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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
.... because the response is partisan; .... because most of the anti-science nonsense is partisan; For the most part only one party has made freedumb from masks part of their platform. Before the science was clear we needed to ALL wear masks it's hard to fault people for not wearing masks. If you're not wearing a mask in a public indoor space today you're definitely a moron and almost definitely a Trumper.
So we, in a Tesla investors discussion forum, have to keep posting partisan charts to say "hey we were right" every week for the rest of eternity? I get that we have learned things about the virus over time and some people are choosing to ignore those things that we've learned. And that the ignoring of what we've learned is not homogeneous across party lines... But what is the purpose of posting that chart in this thread at this point? Is this thread even informative anymore or is it just another petty place to take political jabs at people?
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
IMHO understanding that one party (currently Democrats) supports and encourages systematic, thorough evaluation of reality then conforming to that reality to achieve the best results while another party (currently Republicans) mocks science and encourages people to steam blindly ahead guided only by ideology is an important distinction. Which will it be? Ideology or Facts?
When you choose ideology over facts people die and the world burns. That needs to stop.
Ideology should be guided by reality. When you allow your ideology to molest your interpretation of reality people die and the world burns. That needs to stop.
And this has what to do with Tesla investors?
I am asking why we are posting charts of infection data starting on some arbitrary date halfway through the pandemic (conveniently after the liberal northeast got their outbreak under control) broken down by party affiliation of the state. What is the purpose? What is being accomplished by posting this chart week after week?
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
.... you realize the title of this thread... right? What were you expecting to find in the 'Coronavirus' thread?
Related to 'Coronavirus' the chart makes it clear that areas that accept the necessity of masks are doing better at reducing infection than areas that favor ideology over reality. So.... maybe vote for people that support reality over ideology so we can start actually solving problems instead of ignoring them..........
True, the chart starts after some states got it under control. But that is much less important than how they got it controlled. They used science and data backed infection rates to open up. If all states had done that we would be in much better shape now. That one can ignore why those states have it under control then one is parroting a party line rather than looking at science and facts. Nuff said.
The title of the thread is not “partisan bickering over coronavirus” it is “coronavirus” in the Tesla investors discussion thread. I expect to see information about the coronavirus that is relevant to Tesla the company as an investment.
30 of the 50 states are red based on the last presidential election. 7 of the top 10 states in deaths per million are blue. I expect the states hit the hardest early on to learn from it and also have elevated levels of immunity so it is not surprising that they are seeing lower cases since June 1. I view that chart as somewhat cherry picked data. I am no fan of Trump but I am tired of the partisan sniping everywhere.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
.... but there IS partisan bickering over Coronavirus and the partisan lunacy against mask mandates is one of the biggest reasons for the recent surge.... should that just be ignored?!
But it's NOT 'partisan sniping'.... it's 'sniping' at morons that choose to follow ideology over facts.... if someone with a (D) next to their identity did the same I would 'snipe' at them too. Has nothing to do with party. It just so happens that people that follow ideology over reality are 99.9999999% Trumpers.....
Maybe not quite ~99.999999% but it sure seems that way....
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
America is about lived experience.
This has already been discussed (in fact, in the first post of this graph, it was completely non-partisan and called out the shortcomings).
The rational reason for starting from June is that prior to June cases were widely under-ascertained. So it would be kind of meaningless to do a per-capita case plot from March anyway. It would make NY look too good!
At least starting in June, things were sort of reasonably under control (relatively speaking) across the country.
Obviously based on deaths per capita, the Northeast is still far worse, and may remain so (though the Dakotas will be making a strong bid, it appears). These high deaths early on is as much a matter of bad luck as it is anything else, as far as I can tell. Certainly there were large numbers of excess deaths in the NE (NYC in particularly) caused by unnecessary infections in the elderly, due to lack of PPE, knowledge, etc.
I think the graph should be done with per capita deaths starting June 1st. That still benefits the Northeast, but I'm not sure that it's fair to judge areas by what happened when the virus had spread out of control before we had the ability to find it.
Other than isolated areas of NYC and isolated areas of other urban centers, I don't think there is enough immunity to have a substantial impact on case growth and deaths. Most people have not been exposed (it's about 15% nationwide).
