scottf200
Well-Known Member
Related I think ... this guy does some great analysis with data and several graphs in this thread.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Very very roughly, 11.6% of 40k cases is 4640, while 8.3% of 60k one week ago is 5000. So it seems like BA.2 case numbers are perhaps dropping? They certainly aren't growing fast, even if the proportion of total cases is growing by 40% each week.
Doesn’t seem very explosive, but perhaps it hasn’t entered vulnerable populations yet? Definitely curious to see how it will unfold. Another small rise at this point in a month or two doesn’t seem too unlikely, depending on how vulnerable previously shielded populations prove to be. And of course there will be waning immunity, so perhaps in a couple months it will surge to some extent. I think it depends on how persistently immune the vaccinated people are who were exposed to Omicron but didn't get it (that's a lot of people and the most likely source of vulnerability in future (neglecting new variants)!).
I'm not that surprised in highly vaccinated places, since it's not 100% infection blocking and there are still a lot of unvaccinated people in absolute terms even in countries with high vaccination rates.
Kind of a special case - countries that have done really well have to pay the price (in case counts only if they've vaccinated and boosted well) at some point, it seems, unless they come up with a magical infection-blocking vaccine. Makes China interesting- case counts will be staggering if they ever let it rip. The case counts may be so staggeringly large in places that have had good performance that perhaps those will be the most likely sources of new variants.
But that was not really the situation in Europe, so I don't see the above as an explanation of the persistently high numbers in Europe.
Anyway I guess my conclusion for now is that case ascertainment has been more than twice as good in these countries as in the US. I’m not sure how else to explain it. Either that or we’re in for a lot more cases in the US (while these other countries are not).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
US is not even in top 10. Well, its #11.
And S Korea is highest
And S Korea is highest
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
264k cases a day and ramping straight up. That's half a percent of the population per day, equivalent to 1.7m cases/day in the US. The Netherlands, Iceland, Hong Kong and a few others are also or were recently above 0.5%/day and some places like Australia got close. New Zealand and Hong Kong saw over 90% of their total deaths come in the last month.
Deaths are also ramping, but cumulative deaths in these places with recent outbreaks are far below US on a per capita basis. Some more than 90% lower, New Zealand is 99% lower than us.
>70% of S Korea's deaths came in the last two waves. The Nov/Dec wave (presumably Delta) had a 3% CFR! This wave is ramping too fast to be sure, but CFR looks to be in the 0.1-0.2% range. Massive difference IMHO is due to Omicron being milder plus a booster program that really got going in December and is still effective in helping keep infections mild.
Taiwan is still holding out. Only 60 cases a day, a death every week or two. Their "bad" outbreak was last summer, with 90% of their 853 cumulative deaths coming in a two month span.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
In HK apparently they have a lot of old folks who are not vaccinated. They are afraid of vaccines.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yep up about 42% from January 21st or so: Prior posted stats, one of many captures in this thread
Most pronounced in the 5-11 age group (up 55%). Cases are up 33% in that time period in that age group; CFR has increased in this lowest risk group of all age groups (1 in 12000).
0-4 doing the best in terms of increase in deaths during Omicron at 38% increase in deaths and cases (but they have the highest CFR of all children by far; 1 in 4200 cases dies vs. 1 in 7200 overall in children).
Children need to be vaccinated; pretty evident - these are awful, awful statistics - insane that an astronomical 1 in ~30k infections results in death, not to mention the hospitalization rates. Hopefully the 0-4 vaccine third dose results are available soon.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Guess it is nearly time for another wave in the US? These secondary waves in Europe are even harder to understand in the context of how much infection they have had already (counted) relative to the US. Unless no one got tested in the US when we were at 1 million per day.
BA.2? I suppose that could be a contributor overall but there is going to be some cross-immunity, and prior infection counts are so high in Europe.
Maybe it is waning, and we are just a month behind or so? All states still on a downward trajectory. Could change in a couple weeks, unless we actually have had a lot more infections per capita than Europe.
All very mysterious. Would make sense to get prepared but does not seem to be the plan.
BA.2? I suppose that could be a contributor overall but there is going to be some cross-immunity, and prior infection counts are so high in Europe.
Maybe it is waning, and we are just a month behind or so? All states still on a downward trajectory. Could change in a couple weeks, unless we actually have had a lot more infections per capita than Europe.
All very mysterious. Would make sense to get prepared but does not seem to be the plan.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
In India it keeps going down even with BA.2. Infact the lowest since May '20. India should have seen a wave since all restrictions are off and there were state elections.Guess it is nearly time for another wave in the US? These secondary waves in Europe are even harder to understand in the context of how much infection they have had already (counted) relative to the US. Unless no one got tested in the US when we were at 1 million per day.
BA.2? I suppose that could be a contributor overall but there is going to be some cross-immunity, and prior infection counts are so high in Europe.
Maybe it is waning, and we are just a month behind or so? All states still on a downward trajectory. Could change in a couple weeks, unless we actually have had a lot more infections per capita than Europe.
All very mysterious. Would make sense to get prepared but does not seem to be the plan.
But UK, Netherlands and some others have the post-Omicron wave that is starting. May be just a result of people thinking Omicron is over and socially mixing more ....
