Coronavirus

[NikolaACDC]

Link to the study with numbers we can see ?

It was a case study from the summer of 2020

Azithromycin, Cefixime, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Zinc to Treat Mild Covid-19: A Case Report | Indian Journal of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology

View of Azithromycin, Cefixime, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Zinc to Treat Mild Covid-19: A Case Report

N=1

Don't know why that's even worth writing a paper about, many people recovered without any treatment.

 

[wdolson]

The climate has nothing to do with it. Everyone is indoors in summer because it's way too hot.. We had tons of cases in summer but deaths were much lower than other states. Florida is one of the highest populated states and yet, we are only #18 in deaths per million residents while we had very high infection numbers. Deaths are lower because of better herd immunity. Do you have any other explanation why Florida has lower death per million than virtually all the states that locked down? We did NOT have less cases per million residents, just less deaths.. I'd like to hear the theories why less COVID patients die in Florida.
The real reason is a combination of vaccinations and natural immunity due to previously contracting it.

For some states, including Florida, there is a discrepancy between unexpected deaths (number of deaths more than the norm) and reported COVID deaths. The actual COVID death rate in every state is probably more than reported, but it's probably higher in Florida than some other states that tried to report accurate numbers.

I looked at the official reported deaths here
Per capita covid-19 cases and deaths

The only states with worse death tolls per capita than Florida are states that were lax in their masking and distancing mandates or were hit hard very early in the pandemic before health care figured out how to treat cases.

Among those worse than Florida:
New Mexico - had a bad outbreak early on Indian reservations combined with poor health care available on the reservations it became a catastrophe
New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania. Massachusetts, and Rhode Island - All hit hard in April 2020 with the first big wave.

The per capita deaths in California are almost 100 / 100K better than Florida. Most of the states with low death tolls are ones that did lock down pretty thoroughly and had a chance to prepare for the storm.

If it's true Florida cooked the books and actually has more deaths per 100K than reported (which statistically is probable), then it's probably further down the list than the official numbers.

COVID appears to follow the indoor season in each part of the country. It's hitting northern states right now because this is indoor season there now because it's cold. The cold is extending further south than normal right now, but generally this is the pleasant season in the southern most states. As soon as it starts getting hot in the south and people move back indoors with the AC on, COVID will follow them.

 

[FloridaSun]

For some states, including Florida, there is a discrepancy between unexpected deaths (number of deaths more than the norm) and reported COVID deaths. The actual COVID death rate in every state is probably more than reported, but it's probably higher in Florida than some other states that tried to report accurate numbers.

I looked at the official reported deaths here
Per capita covid-19 cases and deaths

The only states with worse death tolls per capita than Florida are states that were lax in their masking and distancing mandates or were hit hard very early in the pandemic before health care figured out how to treat cases.

Among those worse than Florida:
New Mexico - had a bad outbreak early on Indian reservations combined with poor health care available on the reservations it became a catastrophe
New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania. Massachusetts, and Rhode Island - All hit hard in April 2020 with the first big wave.

The per capita deaths in California are almost 100 / 100K better than Florida. Most of the states with low death tolls are ones that did lock down pretty thoroughly and had a chance to prepare for the storm.

If it's true Florida cooked the books and actually has more deaths per 100K than reported (which statistically is probable), then it's probably further down the list than the official numbers.

COVID appears to follow the indoor season in each part of the country. It's hitting northern states right now because this is indoor season there now because it's cold. The cold is extending further south than normal right now, but generally this is the pleasant season in the southern most states. As soon as it starts getting hot in the south and people move back indoors with the AC on, COVID will follow them.

Any proof for the accusation that Florida cooked the books? All states report on the same criteria.. On worldometers, Florida is #18. They used to be in the top 10 but as more people become immune via infection or vaccination, the death numbers per case and per million are very low.

 

[JRP3]

the death numbers per case and per million are very low.

That is simply a lie. 18th WORST death per million in the nation, out of 50 states in case you didn't know. I'll let you struggle with the math.

Any proof for the accusation that Florida cooked the books?

Yes, he provided it:

For some states, including Florida, there is a discrepancy between unexpected deaths (number of deaths more than the norm) and reported COVID deaths.

That means there were more deaths than usual but for some reason they weren't reported as covid related. So either something else is killing people at a higher rate than normal or covid related deaths aren't being accurately reported. Pretty obvious what is happening.

 

[golfcart]

That is simply a lie. 18th WORST death per million in the nation, out of 50 states in case you didn't know. I'll let you struggle with the math.


