Coronavirus

[Jeff N]

Well…. we have reached an average of over 50,000 U.S. daily new cases in only 2 weeks rather than the 3-4 weeks that I was speculating about back on July 14.

Will we reach 100,000 new cases per day in the next 2 weeks? Or 3-4 weeks? It seems likely now.

Well…. we have reached an average of over 100,000 U.S. daily new cases in only a week and two days rather than the 2-4 weeks I was speculating about back on July 27.

Will we reach 200,000 new cases per day in the next 2 weeks? Or 3-4 weeks? It seems possible now.

Source: NYT

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Will we reach 200,000 new cases per day in the next 2 weeks? Or 3-4 weeks? It seems possible now.

Definitely possible in 2-3 weeks! All depends on how much immunity is actually out there, and people’s behavior. It’s all very muddled. I would still pick the under, but I’ve been underestimating this wave at every instant so far.

 

[uujjj2]

Ron DeSantis's "executive order" against mask rules in schools has some big loopholes. All it actually requires is to give parents the option to opt their kid out. Sure, here's the 50-page form the parents need to fill out in triplicate. Also, kids who've been opted out of masks will need to wear this hideously ugly vest all day instead. If the kid voluntarily decides to ditch the ugly vest and wear a mask like all the other kids, hey, who's the school to stop them from making such a "personal choice".

 

[cwerdna]

I got recommended

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423245814063902720

by Twitter. It points to I went to a party with 14 other vaccinated people; 11 of us got COVID | COMMENTARY.

 

[eevee-fan]

Newsweek: Las Vegas, Among First Cities Hit by COVID Delta Variant, Sees Cases Fall.

Las Vegas, Among First Cities Hit by COVID Delta Variant, Sees Cases Fall

Nevada's Clark County has recorded a decline in its 7-day and 14-day average of new COVID cases.

www.newsweek.com

What was it the Las Vegas mayor said? LOL

 

[madodel]

Newsweek: Las Vegas, Among First Cities Hit by COVID Delta Variant, Sees Cases Fall.

Las Vegas, Among First Cities Hit by COVID Delta Variant, Sees Cases Fall

Nevada's Clark County has recorded a decline in its 7-day and 14-day average of new COVID cases.

www.newsweek.com

What was it the Las Vegas mayor said? LOL

Anyone think the US will ever achieve 90% vaccination like the Brits? I don't think the 65+ crowd has reached 90% yet in the US.

"However the success of the U.K.'s vaccine rollout—which has seen more than 90 percent of the adult population receive at least one dose—has seen deaths and hospitalizations significantly fall, even as it still records tens of thousands of new cases daily."

 

[eevee-fan]

Anyone think the US will ever achieve 90% vaccination like the Brits? I don't think the 65+ crowd has reached 90% yet in the US.

"However the success of the U.K.'s vaccine rollout—which has seen more than 90 percent of the adult population receive at least one dose—has seen deaths and hospitalizations significantly fall, even as it still records tens of thousands of new cases daily."

We will get there one way or another.
Probably yes through attrition.
The only question is how much of a blue wave we will see in 2022 and beyond. LOL.

 

[nwdiver]

 

[cwerdna]

Sigh...

Poll: Massive Delta surge hasn't convinced unvaccinated Americans that virus is riskier than vaccines

As the hypercontagious Delta variant rips through undervaccinated parts of the U.S. and shatters hospitalization records in hot spots such as Florida and Louisiana, more unvaccinated Americans continue to say that the COVID-19 vaccines pose a greater risk to their health than the virus.

news.yahoo.com

A survey of 1,552 U.S. adults, conducted from July 30 to Aug. 2, found that a full 40 percent of those who remain unvaccinated now believe that the COVID-19 vaccines, which rank among the safest ever produced, represent a bigger threat to their personal well-being than COVID-19 itself — even though more than 52,000 Americans are currently hospitalized because of the virus, nearly all of them unvaccinated, and more than 615,000 have already died from it.

In mid-July, before Delta took off, this number was smaller (37 percent) — meaning that the variant’s subsequent spread has done nothing to persuade most holdouts that the near-zero risks of vaccination are lower than the abundantly documented risks of infection.

Meanwhile, another 31 percent of unvaccinated adults say they still aren’t sure whether the virus or the vaccines pose a greater risk to their health. Just 29 percent say the virus is more dangerous.

 

[TespaceX]

Apparently, the infamous Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota happens this weekend.
Will be interesting to see the outcome of that in the following days and weeks.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like the surge in LA County is leveling off - only around 30% case growth this past week. Looks like the mask mandate is likely having an effect, but of course hard to establish causation. Would make sense though!

Hopefully we’ll see more leveling off this week.

Overall numbers in California and Texas are troubling. I hope we can see a different story play out here and TX than in Florida.

Just need to be vaccinating everyone we can find, and mandating it everywhere possible, ASAP. We still have time. The first dose helps. Love that Yelp is allowing filtering by vaccination status of employees and patrons. Though I would still eat outside, lol.

