Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register
  • We just completed a significant update, but we still have some fixes and adjustments to make, so please bear with us for the time being. Cheers!

Coronavirus

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,318
21,364
NorCal
Is the case growth factor based on just active cases? Otherwise if it is total cumulative cases, I don't understand how a factor <1 is mathematically possible. I do think that active cases is a better metric to follow to know what is stressing the health system and how many remain at risk of death from the infection.

His growth factor in the chart I posted is for "Daily Cases." Based on his other charts, I believe his term "Daily Cases" is what some other people call "New Cases" or "Daily New Cases." For Italy, he also tracks Active Cases (including hospitalization status), ICU loads, and many other things here: Coronavirus Italia

I agree that active cases is a better metric for the purposes you mention. But I also keep an eye on "New Cases" as one potential leading indicator that infections have peaked, although it obviously has limitations since testing in different regions fluctuates so much over time, etc. As others have mentioned hospitalization data would also be useful but is hard to come by for many jurisdictions.
 
Last edited:

SageBrush

REJECT Fascism
May 7, 2015
12,084
14,993
New Mexico
With considerable help, I think I have convinced myself * that
y = e^kt should be used rather than
y = a^x

where k = a -1
to extrapolate near term future cases from a presumed growth rate

Any dissenters ?

* If I understand correctly, it comes down to using continuous rather than periodic compounding.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,068
22,899
...

Take that power away from insurance companies by forcing the publication of prices, and the entire landscape becomes MUCH more competitive and cost effective.

Based upon years of practice both in an office and hospital setting, I can tell you that the rates vary not by a few %, but hundreds of %. Sometimes this is to the benefit of the hospital (almost never to the actual doctor), sometimes it is not.

I could be persuaded to allow the government to compete with insurance companies, and that would be good (it already happens in the pediatric space with Medicaid). But to allow the government to take it all over and dictate everything would be a colossal blunder.
Absolutely true, IMHO. Many people think a monopoly is a good idea for most things. Personally I'm largely in favor of that for monetary policy and national defense. Most fail to perceive that oligarchy is more insidious. Several categories of insurance are dominated by a tiny handful of players who tacitly concur in price fixing. Health insurance is an excellent example, at least in par because large hospital groups, pharmacy and drug companies manage to effectively divide the markets.

That is true of several industries that do not have those characteristics, but the good ones have price and feature transparency. It is odd that there is such consensus that consumers should not know and end providers should not know. It is bizarre that physicians and other heath care professionals usually cannot know the economic details fo their own activities. People form groups to try to control their destinies, but still are subject to the whims of unknown forces. Oddly disclosure at every level would help. Hidden decisions from government and every level guarantee corruption. Normally that is not illegal because the laws are written to mandate that condition.

We have a saying in Brazil that the US and Brazil have the same level of corruption. In the US there are laws establishing the corruption. In Brazil we're more efficient; we skip the laws.

On our topic the US system exacerbates the problems because it combines the worst of all systems, so we end out with the highest cost but with middling outcomes. The resilience and coordination require to be prepared for unexpected events requires planning coordination and contingency planning.

As we debate this we should remember that the Obama administration had a planning session to deal with a viral outbreak. Some things happened most did not. The Trump Administration and one too, but almost everyone that heard the results has been dismissed and the few steps forward from the previous study we promptly dismantled.

Until the US accepts the necessity for contingency preparation and equipment stockpiling in 'massive quantities' these disasters will recur. It's not just the Trump, it's the system.

This is off-topic, but it is relevant here because the exact analogue exists with the US Space efforts including NASA. Why, when Billion are blown can Boeing of Lockheed do this when SpaceX can do it cheaply with not much help. Somehow that seems to be relevant. Elon does need new challenges now that he's fixed Space,Vehicles and grid services.
 

lencap

Member
May 27, 2013
139
415
Raleigh, NC
I find reading through this thread interesting, and unfortunately reflective of the massive divide within our country.

Some of the posts are defending the "Red State" perspective, others the "Blue State", and among these posts there seems to be an underlying tone of "my side is right, yours is wrong". This is very disturbing, for it suggests that whatever action the government, health authorities, etc. may take someone/group will believe that those actions are based on a motive of "getting even" with the "other side". And that is the tragedy of what our country has devolved into.

What is particularly bothersome is that this is the Tesla Forum, and generalizing a bit, I'd assume that the demographics of this group compared to the "average" for the entire US population is composed of an above average income/net worth/educated population that is also overrepresented in management and professional circles. The implication being that in our professional lives we're likely to be guided by rational thought/analyis and factual information to make consistently above average decisions. Yet, I fear, that isn't always visible as reflected by over 300 posts above that are seemingly not always focused on the core problem: "What is the best path forward?".

