Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

View what you see on the press conferences with the same skepticism

Treble that for federal announcements now that trump/pence are censoring and massaging.

 

[adiggs]

It will be interesting to understand better why for instance Spain, Germany and other have zero deaths with above 165 and 120 total cases and the US with 88 has 6.

Is this just the different systems or are these different virus strains or just too small samples?

Many question... One day we will hopefully know but one thing is clear already, the Corona virus makes weaknesses of health systems visible. No offense against the US we learn here about our issue too e.g. masks & coat supply.

One way to keep the number of cases low is to avoid testing. Low or no testing - low or no confirmed cases.

If you see a very high deaths to cases ratio, that looks to me like a sound indicator of a country pursuing an ostrich strategy.

All is well!


(I wish that was more sarcastic - my personal impression of the quality of the overall US response to this is ... really bad)

 

[avoigt]

Health of the population is also an issue, with heart disease and obesity making death more likely...but, Washington is one of our healthiest populations. Of course it's hard to parse out who is actually dying. Could be blind luck that it hits a vulnerable group (like old person's community).

The US has a "don't test, don't tell" policy.

Seattle has 5 deaths out of 14 confirmed cases. 35% fatality rate? No, just an absence of testing. There is at least one known case that the official stats don't include and most likely a few hundred undiagnosed cases in the community. Maybe even 1000, but not 10s of thousands. At least not yet....

The virus came to Seattle on January 15 via a man traveling from Wuhan. He got sick a few days later and tested positive on the 21st. They tracked his closest contacts and tested them, but didn't test anyone else until people started dying.

The reason that the US numbers of cases are so low is only a handful of cases in Washington are being tested so far. Expect many more positives, and many more deaths from Kirkland in the coming days. No effective quarantine measures have been enacted yet. View what you see on the press conferences with the same skepticism you would view a VW power point presentation about their 2025 EV plans. There is a huge gap between the press conference, and what is actually happening on the ground.

Quarantine would be impossible in the US anyway. You would need the national guard with orders to shoot on sight to make that work.

Its sad to hear and although I have been many times in the US I luckily never had to go to a hospital to experience what many told me.

This is clearly bad and will help the virus to spread more easily and an increased death rate can be expected too. Its hard to understand they don't do more though as its obvious what potentially can happen if you don't act very early on with strong measures.

In any case the virus is out in the world already and over the years we likely will get it sooner or later while once a vaccine is available it won't be too risky. The question is only about the one year lead time everybody talks thats needed to develop the vaccine.

Lets hope there are still some adults in the US health systems who step up.

 

[jerry33]

Its sad to hear and although I have been many times in the US I luckily never had to go to a hospital to experience what many told me.

This is clearly bad and will help the virus to spread more easily and an increased death rate can be expected too. Its hard to understand they don't do more though as its obvious what potentially can happen if you don't act very early on with strong measures.

It's not really that hard to understand. The policy appears to be "eliminate poverty by killing off anyone who makes less than $1M/year".

 

[avoigt]

I’m afraid this policy will blow up in Trump’s face. He is hoping the virus will simply go away, but all it does is spread further, not just in Washington but in many states. The stock market also seems obvlivious with today’s strong recovery (not that I’m complaining!). But every politician downplaying the virus and censoring what warnings come out, will in the end make it worse and hit the economy and stock market harder.

Avoiding panic and hysteria is a positive if it come together with tough measures and no exceptions as we see them here in Germany. That works.

Just have watched a popular talk show with politicians, Docs and Scientists who really found the right balance to calm people down while not playing it down. Thats good. People need a lot of information but also understand its a flue and usually mild and as stated from the Medicine Expert, the likelihood to get the infection versus a normal flue is extremely low and people also die by a normal flue unfortunately.

Also maybe interesting, you can't get infected "over the air" unless someone spits into your mouth. Its not even a problem to shake hands he said but you need to wash them often and long and be sure you don't touch your face before.

 

[avoigt]

It's not really that hard to understand. The policy appears to be "eliminate poverty by killing off anyone who makes less than $1M/year".

Like in the stock market, different rules if you are rich or not... sad but true.

 

[KSilver2000]

Also maybe interesting, you can't get infected "over the air" unless someone spits into your mouth. Its not even a problem to shake hands he said but you need to wash them often and long and be sure you don't touch your face before.

Why I’ve been saying all this time that it’s not as critical for the healthy to wear a mask versus those who have flu-like symptoms. Those pathogens don’t stay suspended in the air for long. It’s touching surfaces that causes more spread. Mostly, the mask helps healthy people from touching their mouth/face with unwashed hands.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The hits just keep on comin':

CDC lab for coronavirus test kits may have been contaminated

A top federal scientist sounded the alarm about what he feared was contamination in an Atlanta lab where the government made test kits for the coronavirus, according to sources familiar with the situation in Atlanta.

CDC abruptly postpones coronavirus press briefing

The CDC today abruptly postponed a press briefing on the coronavirus response.

CDC spokesperson Ben Haynes told reporters on the scheduled call that it had been pushed back and did not provide an explanation as to why or when it would be rescheduled. A White House spokesperson later said the CDC would participate in an afternoon briefing today on the coronavirus response with Vice President Mike Pence.