Yelp helps businesses communicate vaccination requirements

To help consumers understand how a business is currently operating as pandemic guidelines continue to evolve, today, Yelp is announcing two new, free attributes – “Proof of vaccination required” and “All staff fully vaccinated.”

blog.yelp.com

 

[scottf200]

Apparently, the infamous Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota happens this weekend.
Will be interesting to see the outcome of that in the following days and weeks.

Re: Weekend --- longer than a weekend --- 2021 Fri, August 6 to Sun, August 15

Map of places that people who attended Sturgis motorcycle rally traveled to/from after the event last year.

Watch Sturgis Spread in Real Time posted Aug 24, 2020

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Re: Weekend --- longer than a weekend --- 2021 Fri, August 6 to Sun, August 15

Perfect! Enough time for three generations of transmission during the event.

I predict none of the subsequent stories will provide info initially on:

1) % vaccinated
2) Number of people exposed.
3) Estimates of number of people with natural immunity who are not vaccinated.

I’m going to use 50% for vaccinated and 700k for the denominator, and 15% with natural immunity, for all future calculations of efficacy, barring any real info being provided by the media.

As a continual reminder, the original efficacy numbers were established with everyone wearing masks, measured symptomatic efficacy, and there is every reason to expect lower efficacy in other more challenging circumstances. Dose matters. Wear an N95 indoors, maintain distance outside.

 

[Wolfhausen]

Re: Weekend --- longer than a weekend --- 2021 Fri, August 6 to Sun, August 15

Map of places that people who attended Sturgis motorcycle rally traveled to/from after the event last year.

Watch Sturgis Spread in Real Time posted Aug 24, 2020

I believe this because they included a cool graphic.

 

[scottf200]

I believe this because they included a cool graphic.

It is unclear what you are referring to? What is "this"?

 

[FlatSix911]

This site provides an excellent overview of the data by state and country along with a short daily video overview.

• New cases and cumulative cases
• US New deaths and cumulative deaths
• US Daily new cases, testing, and positivity ratio by US state
• New cases by country

COVID-19 Data in Motion - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

null

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Iceland is an interesting case. About 72% fully vaccinated with about 66% infections in the vaccinated. Suggests the population actually infected is 90% vaccinated, if efficacy is 80%. Or, the efficacy is lower. I assume they use Pfizer but have not checked any details here.

They are least are not experiencing exponential growth. I’d be interested in what the contact tracing says about who the main spreaders are. Going to take a lot of vaccination to stop delta - that seems certain. Probably 85% plus of the population including children - time to get to it here in the US; we have a lot of work to do.

H/t Eric Topol and others on Twitter.

Meanwhile in Houston, TX wastewater concentrations are higher than they have ever been.

COVID-19 in Houston wastewater currently at levels 'never seen before'

The numbers are an indication that the virus is rapidly spreading and the increase in COVID-19 cases will likely continue.

t.co

Finally, pediatric admissions to the hospital are at an all-time high for the pandemic in the US (this should be a surprise to literally no one - we’re going to see a lot of children die this round, more than the total so far, in the under-12 population, would be my guess - so several hundred). Keep your children safe, people.

Finally, deaths are rising (should surprise no one). We will not see nearly the decoupling of cases/deaths that other countries have seen, though CFR will drop; I’m still guessing 0.5-1%. I think one thing that is happening is our case ascertainment is probably relatively low compared to the last wave. That drives CFR up a bit, from the much lower levels expected with vaccinations of 80%+ in the elderly. And of course a bunch of infections in the unvaccinated don’t help, unlike others countries with good vaccine distribution. Not liking my chances on my bet with my dad that deaths will stay below 700k (CDC count) this year.

 

[madodel]

A little about Lambda.
SARS-CoV-2 Lambda variant exhibits higher infectivity and immune resistance

 

[TespaceX]

A little about Lambda.
SARS-CoV-2 Lambda variant exhibits higher infectivity and immune resistance

Many Americans may get a refresher on the Greek Alphabet that they forgot from their college days.

 

[wdolson]

Many Americans may get a refresher on the Greek Alphabet that they forgot from their college days.

I didn't have to study Greek in school. I did have to know omega, lambda and a couple other letters though.

Lambda does sound bad. It sounds like the South African variant (beta?) crossbred with Delta. It might be the variant that overcomes the vaccines and put us back, if not to square one, to a much earlier stage of the pandemic. The highly vaccinated areas should still get some protection, but the unvaccinated are about as well protected as a WW I soldier going over the top.

Looks like Houston will be in the news soon:
COVID-19 Virus In Houston Wastewater At Levels 'Never Seen Before': What This Means

The COVID map keeps looking more and more like a localized issue. One thing that I have a question about is Nebraska. It looks like someone is cooking the books there. Most of the state's counties have 0 cases when every state around them is heating up.

In Western Washington the two counties showing the most COVID heat are the two most conservative counties west of the Cascades in this state: Cowlitz and Lewis counties. There is also a cluster of outbreak in some counties along the Oragon/Washington border near Idaho. Another conservative part of both states.

Kinsa who make a web connected thermometer that uploads your temperature data to the web has been tracking the data vs first flu and now COVID for about 2 years now. This is their current prediction map:
COVID-19 Map | Kinsa HealthWeather™

It looks like the wave is beginning to burn out in Missouri, but the rest of the South and Appalachia are rising fast.