EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not just a question of "that's on them". This kind of behavior by a large % of people will make the outbreak worse.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
CDC released a woman in Texas who tested positive for the coronavirus: 'Totally unacceptable'
“Unfortunately after the person’s release, the CDC received the results of another test that showed a weakly positive confirmation of the virus that causes COVID-19,” Nirenberg said at a news briefing Monday. “As mayor of this city, I find it totally unacceptable that CDC would release a patient prior to receiving all test results and potentially expose the public to this harm.”
After the woman was released, she visited North Star Mall, where she browsed stores and ate at the food court, said assistant director of communicable diseases at San Antonio Health Dr. Anita Kurian. The woman also checked in to a hotel. Local officials are tracking 16 people from the mall and three at the hotel who they believe came into contact with the woman.
I can't speak for all countries in Europe and if France is different then you may know better but Germany as the largest country beside others does officially from the Ministry of Health not to go to a Hospital if you believe to be infected. Only serious cases go into the Hospital and are tested at arrival.
All mild cases are asked to stay at home. Thats official.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
CDC has scrubbed the numbers of people who have been tested for the virus from their website. It's a great feeling to know that politics is dictating how the CDC handles a possible pandemic.
Judd Legum on Twitter
CDC also cancelled their daily press briefing without giving a reason, 5 minutes before it was supposed to start today.
A friend of mine is middle management for a company that manufactures nylon polymers. His office and their manufacturing operations are in neighboring Henan province. As of two days ago, they were running at 30-50% capacity. This notion that there was only a temporary disruption to Chinese production and everything is back to normal is absurd. If China has been as effective at reducing infections/deaths as the numbers suggest, it’s because of the extreme measures they have implemented to stop the spreading. This mean anything but business as usual...
It will be interesting to understand better why for instance Spain, Germany and other have zero deaths with above 165 and 120 total cases and the US with 88 has 6.
Is this just the different systems or are these different virus strains or just too small samples?
Many question... One day we will hopefully know but one thing is clear already, the Corona virus makes weaknesses of health systems visible. No offense against the US we learn here about our issue too e.g. masks & coat supply.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Its all about stock market. Infact Trump even started talking about corona only after the big crash last week.
They have made the rule that noone can talk about the virus except VP. All communication needs to go through VP. We should expect everything will be done to keep the market from learning the full details of the pandemic - but the market will eventually catch up.
marvinat0rz
Member
I've purchased a small amount of May 15 puts on the S&P500, with a strike price implying a 25% fall in the S&P500, and sold 25% of my total long-term TSLA holdings (tax deferred account) as a hedge against coronavirus-triggered macro pullback. This means that 30% of my assets are now in cash. I am comfortable with risk, and I have never been this defensively hedged before. I've never had an intuition this strong that things are much worse than they look.
Don't read this as a fire alarm to sell your long-term holdings, I don't want that responsibility. But I'd like to share my thoughts.
Outside of China, we are currently seeing an exponential increase in Covid-19 infections. Doubling time is approximately five days. This means that even though the total non-China infections are currently low, they are about to be dramatically higher. Absent strong quarantines and other preventive measures, this will happen two weeks from now. This will come as a shock to many. Exponential growth does not feel intuitive.
If slowing down the infection in order to avoid overwhelming intensive care services becomes a priority, it will lead to a large amount of workers self-quarantining at home for two weeks at a time. If it does not, there will be hundreds of thousands, and soon thereafter millions, of people sick from work for a few weeks. I would be very surprised if this does not cause a macro pullback in the stock market for at least a few months. This scenario could be prevented if aggressive self-quarantining and testing started now, but I don't see signs of that in the US.
(Obviously, there will also be a death toll which will be tragic for those affected. That is the bigger side of this which I actually care more about, but there's nothing in my power I can do about it, beyond taking precautions for my loved ones).
Hope I'm wrong about both these assessments, but I can't ignore my reasoning on this any longer.
Don't read this as a fire alarm to sell your long-term holdings, I don't want that responsibility. But I'd like to share my thoughts.
Outside of China, we are currently seeing an exponential increase in Covid-19 infections. Doubling time is approximately five days. This means that even though the total non-China infections are currently low, they are about to be dramatically higher. Absent strong quarantines and other preventive measures, this will happen two weeks from now. This will come as a shock to many. Exponential growth does not feel intuitive.
If slowing down the infection in order to avoid overwhelming intensive care services becomes a priority, it will lead to a large amount of workers self-quarantining at home for two weeks at a time. If it does not, there will be hundreds of thousands, and soon thereafter millions, of people sick from work for a few weeks. I would be very surprised if this does not cause a macro pullback in the stock market for at least a few months. This scenario could be prevented if aggressive self-quarantining and testing started now, but I don't see signs of that in the US.
(Obviously, there will also be a death toll which will be tragic for those affected. That is the bigger side of this which I actually care more about, but there's nothing in my power I can do about it, beyond taking precautions for my loved ones).
Hope I'm wrong about both these assessments, but I can't ignore my reasoning on this any longer.
Health of the population is also an issue, with heart disease and obesity making death more likely...but, Washington is one of our healthiest populations. Of course it's hard to parse out who is actually dying. Could be blind luck that it hits a vulnerable group (like old person's community).
EVNow
Well-Known Member
We don't have a healthcare "system" in the US. It is a patch-work of state specific private insurance, medicare for the old etc. It completely broken - only reason you won't hear much about it is that it kind of works for people with decent jobs / money. There are over 50 Million who are uninsured / underinsured.
The large number of deaths is because for weeks the virus circulated undetected in WA. It spread inside a senior nursing home full of very vulnerable residents.
All because US refused to take serious action - again because Trump is afraid of hurting market sentiment. He thinks his re-election effort is tied to stock market.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
The US has a "don't test, don't tell" policy.
Seattle has 5 deaths out of 14 confirmed cases. 35% fatality rate? No, just an absence of testing. There is at least one known case that the official stats don't include and most likely a few hundred undiagnosed cases in the community. Maybe even 1000, but not 10s of thousands. At least not yet....
The virus came to Seattle on January 15 via a man traveling from Wuhan. He got sick a few days later and tested positive on the 21st. They tracked his closest contacts and tested them, but didn't test anyone else until people started dying.
The reason that the US numbers of cases are so low is only a handful of cases in Washington are being tested so far. Expect many more positives, and many more deaths from Kirkland in the coming days. No effective quarantine measures have been enacted yet. View what you see on the press conferences with the same skepticism you would view a VW power point presentation about their 2025 EV plans. There is a huge gap between the press conference, and what is actually happening on the ground.
Quarantine would be impossible in the US anyway. You would need the national guard with orders to shoot on sight to make that work.
We will see IMO a wipe saw effect in the supply chains with delayed but unpleasant interruptions. That will be more severe where second or third sourcing is not possible and in industries with large supplier bases in e.g. China.
Time will tell how severe its gonna be but there should be no illusion of that impact.
I’m afraid this policy will blow up in Trump’s face. He is hoping the virus will simply go away, but all it does is spread further, not just in Washington but in many states. The stock market also seems obvlivious with today’s strong recovery (not that I’m complaining!). But every politician downplaying the virus and censoring what warnings come out, will in the end make it worse and hit the economy and stock market harder.
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