Coronavirus

[EVNow]

I believe the majority of the people who are hospitalized are above 55. That 15-20% number is also skewed toward the upper age range.

That doesn't matter - for that age group the hospitalization rate after contracting covid is 15 to 20%. That's all that matters - for someone in that age group - thinking about personal risk.

 

[bkp_duke]

This math is wrong off by a factor. Based on Daniel in SD's chart, that would be 185,000 - 370,000 deaths (0.1 - 0.2%) in that optimized scenario. And I get your point about how improbable that scenario will be to play out, but Kim's point was about human psychology, and you absolutely can NOT contain people. This lockdown method will leak like a sieve.

Those darwin award candidates in Kentucky (even by the worst estimates, 7 out of 10 will live, with best case being well above 9 out of 10) will be immunized and back to normal far faster than us lockdown folks. Yes people will die, but it seems they'd rather deal with that then to have people die from treating themselves with aquarium cleaner.

Thanks to decades of modern medicine and society, natural selection no longer selects only on ones physical environment, but psychological and economic elements as well. We might become the new white moths fluttering on the dark bark of an asp tree. Over-caution can be deadly too in certain situations.

If the idiots in KY want to have their coronavirus parties, let them. But they should have to sign a waiver first that says they give up any medical care for their stupidity.

 

[Singuy]

That doesn't matter - for that age group the hospitalization rate after contracting covid is 15 to 20%. That's all that matters - for someone in that age group - thinking about personal risk.

Might have to account for some biases as in pt and doctors may want to hospitalize you more vs say if you caught the Flu. I know people who will refuse to be discharged if they are Covid positive since people are so scared.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Short update from The Netherlands.... all gatherings of more than 2 people are now illegal

You know its serious when the Dutch outlaw threesomes.

41 yo showed up with SOB....

Her husband?

WA updates their numbers each afternoon. Until today. I guess the crisis is finished there. Or they're still counting....

CA got results from 1254 tests today. NY, with fewer people, does 10x that many. Almost 30% of CA tests were positive vs. almost 40% for NY. Both states are under-testing, but IMHO CA is worse.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I believe the majority of the people who are hospitalized are above 55. That 15-20% number is also skewed toward the upper age range.

Here's the data from Spain: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...hina/documentos/Actualizacion_52_COVID-19.pdf
This does look lower than the CDC data for younger people. At 41 years old (7.5% chance of hospitalization?) still not something I'd want to risk at this point. You young people are lucky!
The 7.5% is probably high since I'm sure people with less severe symptoms are staying home and not being tested.

 

[Singuy]

You know its serious when the Dutch outlaw threesomes.

Her husband?

WA updates their numbers each afternoon. Until today. I guess the crisis is over there. Or they're still counting....

CA got results from 1254 tests today. NY, with fewer people, does 10x that many. Almost 30% of CA tests were positive vs. almost 40% for NY. Both states are under-testing, but IMHO CA is worse.

LoL, SOB is shortness of breath.

 

[Singuy]

Here's the data from Spain: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...hina/documentos/Actualizacion_52_COVID-19.pdf
This does look lower than the CDC data for younger people. At 41 years old (7.5% chance of hospitalization?) still not something I'd want to risk at this point. You young people are lucky!
The 7.5% is probably high since I'm sure people with less severe symptoms are staying home and not being tested.
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Yes we are always suckered into extrapolating data based on the information given and always forget that all these numbers are BS, only the number of deaths are real. We may be orders of magnitude off based on how this virus has the possibility of producing no symptoms like the FLU. I do think the FLU cases accounted for how 75% of the people who gets it has no symptoms since studies about that is out there and you can plug it into an equation. We don't have this constant for Covid right now.

 

[nwdiver]

If anyone has a copy of 'Atlas Shrugged' or any other works of Ayn Rand you might want to put them into a bucket of water before they spontaneously combust.

Coronavirus stimulus package to exceed $6T, Larry Kudlow says

 

[linux-works]

If the idiots in KY want to have their coronavirus parties, let them. But they should have to sign a waiver first that says they give up any medical care for their stupidity.

