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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Both mild, but it remains to be seen as to what the long-term effects are.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
With mild disease, I would bet (money, Tesla, pretty much anything) that there are no long-COVID symptoms. Typical respiratory infections can take up to 6 weeks to fully resolve, but I would be very surprised if there were any symptoms after that.
Long-COVID symptoms are a direct result, from what we know, of very high viral loads and damaged to tissues caused by those high viral loads. Vaccinated individuals should be able to mount an immune response long before viral loads get to that level. The one, important, exception to that would be individuals with any degree of immunocompromise.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Here's some evidence of longer COVID symptoms in vaccinated individuals, all with technically "mild" symptoms (these definitions can be surprising though - mild might mean "not hospitalized" - didn't read the study for all the exact definitions). Note that the BT infection rate was only 0.4% in this population, which is great - but note that is NOT at all the same as efficacy, since it is the product of efficacy and the exposure rate, and this is pre-Delta :
Yeah, I don't want to be part of that group, though my options are limited since I'm now required to be at work three days a week (fortunately in a 97+% vaccinated environment where masking in common areas is required). And I'm back to rock climbing at the gym once a week (masked with a vented N95 which are the best, since they don't lift, apparently).
Here's the data on Pfizer protection:
I'm not necessarily THAT worried about long COVID, but it just seems to me that masking can substantially reduce my risk so I'm not going to mess around. I'd feel pretty dumb if I got COVID and hadn't been masking. If I get it with masking, it is what it is. I just do whatever I can and try to live my life relatively normally now. Standard risk reduction stuff. Masking is easy and doesn't limit me in any way.
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Thanks, that was the reference I saw earlier regarding ~20% long COVID in vaxxed people. Still doesn't tell us how severe those symptoms are, but we already know that COVID isn't just the flu or cold, so why mess around?
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Interesting data and commentary ... the Midwest appears to be the region with the highest percentage of low and moderate cases.
www.cnn.com
"On the CDC's map, low counties are represented in blue, moderate counties are in yellow, substantial counties are in orange and high counties are in red. Counties vary in size so it's also a good idea to check a city, state or municipal health department website. As of Wednesday, about 50% of counties have high transmission and 17% have substantial transmission, which covers wide swaths of the South and West, according to CDC data. About 27% of US counties are considered to have moderate transmission and only about 9% have low transmission.
Health officials say this new guidance, an update from May, reflects the latest science on the more transmissible Delta variant and evidence that suggests vaccinated people can still spread the virus. The vast majority of spread still appears to come from unvaccinated people, who are at much higher risk of severe illness that can send people to the hospital or kill them. The guidance on mask-wearing is meant to remind people who are fully vaccinated that they might be able to infect others, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday."
"Several medical experts took issue with parts of the CDC's decision to update the mask guidance and its specific metrics.
For one, the CDC's system solely is based on new cases and positivity rate -- but not vaccinations, hospitalizations, deaths, or any of the other relevant metrics experts have come to know since the pandemic began. "If you were to ask me how I define a community that has high transmission, I say, 'I don't look at any one number,'" said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. "I don't look at positivity rate, the per-100,000 rate, I don't look at hospitalizations or deaths. I look at it all in aggregate to really get a sense of what's happening on a really high level."
Hotez also took issue with the CDC using 100 cases per 100,000 people as a "high" level of transmission, which he said was a low bar. As cases continue to rise in the coming few weeks, the CDC's map is likely to become less useful, he said. "Everything is going to be red pretty soon, and that's not good either because it doesn't give you a lot of credit for vaccinations," he said. Wen noted that the CDC's metrics don't take into account an area's vaccination rate.
"I wish that the CDC had tied indoor mask-wearing to vaccination rates in a community. That's something people can work towards, and it's something that's less arbitrary," she said. "It's also more motivating as an incentive," she added.
What the CDC's 'substantial' and 'high' levels of Covid-19 transmission actually mean | CNN
Health guidance issued Tuesday recommends that fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors if they're in areas with "substantial" or "high" transmission of Covid-19. But what do "substantial" and "high" actually mean?
www.cnn.com
"On the CDC's map, low counties are represented in blue, moderate counties are in yellow, substantial counties are in orange and high counties are in red. Counties vary in size so it's also a good idea to check a city, state or municipal health department website. As of Wednesday, about 50% of counties have high transmission and 17% have substantial transmission, which covers wide swaths of the South and West, according to CDC data. About 27% of US counties are considered to have moderate transmission and only about 9% have low transmission.
Health officials say this new guidance, an update from May, reflects the latest science on the more transmissible Delta variant and evidence that suggests vaccinated people can still spread the virus. The vast majority of spread still appears to come from unvaccinated people, who are at much higher risk of severe illness that can send people to the hospital or kill them. The guidance on mask-wearing is meant to remind people who are fully vaccinated that they might be able to infect others, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday."
"Several medical experts took issue with parts of the CDC's decision to update the mask guidance and its specific metrics.
For one, the CDC's system solely is based on new cases and positivity rate -- but not vaccinations, hospitalizations, deaths, or any of the other relevant metrics experts have come to know since the pandemic began. "If you were to ask me how I define a community that has high transmission, I say, 'I don't look at any one number,'" said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine. "I don't look at positivity rate, the per-100,000 rate, I don't look at hospitalizations or deaths. I look at it all in aggregate to really get a sense of what's happening on a really high level."
