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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
adiggs
Well-Known Member
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19-update.mp3
For those interested, here is what I think is the most recent CDC briefing. It's about 35 minutes long, with Dr Messonier as the briefer.
She talked a lot about the idea of "community spread" - a phrase I hadn't previously heard. As I understand it, community spread is where you have the virus spreading in such a way that people who have become infected - you can't track back to where or how they get it.
One of the key ideas she had in her message is that for the USA, the right mental model is not IF the USA will experience community spread of this virus, it's WHEN. Accordingly, it's appropriate for individuals, businesses, events, entities, ... to do some planning and preparation for how they will respond if they're in the neighborhood where community spread happens.
Don't take my interpretation / translation as a non-medical professional to be correct or incorrect. I do encourage folks to listen to the update and form their own interpretation of tone of voice, nuance, and technical details.
Motor Mouth
Member
I admit off the top that I don't know nuthin'. That said, it feels to me like with 57 confirmed Covad-19 cases in the US currently, it's more than likely that a fatality will be recorded at some point relatively soon. If that occurs, just imagine the shrieking headlines. There's no way the market doesn't tank on that news for some period of time. Again, I don't know nuthin' but I'm neither a seller nor a buyer for the time being. HODL.
You mean an overreaction? They are reporting >10,000 flu related deaths in the US already this season...
Motor Mouth
Member
I don't agree with the attempted correlation. 15% of people infected with a common flu don't die. And, no, I'm not being hysterical alarmist. I'm predicting hysterical alarm from the market. Two different concepts.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
indeed. people freaking out about a single theoretical CV death in the US should look at how many people are killed by vending machines. Or swivel chairs. Worry about heart disease, car accidents and gun-related deaths before you start panicking about a disease that has so far killed a total of ZERO people in the US. The press-reaction, in clickbait-filled-2020 is predictable. I sadly thought people trading stocks might be more rational.
this time next year, we will laugh at the impact this had on stock prices.
Motor Mouth
Member
You may be underestimating the degree of self-interest in the US. Whenever there is a terrorist attack or a plane crash internationally, the headline in the US is whether any US citizens were hurt. I think the first US fatality will be highly overblown, but will impact the markets.
Motor Mouth
Member
The vehemence of your disagreement speaks volumes. If you think my point is invalid, that's fair. But ignore the message at your peril.
No it doesn't. You sound crazy. I posted a chart. You are wrong and spreading FUD
Motor Mouth
Member
The DOW dropped 1000 points in one day based on this fear. I'm not making it up and I'm not suggesting it's valid. I'm suggesting it will be overblown and will likely cause a market overreaction. If you disagree, again, that's fine. We shall see.
Motor Mouth
Member
This board really does try to punish non-group think. I'm not a trader and I have only a core holding. As I said, neither selling nor buying, just suggesting a possible glitch in the matrix isn't unlikely.
You already posted (and you or a mod deleted) false statistics. You don't appear to be making a good faith argument. Anyway I'm pretty sure this topic is banned so I'm done talking about it. If people choose to live in fear, I can't save them.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Wouldn't a high death toll for old people actually benefit the economy?
covid-19 and market impact:
There was a legitimate reason to be concerned about a new virus that we know nothing about that could mutate to a more deadly form. That didn't happen.
The likely scenarios that I thought could play out, since I think the virus is beyond the containment stage:
a) You get a worldwide breakout covid-19, and a tanked economy because of unreasonable fear instilled in the general public by main stream media.
b) You get a worldwide breakout covid-19, but economy is not too much impacted if the governments are able to properly communicate the message that this new virus is likely not much more harmful than regular flu.
i.e. you get worldwide breakout of the virus in either case. But we had the option to choose between a tanked economy or one that is hurt but not as severely which would have allowed a speedy recovery.
Now I am leaning toward the possibility of a) scenario.
I am currently hedged against a) by protective puts (albeit a little "oversized" compared to whats there to protect). This would allow me to squeeze money out of my TSLA positions without actually selling any of my shares, and this would also be a source of dry powder if a) scenario ends up playing out.
There was a legitimate reason to be concerned about a new virus that we know nothing about that could mutate to a more deadly form. That didn't happen.
The likely scenarios that I thought could play out, since I think the virus is beyond the containment stage:
a) You get a worldwide breakout covid-19, and a tanked economy because of unreasonable fear instilled in the general public by main stream media.
b) You get a worldwide breakout covid-19, but economy is not too much impacted if the governments are able to properly communicate the message that this new virus is likely not much more harmful than regular flu.
i.e. you get worldwide breakout of the virus in either case. But we had the option to choose between a tanked economy or one that is hurt but not as severely which would have allowed a speedy recovery.
Now I am leaning toward the possibility of a) scenario.
I am currently hedged against a) by protective puts (albeit a little "oversized" compared to whats there to protect). This would allow me to squeeze money out of my TSLA positions without actually selling any of my shares, and this would also be a source of dry powder if a) scenario ends up playing out.
Neither do 15% of people infected with COVID-19. WHO's mean mortality rate for the disease is around 1%. Predominantly the elderly. It was 2-3% in Wuhan, where the healthcare system was overloaded.
Its relatively low mortality rate has actually been the problem, in that isolated cases in a given area have been easy to dismiss as just a bad seasonal flu until it becomes common. If a new disease breaks out and a third of the infected people die, it's hard to escape notice.
This is really confusing to me. We make seasonal flu vaccines every year. Among them, for other coronaviruses. Why would it take a year and a half to make this one?
ED: Looking into this some more, and it makes even less sense. I ran into this about how vaccines against wild-type bird flus are made:
Making a Candidate Vaccine Virus (CVV) for a HPAI (Bird Flu) Virus | Avian Influenza (Flu)
Apparently they're more difficult than seasonal flu vaccines because bird flus tend to kill the eggs that vaccines are grown in... and despite that, it "is a multistep process that takes months, from start to finish". And one of those steps is the distribution of the finished vaccine.
ED2: Looks like they expect to have the answer to whether Modena's vaccine is both safe and effective by July or August. According to Fauci.
First potential coronavirus vaccine arrives in US
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I very much came to the same conclusion looking through the daily situation reports of the WHO (Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports) The mortality rate in Hubei Province is much higher than in all other provinces. So it seems something about Hubei is contributing to the deadliness of the virus, which most likely boils down to being taken by surprise by the outbreak and the ensuing chaos and absolute overload of the medical system.
plumazul
Member
The notion is that taking care of old people is very expensive. Especially healthcare costs, especially when it happens by a slow, wasting disease; by contrast, a comparatively fast death by pneumonia is much cheaper. Beyond healthcare, old people do not work but still consume services.
It's probably true. But offsetting all this is the economic damage caused by extra sick time (and the rare working-age person who dies) and fear-related changes to consumer behavior.
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