I'd go further, put a red letter C on their heads so that all can see who the VIRUS CARRIERS might be.

socially outcast anyone who endangers the lives of others. double fines and jail time it if they are trying to hurt people on purpose (aka 'sticking it to the libs').

maybe go further. if you endanger lives and continue on with your crap, you get put into cages.

the followers of the orange one will understand that.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yes we are always suckered into extrapolating data based on the information given and always forget that all these numbers are BS, only the number of deaths are real. We may be orders of magnitude off based on how this virus has the possibility of producing no symptoms like the FLU. I do think the FLU cases accounted for how 75% of the people who gets it has no symptoms since studies about that is out there and you can plug it into an equation. We don't have this constant for Covid right now.

You're going to have to explain that a little better. These are cases where people tested positive for COVID-19.

 

[Daniel in SD]

If anyone has a copy of 'Atlas Shrugged' or any other works of Ayn Rand you might want to put them into a bucket of water before they spontaneously combust.

Coronavirus stimulus package to exceed $6T, Larry Kudlow says

 

[MikeQ]

If the idiots in KY want to have their coronavirus parties, let them. But they should have to sign a waiver first that says they give up any medical care for their stupidity.

Californians are making a strong contribution to the Darwin Awards this year too:

Crowds pack California beaches despite coronavirus order

 

[Singuy]

You're going to have to explain that a little better. These are cases where people tested positive for COVID-19.

I posted an article earlier where they tested people's antibody to the Flu strain of that year and found that 75% of the people who had the antibody were asymptomatic. So to get a clearer picture of how deadly Covid is, similar studies must be done because like you said, we may not be accounting for X amount of people who had it and didn't even know, or though it was just a common cold. This X number could be stupid big which throws the risk of this virus off by orders of magnitude.

 

[bkp_duke]

Californians are making a strong contribution to the Darwin Awards this year too:

Crowds pack California beaches despite coronavirus order

Yeah, that one face palmed me.

For the past week I've been watching people walk by our house in groups of 5-10, about 2-3 ft apart. . .

 

[MikeQ]

In Florida some of the beaches were banning alcohol on the beach in an effort to make the spring breakers leave. They just took their booze to the hotels and had big pool parties with people crammed even closer together.

 

[linux-works]

Yeah, that one face palmed me.

For the past week I've been watching people walk by our house in groups of 5-10, about 2-3 ft apart. . .

I'm the last person to want to call out the police or other authority figures, but ...

these are selfish people and they obviously can't be trusted to understand the gravity of this situation.

anyone acting like that - give them a night in jail. I'm serious. turn the legal volume UP before too many people die.

we obviously, as a human race, can't be trusted to keep even our own LIVES intact. its time to bring adults in who can run things and keep us alive.

 

[deonb]

Short update from The Netherlands: today saw the largest number of deaths (63) and new cases (811) yet. A day earlier the government decided to tighten the rules. No full lockdown yet, but all gatherings of more than 2 people are now illegal (was up to 100 people before) and that restriction will stay in place until at least 1 June! That means they expect this to last for at least another 10 weeks. This is not going to be over by Easter.

Wow, leaders who can do math. That’s refreshing!

 

[eevee-fan]

Speaking of #MATH, if we fail social distancing, after Easter...

 

[Daniel in SD]

I posted an article earlier where they tested people's antibody to the Flu strain of that year and found that 75% of the people who had the antibody were asymptomatic. So to get a clearer picture of how deadly Covid is, similar studies must be done because like you said, we may not be accounting for X amount of people who had it and didn't even know, or though it was just a common cold. This X number could be stupid big which throws the risk of this virus off by orders of magnitude.

Flu antibody tests have pretty bad sensitivity (50%-70% according to CDC). If you test everyone you could get 50% false positives. I bet it varies a lot each year since the flu mutates so much. Maybe someone with more knowledge can chime in? Could be wrong.
My point right now is not about how deadly COVID-19 is under ideal conditions. As a middle aged person (41) I'm worried about the chance I will need to have a functioning hospital. Looks like it's higher than I am comfortable with.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Can you share the source of the state-by-state restriction map? It's a very handy tool.

New York Times

See Which States and Cities Have Told Residents to Stay at Home

I doubt that map is anywhere near accurate as we have restrictions in Tennessee and it's not shown there.

It updates continuously and it looks like the initial official restrictions went in place yesterday. Too bad it didn't happen two weeks ago; you'd be ahead of the game. They don't have historical granular information at the county level, just the current restrictions.

And here's the updated map today.

Here's a nice website for visualizing the data over time - you can play with the sliders.

You can see the next states to explode will be New Jersey, Louisiana, Illinois, Michigan, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, and Georgia.

Efforts for Visualizing and Tracking of the Corona Virus (COVID-19)