The postponement of the briefing comes after a number of states reported new cases over the weekend and federal officials confirmed the country’s first and second deaths from the virus. CDC has been holding sporadic telephone briefings with reporters, including a call on Saturday after the first death in the U.S. was announced.

EDIT: Oh yeah this too.

CDC drops coronavirus testing numbers from their website

A tally of the number of people tested for the novel coronavirus disappeared from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website on Monday. The change was first reported by journalist Judd Legum on Twitter. The disappearance of the numbers comes less than a week after the first cases of the virus with unknown origins were reported in the US. In the past few days, six deaths due to COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, have been confirmed in Washington state.

My thoughts on the US response thus far:

 

[sixela]

It's not really that hard to understand. The policy appears to be "eliminate poverty by killing off anyone who makes less than $1M/year".

 

[AlexS]

It will be interesting to understand better why for instance Spain, Germany and other have zero deaths with above 165 and 120 total cases and the US with 88 has 6.

Is this just the different systems or are these different virus strains or just too small samples?

Many question... One day we will hopefully know but one thing is clear already, the Corona virus makes weaknesses of health systems visible. No offense against the US we learn here about our issue too e.g. masks & coat supply.

In Germany and Spain elderly nursing home is not affected, in US a lot of cases are older people.

 

[X Fan]

It will be interesting to understand better why for instance Spain, Germany and other have zero deaths with above 165 and 120 total cases and the US with 88 has 6.

Is this just the different systems or are these different virus strains or just too small samples?

Many question... One day we will hopefully know but one thing is clear already, the Corona virus makes weaknesses of health systems visible. No offense against the US we learn here about our issue too e.g. masks & coat supply.

I can't speak for Europe but re-USA: in addition to the deaths attributed to older persons from the boat off Japan, 4 of recent came from same nursing home center (Life Care Center).

Sadly, the worst place for a severe virus such as this to entrench is at a "old" age home with a very vulnerable population. My son is a physician at UNC Hospitals and he notes that every winter they are inundated with flu cases originating from an older population derived from nursing homes (with not always good outcomes).

btw: there are very fine hospitals in the States but it's always better to stay out of them (either here or around the world.)

 

[KarenRei]

Important information about the outbreak, from Reddit:

 

[adiggs]

I want to laugh AND cry @KarenRei .

Or maybe help out with the script when this movie gets done.

 

[Causalien]

Why I’ve been saying all this time that it’s not as critical for the healthy to wear a mask versus those who have flu-like symptoms. Those pathogens don’t stay suspended in the air for long. It’s touching surfaces that causes more spread. Mostly, the mask helps healthy people from touching their mouth/face with unwashed hands.

The surface formites are more of a worry at home when one member of the family is infected. Coughing is a bigger issue outside. When I go out nowadays I don't touch surfaces. What will get me are the people coughing. I know it's getting worse cause now when I walk down the street in downtown, there's constantly people I pass by that coughs. As in, at any moment, if I stop and listen, someone is coughing.

And the worst of the offenders cough... slightly angled up, no covering and big breath to maximize the expulsion of sputum so they feel better.

Coughing expulses droplets at 24m/sec and affect a range of 6m and stays in the air for 10 min. And these people, due to lack of disease prevention education, will walk down the whole street like that constantly coughing.

 

[guidooo]

Important information about the outbreak, from Reddit:

And i thought it was only a bat related infection going unfunny and thought after the outbreak:

Please humanity: don't try to catch a bat. Don't fry a bat. Don't eat a bat, raw or fried. Don't visit a marketplace where bats are sold either dead or alive. Just let a bat be a bat.

 

[MP3Mike]

Important information about the outbreak, from Reddit:

I marked that funny, but it is more scary that anybody might possibly believe that. (And I bet I know someone that does believe that.)

 

[Causalien]

In Germany and Spain elderly nursing home is not affected, in US a lot of cases are older people.

If ACE2 receptor is key. Then Germans should have more infected than Spain. It is nice to have similar demographic and health care to observe now. Both Germans and Spaniards are pretty fit compared to the US if you look at heart diseases and diabetes. So it might be one reason why USA has more cases of death.

 

[bkp_duke]

Important information about the outbreak, from Reddit:

Anyone that believes this. Please hit me up. I've got a scorching deal on some OCEAN FRONT property in Montana for you.

 

[EVNow]

Also maybe interesting, you can't get infected "over the air" unless someone spits into your mouth. Its not even a problem to shake hands he said but you need to wash them often and long and be sure you don't touch your face before.

Thats not true. The virus gets dispersed in droplets when the infected person coughs/sneezes. The droplet can land on a surface - and someone else can touch the surface a day later - and then touch their face and they can get the infection.

 

[X Fan]

If ACE2 receptor is key. Then Germans should have more infected than Spain. It is nice to have similar demographic and health care to observe now. Both Germans and Spaniards are pretty fit compared to the US if you look at heart diseases and diabetes. So it might be one reason why USA has more cases of death.

maybe, but the recent four in Washington state were from a nursing home with very sick/older residents.

I suspect that if the virus hit a similar European nursing home, the results would be the same.