Yes, he provided it:

That means there were more deaths than usual but for some reason they weren't reported as covid related. So either something else is killing people at a higher rate than normal or covid related deaths aren't being accurately reported. Pretty obvious what is happening.

By that definition every state cooked the books. This is older but it covers the Rebekah Jones period which is where all this nonsense came from. According to the IHME model the average excess deaths for the United States was about 58% higher than reported. For Florida it was 41% higher ranking it 16th lowest. Nothing stands out about Florida in terms of underreporting as every state has a hard time quantifying COVID deaths.

IHME scientist

And in terms of age adjusted death rate (which is the number that matters given the vast stratification of risk by age) Florida is 31st out of 51 states and DC. So pretty damn close to 18th best. That struggle with the math comment was unnecessary… he had it closer than you did.

Age adjusted by state

The reality is that Florida is not an outlier they are pretty average. They have had more lax restrictions than most and their Governor is the likely 2024 Republican presidential candidate so they get way more scrutiny from the media then they deserve but Florida is doing fine. My parents winter there in their RV and we’re able to get vaccines, boosters, tests, and masks with no issue.

 

[shinytop]

I don't trust the figures reported by my state, Florida. But then again there are too many states with governments more interested in the next elections than in reporting honest figures or, for that matter, the lives of their citizens. While discussing that I don't look at national figures from countries with totalitarian countries with any confidence, either.

 

[JRP3]

By that definition every state cooked the books. This is older but it covers the Rebekah Jones period which is where all this nonsense came from. According to the IHME model the average excess deaths for the United States was about 58% higher than reported. For Florida it was 41% higher ranking it 16th lowest. Nothing stands out about Florida in terms of underreporting as every state has a hard time quantifying COVID deaths.

IHME scientist

8 months old data, before the huge spike in Florida, so irrelevant.

And in terms of age adjusted death rate (which is the number that matters given the vast stratification of risk by age) Florida is 31st out of 51 states and DC. So pretty damn close to 18th best. That struggle with the math comment was unnecessary… he had it closer than you did.

Except he didn't specify adjusted death rate, did he, so no, he in fact did not have it closer than I did, he was flat out wrong. When you need to change the parameters of an equation to be "right" that's just misdirection. And again, Florida still had the advantage of covid hitting later which improves death rates. The fact that Florida had the 6th worse cases per capita in the nation shows that they did not handle the pandemic well at all. Florida did not do anything magical to reduce their death rate, (which ever parameters you wish to use), a number of factors helped to some degree.

 

[EVNow]

Omicron starting to hit India. I hope its gone by summer, so we can visit ...

Any guesses how high it might go ?

 

[Jeff N]

According to the NYT, National USA Covid hospitalization statistics are now at their highest since the beginning of the pandemic and daily average deaths have reached the same level as during the first wave and the Delta wave.

 

[Slipstream]

Really interesting talk on the effect of light and the immune system, with relevancy to COVID-19:

 

[FlatSix911]

This top chart was nicely sized for a clearer view of the lines. Several states haven't peaked.
Bottom chart gives you a colored visual ... west vs east currently.

Here is the link for other TMC members who are interested in a deep dive into the data.

Have we flattened the curve in the US? - Johns Hopkins

Daily Confirmed Case Trends (7-Day Moving Average) in the US

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[bhzmark]

Link to the study with numbers we can see ?

The point is that doctors were writing (rather than dismissing out of hand without any evidence or science or data as some do here) that there may be early treatments that are worth exploring. So they write an article about a case study and the related theory. The case study suggests that this treatment was standard at that hospital and explains why people in India would be given that early treatment.

I get that some feel emotional about the possibility of, and are averse to sharing actual studies on early treatments. I wonder what childhood trauma caused such an aversion. It would be better if they directed their energies to simply sharing facts, data and links.

the reality on the ground is the [Indian] doctors will prescribe whatever they can

Link to study with numbers we can see?

I've spent significant time in India, including interactions with the healthcare system and do not have the experience that doctors prescribe stuff just to prescribe. The medical systems in India include many intelligent people -- not all the good Indian doctors came to the US to practice medicine.

may be potentially beneficial in this observational trial on mild cases, however, even if it is, unfortunately it will not address the primary issue at hand, which is hospitalizations and death.

Yes it could, if early treatment for those at high risk reduces the later need for hospitalization and reduces chance of death.