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Cases are still dropping in many of the states with few restrictions, even the colder weather ones. I'd expect to see upticks in those places first, though areas with higher population density and more international travel might be better indicators. NY, NJ, FL, CA, all trending down or flattening at this point. TX might be seeing a reversal though.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Looks like it may be nearly time for China to enter the chat!
This is where we get to see whether they decide to suck it up, or take restrictions to the next level (this would be the welding doors shut level, I think). I guess if I were them, I’d take restrictions to the next level to see how efficacy against death looks for their vaccines with Omicron, just for a few weeks. Meanwhile pushing hard for boosters for all (they are way behind on that!), starting with the over-50 crowd. If they can really get their act together they can let off the brakes in a couple months.
If this starts ripping it is going to be staggering. Maybe more than 5 million cases per day is on the table.
This is where we get to see whether they decide to suck it up, or take restrictions to the next level (this would be the welding doors shut level, I think). I guess if I were them, I’d take restrictions to the next level to see how efficacy against death looks for their vaccines with Omicron, just for a few weeks. Meanwhile pushing hard for boosters for all (they are way behind on that!), starting with the over-50 crowd. If they can really get their act together they can let off the brakes in a couple months.
If this starts ripping it is going to be staggering. Maybe more than 5 million cases per day is on the table.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, maybe. And in these European countries, they have had restrictions, while in the US we have not had any actual restrictions anywhere for over a year.
So following from that, it is possible that maybe the estimates of infections in the US are low, and more like 60% of the population got Omicron. I find that hard to believe, but just trying to fit what is happening.
If you assume more ascertainment in other countries that are starting to surge (and maybe it has to be just 60-70% more ascertainment), everything might make sense.
For example, France is at 35% of population for cases (23M), while the US is at 24% (81M). If you divide 35% by 1.7, that takes you to 20% for France to "compare" to the US.
So maybe they need to have them find 24%*1.7 = 41% of population with cases to get to US levels. So they need another 6%, or another 4 million cases or so.
In that context, the UK also has a ways to go - they likely have very good ascertainment (compared to the US) and are only at close to US levels (28%). So they'll probably have a bit of surging to go still.
On the other hand, Denmark is very well ascertained, and they're at 47% (vast majority recently). Not seeing a surge. So they may be like the US and have had similar numbers of infections - though still probably a bit lower total for Denmark than the US; since their infections are more recent, they need fewer of them (for now) to keep the virus in check.
Or it could just all be other complicated societal factors (Americans are loners?) and another surge in the near term is coming for the US, after all, and we don't have sufficient population immunity.
Will be interesting to see what happens in about 3-4 weeks. It's hard to imagine continued downward trends with what is happening elsewhere, but maybe we really have been that good at spreading the infection to everyone here in the US. And we may have special talents when it comes to getting all the unvaccinated infected, so our efficiency at creating population immunity may be good.
Terminator857
Active Member
Isn't it common that non elderly healthy people get mild or no symptoms? Especially during cold season, many can just dismiss their symptoms as a mild cold.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes of course. All of this is assuming not all cases are counted. The question is really whether that differs greatly between countries for a variety of reasons, and whether that can explain anything that is currently happening. There is a lot of weirdness! Specifically: Countries with much higher numbers of cases to date and better vaccination levels are doing substantially worse than the US.
Anyway, based on the numbers, assuming ascertainment is the issue, I’d expect these new European “waves” to be pretty small, at least for the next 2-3 months. There just are not enough people to sustain them. After that depends on durability of immunity, etc.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
And aside from the death, the effect on global trade will be substantial for a couple months. Hopefully they can get a handle on this and suppress it (seems unlikely), get their vaccination rates up (I read they are fairly high…except for the elderly
…and they’re not doing great on boosters). Even if it doesn’t kill many (it seems like they’ll not fare that great if their elderly vaccination rates are poor), it is quite disruptive when several percent of the workforce are out sick for a couple weeks over a two-month timeframe.Not exactly what we need.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
I'm still waiting for the last one to end. The new cases dropped like a rock but the deaths from that wave are still rolling in.
and a reminder the low on new cases back in Jun 2021 was just over 12,300 we still aren't down to that level with new cases of omicron.
and if you want to try the "but this one is less deadly" line, see the image above. More are dying from Omicron than died from Delta, at least here in the US. I don't give a darn about the ratios, you can clearly see the absolute numbers are there. Also "long covid" and "brain damage" or "hear damage" or "lung damage". If the case count was higher for omicron it's likely it did do more damage outside of death.
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Yes, that's the way it works. Seems like we should be able to get to 250 deaths per day or less pretty soon. Still awful, but better!
Oh, I haven't forgotten! Those were "good days" (I actually thought COVID might be over!) and hoping we stay on our current trajectory until we get there (will take about 3-4 weeks or so). But I don't think we will get there most likely (hope I am wrong).
Yeah it's really bad. The ratio does matter though, because in the end you're limiting the deaths with a higher ratio (there's a limit to how many people can get sick). It's really far from clear how much more "mild" Omicron is than Delta or OG coronavirus. May be similar to the original.
Not quite, or at least not yet. Looks like about 200k from August through mid December for Delta, taking us to 840k, and we've only had about 150k from Omicron so far (some of these deaths, hard to know how much, were actually Delta infections, of course). We'll most likely get there in a couple months, but they're about equal in death burden, with about twice as many Omicron cases (30 million vs. 15 million (Delta)).
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