Hotez also took issue with the CDC using 100 cases per 100,000 people as a "high" level of transmission, which he said was a low bar. As cases continue to rise in the coming few weeks, the CDC's map is likely to become less useful, he said. "Everything is going to be red pretty soon, and that's not good either because it doesn't give you a lot of credit for vaccinations," he said. Wen noted that the CDC's metrics don't take into account an area's vaccination rate.
"I wish that the CDC had tied indoor mask-wearing to vaccination rates in a community. That's something people can work towards, and it's something that's less arbitrary," she said. "It's also more motivating as an incentive," she added.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yep, they need to create motivation for vaccination. Metrics like this are very important and it is mysterious why they are not included.
Also their recommendations and comments today about viral load in vaccinated individuals is questionable. It’s not clear at all that vaccinated individuals with delta have viral loads similar to unvaccinated individuals with prior variants. There’s no data. Definitely need good data from vaccines used in this country before they run with that.
I think this is all because they aren’t willing to say everyone has to mask up because the freeloaders have blown the privileges for everyone. Instead, they’re trying to establish poorly grounded rationale , which are somehow more palatable, for why vaccinated people should do so (there are plenty of actual good reasons to do so, of course). And it’s reducing the incentive to have people get vaccinated, which is dangerous.
Just tell people the unvaccinated people blew it for everyone and as a practical matter of “enforcement” (even though it will not be enforced since there is no mandate) everyone should mask up, and there are fringe benefits for vaccinated individuals anyway (like reduced risk of infection). Seems like a simple message. Also true.
Update - one of those other relatives (vaxxed) got it from the half-vaxxed person, then also managed to give it to another vaxxed person. Yeah, so one initial infection led to at least 3 others. So yeah - the delta variant is no joke and you should quarantine if you get COVID.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Really makes one wonder about the efficacy numbers published so far…
I guess this tends to be the way anecdotal data is…but still….
I guess the question is how many contacts did they have, and the status of those contacts.
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I think a lot of this may just be bad luck. Someone just got a large viral load exposure, then gave a large exposure to someone else before the antibodies got to work overwhelming the invaders. Timing and viral load exposure could explain some of these cases. I have to get a COVID test tomorrow to get on the flight back to the US on Sunday. Everyone here wears masks indoors but few do outside. Hopefully I've had good luck or I may be quarantining here for a couple weeks which would not be great. I wouldn't mind spending a couple more weeks here in Germany but not being able to go anywhere the whole time sucks.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yep. That’s why we have organizations like PHE do actual studies. Very hard to tell from anecdotes - you don’t hear about all the cases that didn’t end up being cases.
Due to the nature of these reports, the virus appears to have nearly 100% success rate infecting vaccinated individuals.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
This mysterious highly conflicting information still puzzles me:
Total county population is 3.35 million, 12 & up is about 2.8 million.
We have something like 2.05 million fully vaccinated. (61%)
I think The NY Times is taking the CDC vaccination data (44% for some reason?) to establish vulnerability. We have a lower vaccination rate than Imperial County (lol)! 17% seems like a big difference.
Not sure what the deal is. And I wonder how many other counties are so affected. Seems like it would massively affect predictions.
T
Total county population is 3.35 million, 12 & up is about 2.8 million.
We have something like 2.05 million fully vaccinated. (61%)
I think The NY Times is taking the CDC vaccination data (44% for some reason?) to establish vulnerability. We have a lower vaccination rate than Imperial County (lol)! 17% seems like a big difference.
Not sure what the deal is. And I wonder how many other counties are so affected. Seems like it would massively affect predictions.
T
Behind the Masks, a Mystery: How Often Do the Vaccinated Spread the Virus?
The C.D.C.’s new masking advice was based in part on data showing that the virus can thrive in the airways of vaccinated people. The findings are expected on Friday.
Insiders say the data is to be published imminently, according to tweet by NYT reporter.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Just waiting over here, with my mask on. I got more 3M 1870+ Aura when they were down to $2 a piece, so I'm ready for anything!
The R0 of chickenpox is often said to be 10-12.
Read the leaked CDC internal presentation here:
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From a leading expert on Long Covid:
The road to addressing Long Covid
Reporting, recognizing, and researching the chronic effects of COVID-19 will help those affected
I’ve seen it said that children with mild Covid symptoms can also develop MIS-C.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
From a leading expert on Long Covid:
The road to addressing Long Covid
Reporting, recognizing, and researching the chronic effects of COVID-19 will help those affectedscience.sciencemag.org
I’ve seen it said that children with mild Covid symptoms can also develop MIS-C.
MIS-C is a very rare complication of COVID in the under 21 population.
Incidence of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children Among US Persons Infected With SARS-CoV-2
This cohort study examines the incidence of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children among persons in the US with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
jamanetwork.com
316 incidences per 1mil infections in the 21 and under population. That puts it in the rare category, rarer than other systemic side-effects of infective diseases, like PANDAS, etc.
I'm not saying it's not bad, but only one of my pediatric hospitalists colleagues saw a case, which resolved with supportive care (which is the norm for MIS-C).
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