I don't have a particular perspective, nor do I believe either side is exclusively right or wrong. I do know that polarization is at record highs last seen in the 1930s by most measures, and that such an atmosphere leads to distrust and emotional/impulsive decision making. Tell me, if this forum is gripped by polarization and justification of opinion/perspective instead of facts (which we don't seem to be able to agree on either) what is the long term outlook for overcoming other serious issues that won't remain dormant for long?

We have a LOT of brain power on this forum, from people of widely different backgrounds. Is this the best we can do?
 

SageBrush

REJECT Fascism
May 7, 2015
12,084
14,993
New Mexico
Anecdote:
My wife and I have a reservation at a Washington DC Marriott for 4/29. We expected to cancel but Marriott notified us today that the hotel is now closed and they have therefore cancelled our reservation (even though it is a month away.)

I'm surprised by the Marriott step. Not that I disagree with their estimate, only that they see a reason to act now.
 
Last edited:

jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
9,301
30,953
Atlanta, GA
His growth factor in the chart I posted is for "Daily Cases." Based on his other charts, I believe his term "Daily Cases" is what some other people call "New Cases" or "Daily New Cases." For Italy, he also tracks Active Cases (including hospitalization status), ICU loads, and many other things here: Coronavirus Italia

I agree that active cases is a better metric for the purposes you mention. But I also keep an eye on "New Cases" as one potential leading indicator that infections have peaked, although it obviously has limitations since testing in different regions fluctuates so much over time, etc. As others have mentioned hospitalization data would also be useful but is hard to come by for many jurisdictions.
Ok, I think "Total Case Growth Factor" is what you want. Only, what he is actually providing there is total case growth RATE. You add 1 to the rate to get the factor.

Yes, hospitalization rates are even more indicative of stress on the health care resources.

BTW, I live in Georgia and am concerned that 31% of our states cases are hospitalized. I hear that are at capacity already. BUT there is no statewide lockdown.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Lessmog and Dr. J

jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
9,301
30,953
Atlanta, GA
With considerable help, I think I have convinced myself * that
y = e^kt should be used rather than
y = a^x

where k = a -1
to extrapolate near term future cases from a presumed growth rate

Any dissenters ?

* If I understand correctly, it comes down to using continuous rather than periodic compounding.
The two are equivalent if k = ln(a).

BTW, ln(a) ~ a - 1 if a is close to 1.
 
Last edited:

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,318
21,364
NorCal
BTW, I live in Georgia and am concerned that 31% of our states cases are hospitalized. I hear that are at capacity already. BUT there is no statewide lockdown.

That doesn't sound good. Unfortunately, it seems like similar situations are about to become increasingly common across the U.S.

COVID_Gottlieb_USCities.png
 

sparcs

Active Member
Nov 8, 2018
1,180
6,954
USA
Anecdote:
My wife and I have a reservation at a Washington DC Marriott for 4/29. We expected to cancel but Marriott notified us today that the hotel is now closed and they have therefore cancelled our reservation (even though it is a month away.)

I'm surprised by the Marriott step. Not that I disagree with their estimate, only that they see a reason to act now.

Mariott is cancelling reservations out into late May around Memorial Day as well. Looks like some businesses are getting much more prepared.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: ReddyLeaf

Open Interest

Supporting Member
Jun 18, 2018
297
1,275
SF Bay Area
This is a fine example of inoculum.

Everybody should read this and think only one thing: MASKS

There is a small but growing understanding in the public that masks will decrease R naught, but almost nil understanding that masks will reduce disease severity (all else being equal.)
Curious about this. Why would a mask reduce disease severity?
 

deonb

Active Member
Mar 4, 2013
4,057
4,208
Redmond, WA
I have literally wasted years of my life on the phone arguing the medical necessity of a procedure or test for a patient . . . with a bean counter with no medical training on the other end reading from a script. I am no fan of insurance companies, nor the owners of hospital systems. I think the US healthcare system can be FAR better. But I am a HUGE skeptic of putting that kind of power in the government's hands to determine for us (i.e. socialized medicine).

How was your experiences dealing with Medicare?
 

SageBrush

REJECT Fascism
May 7, 2015
12,084
14,993
New Mexico
Curious about this. Why would a mask reduce disease severity?
Inoculum --- the starting viral load.

The underlying notion is that a smaller load will give the body longer to mount an immune response before it is overwhelmed. By analogy it is not much different than saying it is better to take public health measures sooner rather than later in an epidemic curve.

It could also be true that a mask reduces immediate viral penetration to the lower airways during the exposure. Think of inhaler use at a difference Vs placing the inhaler at the lips.
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top