In the end, I guess I agree the graph is kind of dumb, even if it's done with deaths. No states are immune and I suspect many "blue" states are going to get hammered shortly as well. It's a nightmare - 200k cases per day (with at least double the number of daily infections) is not out of the question, but is also not a certainty at this point either. Depends on how people behave.
Still, the graph provides some indication of the per-capita growth in cases, which is instructive. You just can't view it as the whole picture.
We'll see. Probably will be more interesting to look at it in another 4-5 months. Fairly early days right now in this pandemic - hardly anyone has been infected, and mortality has been relatively low nationwide, so far (only 225k deaths). The question is are we going to be able to keep slowing it long enough for treatments and a vaccine & new testing methods to come online properly and save lives? So far, all the slowing that has been done has clearly saved a LOT of lives. But they've been more "provisionally saved" than "saved." Need that vaccine!
Ascertainment is nearly twice as good, and don't focus on the peak in the deaths - look at the right hand side of the death curve!!! And it's early days right now. Number of cases is quite low right now.
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nwdiver
Well-Known Member
No one is 'immune' but some places are implementing policies to slow the spread while others areas have 'given up'. Here in NM Roswell is now allowing indoors dine-in seating (last I checked). In Hobbs it's still banned. That's likely one reason Chaves county where Roswell is located has ~2x as many active cases as where Hobbs is. Masks should have been mandated indoors back in ~May when the evidence of asymptomatic spread became clear. It's illegal to walk around in public without pants... being indoors without a mask should be treated no differently.
Sure seems like it. But clearly there's a divide and what do you think the odds are that the people throwing tantrums in costco or planning to kidnap Governors because their gym is closed are voting for Trump?
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oh, I agree with that. Some places are going to be a lot worse than others, and there's not really any doubt (in my mind) that it's going to be determined by policy and education of the public in what are the risks.
Being indoors without masks is just not safe. Indoor dining without masks can't be done.
That is what worries me about the winter - it's now impossible to eat comfortably outside in most of the country. Smaller towns revolve around their morning diners, etc. It's really not just the smaller towns, either. People like to go out to eat!
Things are going to get worse, not better. The virus is everywhere. It's completely avoidable still in nearly all areas of the country (unless you have a high risk job of course), but it's not clear that people want to avoid it.
I guess we'll see what happens when hospitals actually start filling up (this is a bit of a misnomer, BTW - hospitals fill up, due to lack of staff, before they run out of beds). That tends to change behavior. Unfortunately also results in a lot of loss of life. (As we saw in March and April, the loss of life appears to be mostly due to people failing to get medical care for non-COVID reasons - hopefully that will be better now that we are better organized and able to provide telemedicine and other partitioning/sequestering of C19 patients.)
Again, it's far from clear to me that we'll approach the March/April peaks. There were a LOT of infections back then. But it was less widely dispersed. On one hand we find a lot more infections now. On the other hand a lot more infections are now in the young, which makes the IFR lower. So it is possible we'll get to the same number of infections, but have mortality remain lower. It depends on how well the shielding works. I don't have high hopes for the shielding, once the pressure grows.
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That’s all I’m trying to say. The graph has been posted so many times I guess I didn’t see the first one where the shortcomings were discussed but I felt like the constant subsequent posting of it was more trolling than anything.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
It's more the risk of SPREADING that needs to be focused on. I think that's where the disconnect is. If someone isn't wearing a mask they're not just endangering themselves but the dozens of people they pass by in a store (even if those people are masked) plus the hundreds THOSE people will encounter if you infect them.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, this is an overdispersed virus. The superspreading events have to be stopped if we want to have a hope.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Is twice really "so many times"?
It was first posted on Oct 12th by Alansubie4life on page 1072.
we discussed it for a few posts after that on the 13th and 14th but it was still part of the "first time it was brought up".
I posted again yesterday, omg a second time ever it's been posted on this thread.
And notice that is 2 weeks apart, not every week.
It seems to me you are confusing this thread with the entirety of the internet or you really do think 2 times is once too many.
I thought it was another way to look at what states were doing per capita to compare to the other map I posted one or two posts above it. I'm not sure why that stands out so much. It's just one of a bunch of sites I added to a bookmark list to look back at later.
I literally thought it was more important that it was per capita and sorted to show the states in order than it was that it had some sort of color code for partisanship. I think that part is minor since city vs rural partisanship exists in most every state.
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