For instance:

Effect of early treatment with fluvoxamine on risk of emergency care and hospitalisation among patients with COVID-19: the TOGETHER randomised, platform clinical trial

Treatment with fluvoxamine (100 mg twice daily for 10 days) among high-risk outpatients with early diagnosed COVID-19 reduced the need for hospitalisation defined as retention in a COVID-19 emergency setting or transfer to a tertiary hospital.

www.thelancet.com

Don't know why that's even worth writing a paper about, many people recovered without any treatment.

Yes most people who get covid recover without any treatment.

It doesn't remotely follow that we should freeze the current science and not publish and read case studies, observational studies and RCTs exploring novel ideas.

 

[Norbert]

The absolutely highest rate so far was close to 3,600 per day, at the peak, so if we reach 2,000 per day, I wouldn't call that "mild" anymore, even if it takes a lot of cases to get there.

In the US, the death rate crossed 2,000 / day yesterday, going upwards, for the 7-day average as counted by worldometers.info
(Fortunately, the new cases numbers appear to be going down now.)

(EDIT: Just noticed Jeff already posted a graph showing that.)

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[madodel]

Cruises sail on in Omicron wave as CDC rules go voluntary, agents 'clarify messaging'

Can someone explain the rationale for the CDC to make COVID guidelines voluntary on cruise ships now?

 

[Double-O]

Because people are gonna do whatever they feel like regardless. If the cruise ships are open for business, people will cruise and take whatever small or big risk n deal with it. Vaccine and mask mandates don't stop people since there are plenty of establishments who don't enforce it. CDC probably is getting tired of dealing with this mess.

 

[jerry33]

Cruises sail on in Omicron wave as CDC rules go voluntary, agents 'clarify messaging'

Can someone explain the rationale for the CDC to make COVID guidelines voluntary on cruise ships now?

Other than political pressure, I'd guess that many cruise ships are based in other countries so they aren't able to really enforce any ruling to any great extent.

 

[Jeff N]

Cruises sail on in Omicron wave as CDC rules go voluntary, agents 'clarify messaging'

Can someone explain the rationale for the CDC to make COVID guidelines voluntary on cruise ships now?

I guess CDC must finally be running out of bad Covid policy moves and advisory guidelines and this is all they could come up with?

 

[Double-O]

I wonder what all the pro vaxxers have to say about this recently posted research by the CDC. What was once considered a conspiracy is now being acknowledged by CDC. Go figure.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yes it could, if early treatment for those at high risk reduces the later need for hospitalization and reduces chance of death.

For instance:

Sure. But fluvoxamine is extremely well known as an effective treatment. It went through RCTs and showed efficacy. As I have said already many times, early treatment with drugs proven to provide benefit in RCTs is extremely important. This is very well known. It’s particularly important to use as a prophylactic in the vulnerable, who may not have a good response to the vaccine and need all the help they can get (but it is important for everyone showing significant symptoms, really).

However, I think it’s a little unrealistic to think most people show mild symptoms and then get worse slowly over the course of many days. For many people, the symptoms come on quite quickly and rapidly escalate. People showing strong symptoms need to get the treatments proven by RCTs ASAP and not waste their time with ineffective therapies (they can always supplement with these if allowed, but using as a substitute will very likely be harmful).

CDC says 6 feet under 15 minutes is ok (note this individual was unvaccinated):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1484176139681738753

 

[golfcart]

8 months old data, before the huge spike in Florida, so irrelevant.

Except he didn't specify adjusted death rate, did he, so no, he in fact did not have it closer than I did, he was flat out wrong. When you need to change the parameters of an equation to be "right" that's just misdirection. And again, Florida still had the advantage of covid hitting later which improves death rates. The fact that Florida had the 6th worse cases per capita in the nation shows that they did not handle the pandemic well at all. Florida did not do anything magical to reduce their death rate, (which ever parameters you wish to use), a number of factors helped to some degree.

It’s absolutely relevant because it is in response to the claim that Florida “cooked the books” which stems from the Rebekah Jones situation. Of course nothing concrete ever came of that accusation and the article I linked addresses the idea of Florida undercounting specifically. They actually found that California probably undercounted quite a bit more than Florida (though just about every state did undercount to some degree).

The important takeaway from my post is that Florida is in no way an outlier for high death rate when adjusting for age which is the only way to look at a disease where death rates vary so much by age. If you need irrelevant data to be “right” then you’re not actually right. That is my point. I don’t really care about your pissing match with FloridaSun I just took a jab because I thought u were being a jerk to him.

Florida is a funny state for everyone to obsess about with COVID. Relatively high vax rate, lots of old folks, very few restrictions, lots of tourists, and their indoor season is the summer not the winter. They really don’t have a lot of comps out there… is almost like it’s political. Lots of people moving there though, can’t be too bad.