AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
We need to have public health capacity at the local level to conduct surveillance, contact trace, quarantine, and isolate all local cases - especially in the places with "minimal" problems right now - to get out from the lockdown everywhere. It's totally fine to have lockdowns calibrated to the local situation. But the reality is that right now we do not have that capacity, either on the testing front, or the local "troops on the ground" front. We cannot calibrate lockdowns to the local situation because we don't know the local situation everywhere (could nearly say "anywhere").
And other than Dr. Fauci's statements (which he has no authority to make happen), I see no evidence of this happening (it's something that I and others have been calling for here for weeks now).
So we're continuing to lengthen the timeline and increase the spread and increase the death toll through disorganization and lack of action. Clinging to a false hope that somehow there will be some Easter miracle. There won't be.
So, as far as trading is concerned, the market appears to be listening to Trump and believing the hype, while the reality on the ground is that this is going to grind on for far longer than it ever should have. I'd go short.
We could have easily had just a brief 4 week shutdown - we had plenty of warning and time to prepare. But looks like there's no hope of restarting things until mid-May at the earliest. Maybe in small sectors (the West Coast states hopefully) we'll be able to reopen. But even there we need that surveillance system in place to be able to catch the imports from other areas. So it will be a challenge, even in California and Washington, where the curves appear to be bending, albeit slowly. Oregon is a disaster because they have no testing. Inexcusable.
And other than Dr. Fauci's statements (which he has no authority to make happen), I see no evidence of this happening (it's something that I and others have been calling for here for weeks now).
So we're continuing to lengthen the timeline and increase the spread and increase the death toll through disorganization and lack of action. Clinging to a false hope that somehow there will be some Easter miracle. There won't be.
So, as far as trading is concerned, the market appears to be listening to Trump and believing the hype, while the reality on the ground is that this is going to grind on for far longer than it ever should have. I'd go short.
We could have easily had just a brief 4 week shutdown - we had plenty of warning and time to prepare. But looks like there's no hope of restarting things until mid-May at the earliest. Maybe in small sectors (the West Coast states hopefully) we'll be able to reopen. But even there we need that surveillance system in place to be able to catch the imports from other areas. So it will be a challenge, even in California and Washington, where the curves appear to be bending, albeit slowly. Oregon is a disaster because they have no testing. Inexcusable.