. We are not isolating people who have been in contact with known infected people. Even families with sick people in the household are not told to isolate.

Presumably people in contact with infected people are being tested and self-isolating if they are positive? Or is most of the testing on workers in contact with high risk populations?

 

[EVCollies]

1020

To be fair, numbers in Sweden have been falling and are starting to get pretty low. Gyms have been opened, nobody is wearing a mask, schools are reopening, restaurants are crowded, hotels are busy etc.

Latest figure is that we have 14 people in total in intensive care, it has been falling like 20-30%/week for the last months. Clearly R is <1 even without us taking any strong measures.

I was initially very critical of our strategy. With hindsight I am still critical but much less so.

I would tribute us having R<1 even without masks etc to a few different factors:
1. Pretty low R0 here due to few people in an average household, social distancing being normal even before the virus
2. Herd immunity due to pareto effects, 10% of the population doing 90% of social interactions, these people getting the virus first. (Numbers just made up)
3. Maybe lucked out on previous T-cell immunity
4. Reasonable general health, obesity, poverty etc being rather low.

I'm glad your country is doing well.
Looking at IMHE, appears social distancing was implemented in mid-March resulted in a decrease in disease in April.
Their prediction without increased mask usage doesn't look so good, but COVID predictions seem very unreliable.

 

[heltok]

Presumably people in contact with infected people are being tested and self-isolating if they are positive? Or is most of the testing on workers in contact with high risk populations?
View attachment 584016

We don’t test people who have been in contact with sick people, only people with symptoms. The official guideline has always been ”if you have symptoms, stay at home”.

The testing of people who have been in contact with infected has been limited to people working in health care. We didn’t have enough tests so the priority was to test sick people and they did some mental gymnastics to defend this and then stuck with the explanation that their official guideline ”stay at home if you have symptoms” was enough.

A few regions such as Scania had less infected so they did some minor tracing but that was a far cry from what countries such as China did.

 

[Daniel in SD]

1020

I'm glad your country is doing well.
Looking at IMHE, appears social distancing was implemented in mid-March resulted in a decrease in disease in April.
Their prediction without increased mask usage doesn't look so good, but COVID predictions seem very unreliable.

I still contend that IHME has always been garbage. It's a glorified curve fit.
On April 7th they predicted with 95% certainty that COVID deaths would be ZERO in California on May 23rd. Whoever is responsible for publishing that should never be heard from again.
I predict that what happens in Sweden this fall and winter will be a function of how they behave. It is certainly possible to avoid a second wave without masks, though I'm pretty sure it's easier with them.

 

[dhanson865]

After Weeks Of Resistance And Citing Privacy Laws, Tennessee Will Release School Outbreak Data | WPLN News - Nashville Public Radio

The website is expected to go live on Tuesday, and it will have a map and search function of school districts and specific schools. The Education Department says it will be updated every Tuesday.

 

[bkp_duke]

After Weeks Of Resistance And Citing Privacy Laws, Tennessee Will Release School Outbreak Data | WPLN News - Nashville Public Radio

 

[madodel]

Trump’s Vaccine Can’t Be Trusted

State and territorial governors across America have received a letter dated Aug. 27 from the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Robert Redfield, instructing them to grant facilities and licensing to a private contractor, McKesson Co., for mass immunizations. “CDC urgently requests your assistance in expediting applications for these distribution facilities,” Redfield wrote, “and, if necessary, asks that you consider waiving requirements that would prevent these facilities from becoming fully operational by November 1, 2020.”​

 

[bkp_duke]

Trump’s Vaccine Can’t Be Trusted

State and territorial governors across America have received a letter dated Aug. 27 from the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Robert Redfield, instructing them to grant facilities and licensing to a private contractor, McKesson Co., for mass immunizations. “CDC urgently requests your assistance in expediting applications for these distribution facilities,” Redfield wrote, “and, if necessary, asks that you consider waiving requirements that would prevent these facilities from becoming fully operational by November 1, 2020.”​

Political clickbait.

ANY vaccine should be judged upon it's Phase 2 and 3 results. Everything else is just pandering to a political base.

 

[dfwatt]

@dfwatt - you will probably like the following article.

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

Very good summary of the molecular pathway progression, and a great example of molecular computing put to good use.

Thanks for the heads up on that. I had seen it earlier but I had forgotten about it and this prompted me to take another look at it. Very interesting stuff. Bromelain is a natural inhibitor of Bradykinin. There is a combination of bromelain and quercetin available for cheap money. Might be worth taking over the counter.

 

[bkp_duke]

Thanks for the heads up on that. I had seen it earlier but I had forgotten about it and this prompted me to take another look at it. Very interesting stuff. Bromelain is a natural inhibitor of Bradykinin. There is a combination of bromelain and quercetin available for cheap money. Might be worth taking over the counter.

Bradykinin storm does fit the data better than cytokine storm, although there is a ton of overlap in those pathways.

Regardless, the description of Jell-O like consistency of fluid in the lungs re-affirmed my social-distancing and mask-wearing practices.

 

[dfwatt]

Bradykinin storm does fit the data better than cytokine storm, although there is a ton of overlap in those pathways.

Regardless, the description of Jell-O like consistency of fluid in the lungs re-affirmed my social-distancing and mask-wearing practices.

Yes for sure. And of course it's silly to think of these things as mutually exclusive as opposed to synergistic in a destructive way

 

[CLK350]

@dfwatt - you will probably like the following article.

A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged

Very good summary of the molecular pathway progression, and a great example of molecular computing put to good use.

Noted that passage " ..Interestingly, Jacobson’s team also suggests vitamin D as a potentially useful Covid-19 drug. The vitamin is involved in the RAS system and could prove helpful by reducing levels of another compound, known as REN. Again, this could stop potentially deadly bradykinin storms from forming. The researchers note that vitamin D has already been shown to help those with Covid-19. .."

That paper on Vit D has apparently been removed - BUT .. coincidentally, there was this item reported today:
Finally Confirmed! Vitamin D Nearly Abolishes ICU Risk in COVID-19 | Chris Masterjohn, PhD

 

[heltok]

Noted that passage " ..Interestingly, Jacobson’s team also suggests vitamin D as a potentially useful Covid-19 drug. The vitamin is involved in the RAS system and could prove helpful by reducing levels of another compound, known as REN. Again, this could stop potentially deadly bradykinin storms from forming. The researchers note that vitamin D has already been shown to help those with Covid-19. .."

That paper on Vit D has apparently been removed - BUT .. coincidentally, there was this item reported today:
Finally Confirmed! Vitamin D Nearly Abolishes ICU Risk in COVID-19 | Chris Masterjohn, PhD

If this is true it is pretty huge. Also it might explain why mortality rates have been falling in Europe since the peak, because we have gone from winter time to summer time where people have higher serum levels of vitamin D. Also it would partly explain why some minorities have higher rates of mortality as they have lower levels of vitamin D.

 

[bkp_duke]

Noted that passage " ..Interestingly, Jacobson’s team also suggests vitamin D as a potentially useful Covid-19 drug. The vitamin is involved in the RAS system and could prove helpful by reducing levels of another compound, known as REN. Again, this could stop potentially deadly bradykinin storms from forming. The researchers note that vitamin D has already been shown to help those with Covid-19. .."

That paper on Vit D has apparently been removed - BUT .. coincidentally, there was this item reported today:
Finally Confirmed! Vitamin D Nearly Abolishes ICU Risk in COVID-19 | Chris Masterjohn, PhD

So, let's dig into the details here.

1) 76 total patients in that RCT. That's a REALLY small number to do statistics on and draw conclusions.
2) Vitamin D levels of the patients were not measured before giving this supplement - having done research, that's a REALLY big omission, one I would call an error.
3) The doses given are absolutely GIGANTIC. I mean, these are doses that I have only written for in patients with genetic bone disorders. There is a reason we don't supercharge the average person with Vitamin D - it's toxic if overdosed.


My take-away from this so far is:
1) The study shows an encouraging result, but needs repeating, in a MUCH larger population (the authors even call their study a "pilot" study).
2) Like all other Vitamins, don't become Vitamin D deficient, it puts you at extra risk
3) This is NOT A CURE - that conclusion cannot be made from this small study
4) Don't go around taking gigantic doses of Vitamin D - this does NOT get pissed out (like Vitamin C overload does), it will accumulate in your tissues and can kill you. Your regular Vitamin D supplement will be just fine for now, but megadoses can be very bad for you.

 

[bkp_duke]

If this is true it is pretty huge. Also it might explain why mortality rates have been falling in Europe since the peak, because we have gone from winter time to summer time where people have higher serum levels of vitamin D. Also it would partly explain why some minorities have higher rates of mortality as they have lower levels of vitamin D.

You are drawing conclusions that the data do not support. This was a 76 person pilot study.

The prevailing strain (mutation) of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in Europe has changed since March, that supports a falling death rate, along with better means of treatment (steroids) more than anything you can attribute to this pilot study.

 

[jerry33]

So, let's dig into the details here.

1) 76 total patients in that RCT. That's a REALLY small number to do statistics on and draw conclusions.
2) Vitamin D levels of the patients were not measured before giving this supplement - having done research, that's a REALLY big omission, one I would call an error.
3) The doses given are absolutely GIGANTIC. I mean, these are doses that I have only written for in patients with genetic bone disorders. There is a reason we don't supercharge the average person with Vitamin D - it's toxic if overdosed.


My take-away from this so far is:
1) The study shows an encouraging result, but needs repeating, in a MUCH larger population (the authors even call their study a "pilot" study).
2) Like all other Vitamins, don't become Vitamin D deficient, it puts you at extra risk
3) This is NOT A CURE - that conclusion cannot be made from this small study
4) Don't go around taking gigantic doses of Vitamin D - this does NOT get pissed out (like Vitamin C overload does), it will accumulate in your tissues and can kill you. Your regular Vitamin D supplement will be just fine for now, but megadoses can be very bad for you.

Quick question on dosage. The table (posted a couple of weeks ago) says 4000 IU is the daily maximum, but the supplements you can buy are almost always 5000 IU. ??

 

[bkp_duke]

Quick question on dosage. The table (posted a couple of weeks ago) says 4000 IU is the daily maximum, but the supplements you can buy are almost always 5000 IU. ??

I have no issues with a dose of that level, just tell your doc you are on it so he/she can draw levels over time to make sure you don't go high.

You can also just skip the dose 1-2 days per week so that your weekly total matches up what 4000 IU/day would give you.

When someone was truly deficient, I would prescribe 50,000 IU doses for them to take till they were back up to normal.